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Guest Zero

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Close was more of the same.  Good thing we didn't sell that ladder (5865) - XJO closed at 5868.80 down about 12.  This is one of the golden rules of binaries - don't let the price of the binary over-rule your analysis.  

There was a riskier ladder (hourly) 5867 but that was a buy for 54 at 3:50pm.  That was over-priced then, so not interested (even though it would have gone to 100).  

Range range range.  That was the story of the day.  China has weakened some more after 4pm but since has stabilised.  

 

Big picture things are still brewing...

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Just to wind up the challenge for the week (see message 59 in this thread).  

The starting balance was $5000 (or 5000 pounds - doesn't matter to me - trades would be the same, or better as you would have more AUD to trade with using pounds). 

Monday - two binaries posted, buy at 31 (and 50) and 38.  Could easily do 10 contracts for each. So that's 69 and 62 profit.  There was a 50 buy for the same binary, at 3:52pm.  181 total.

Now that the balance has grown above $5000, can easily do 10 contracts every trade.  They were all pretty well timed too so should be legit.  

Tuesday sell 72 and buy 41 = 131 total.

Wednesday (off-base but posted live) - 49 and 25 buy, 80, 77, and 64 sell = 345 1pm, end of day 50.  395 total.

Thursday buy 41 and 35 = 124 total.

Friday buy 34 and 46 1pm = 130 total

 

Total 181+131+395+124+130 = 961 * 10 contract, $10 per point (or pounds)

 

$96,100.

 

That was a good week - Wednesday 1pm unusual, and some cheap prices also not the average.  But anyway. Check the math - or I will too.  Posted here too, somewhere, if someone really doubts.    

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The weekend somehow erased the 200pt fall of the Dow from the collective minds of traders so that on Monday everyone was keen to buy.  There was a strong lead from the Dow futures on the open, and the SPI opened strongly, had a slight pullback, then ranged higher.  Selling kicked in at the first high, just before 12pm, dropping the market a good 20pts, but then into 1pm it rallied back strongly to be near the highs (hence the ranging higher - large range).  The bigger players were selling into the initial strength.  

All of this nicely under control.  Then in the afternoon it was put on autopilot, and ranged at the highs, about a  15pt range.  Still selling off a touch at these levels by the bigger players, yet the price is holding its ground.  Just on 3:38pm there was a second rally up about 5pts to bring some binaries into play.  They have been cheap!  

There was a 20-30pt range for 31 which is cheap considering the XJO was +17.60.  That is now in the money by 2pts which has set up an interesting trade - the lower binary 10-20pt range is now 52.  So that is a better buy if the selling pressure suggests a fall.  

There was another interesting trade before 1pm that highlights the strength of using digital100's (binaries).  At 11:32 I thought the 20-30pt range binary was the one to trade, and it looked cheap at 38buy, considering there was still 1.5hours till expiry, and only 3pts needed for it to rally.  But then the market dropped about 12, meaning it was dead, worth about 10 to buy and looking certain that it would expire worthless.  But on expiry it would have been worth 100, ie correct and a good trade.  Having entered the trade with a pre-defined risk, you didn't have the drama of a stop-loss, or wondering if you should close the position for a loss to prevent a worse loss etc.  You were sitting on a loss, but it couldn't get any worse.  And then on a rally it came good and you could have closed it out sometime for a small loss or a small gain (if you didn't think it had the legs to reach 100), or sit on it till expiry and make the full 100.  

I was too slow to post this trade into the close - took off as I starting writing this at 3:36pm.  But IG are wrong in their pricing to be blunt - in the money 49buy, out of the money (10-20) 61 buy XJO +22.  They can still get lucky and it close in the lower range, but if they're wrong...  Because of this mispricing, you can wait a touch to let the trade progress.  I did like the higher range, but the continual selling pressure would make me wait and expect 10-20.  That is overpriced so my second buy of the 5885 ladder for 53 was probably the better option (at 3:32pm).  

 

Dow futures have been up about 70 most of the day, the Nikkei actually weaker by about 100pts (0.1 % almost) yet China was up by 1% early on - but that has since faded.  

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Steady on the close as expected, XJO 5886.00 up 17.20.  Ladder (5885) safe as is the 10-20 range.  You can see how binaries require a bit of strategy and making trades up on the go as the market moves.  

BHP and RIO up 1.4% today, and the big banks almost 1%.  Selling has persisted after the cash close so despite the positive day the sellers have taken advantage of the rally.  Volume less than average for the cash market, a touch above average for the SPI.  

The Dow has come off a touch too.  Yet these prelims can often be trumped during the US session.  

$AUD has been positive for most of the day, but that is fading.  Not much of a move to start with.  The USDJPY is strengthening from early strength.  

 

 

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Quite a strong day, with an expected range moving higher after 1pm.  Strong buying continuing now 3:37pm, making new highs and ticking things over into a new binary range (the lower range now a 49 buy).  Has been doing that all day - range, surge range surge.  On open we rallied, then sold off strongly, which rebounded and then popped higher, ranging into 1pm with steady buying.  The Dow was +30 and China +20.  I saw a binary early on which I watched into 1pm - oddly at 12:55 it was priced at 31 - a steal.  The good thing with slow moving markets that reverse quickly with little time to go is that you get some great binary trades.  This was one of them - expiring at 100, the XJO +30.60 (so just over the line).  Hard to anticipate, so you just have to be watching real time for about 20mins prior.

 

From sort of nowhere, the Dow surged to +70, China to +81 (which is over 2%) and the Nikkei +135 - that was 12pm and probably related to China.  Lifted us a touch, and the buying now into the close of day is a continuation of that momentum.  Along with the fact that we are closed tomorrow (ANZAC Day !) - the night session tonight and tomorrow night will be open.  

As of now the binaries aren't really priced attractively.  The ladder 5925 and the range 30-40 are 2-3pts out of the money, yet are almost even money to sell/buy.   Would want better prices for that risk.  

 

The AUD is up a touch, but our inflation data (CPI) was mixed, with headline inflation down a touch v last month and expectations, yet the trimmed mean (apparently what the RBA prefers) was as expected but 0.1% higher than previously.  So meaningless as a single data point. 

 

Might keep my powder dry so to speak for the close.  There are signs that the algo's could be happy here (for the XJO) yet the buying pressure is holding the line.  There might be a sneaky trade in the dying minutes, but 1pm was ok (if traded).

 

BHP and RIO the two main drags on the market today, the banks up over 1%.  Odd - maybe a local defensive play.  RIO down over 2%, which I don't know off hand what that could be.  BHP only down 0.2%.

Gold was down about $1 early in the day, but with that 12pm surge changed and is now up over $2.   

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Strong selling as expected on the close and continuing now.  The XJO closed 5921.60 up about 35 - so those binaries would have been safe - there is no spoon.  Yet you feel a bit ripped off for not getting better prices. 

The XJO did put in an algo determined high too as mentioned.   

The selling now is giving back most if not all of the post 1pm gains.  Might be a busy close considering the public holiday - maybe some covering now - presto.

 

Day off tomorrow for the SPI so radio silence for the posting.  

 

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After a day off, the SPI had an interesting night session - took off then kept that range for most of the session.  That was despite the negative lead Tues night, and that the EU/UK were still digesting those moves.  The positive close from Wall St. this morning kept the SPI strong, and that flowed on into our open.  

Yet some selling kicked in early, dropping it a touch, but it then rallied to a high.  Didn't want to trend higher, but set up for a range, which slowly relaxed back down near the early lows. One of our big banks (Westpac) got a sell rating from UBS, which may have started the general weakness for our big banks - the main reason for the XJO to fall today.  Miners only down 0.2% v 2-3% for the big banks.  

China also didn't help - at 12pm ish it was hit and down over 50, about 1.5%.  Double Whammy for us.  Dow futures positive by 25, the Nikkei up over 100.  

After lunch that negative slow-mo fall continued, making new lows until about 3pm when we kicked higher, keeping the afternoon session a range.  The buying strength has increased since 3pm, and I was watching some binaries 10mins ago when I started typing.  Expected a positive close, saw a range binary (down 0-10 buy at 273:51pm) and a ladder really cheap - the price relaxed a touch, binaries were too cheap to start with and got cheaper before the relax.  Now just before lock-out the better deal (ladder 5910 buy 33 3:51pm) is in the money (irrelevant - the expiry is all that matters).  

 

4pm and the Dow has been hit a bit down 26, the DAX has fallen back from earlier levels (50 to 35) and the FTSE also (14 to 7).  

 

Strong volume on the SPI overnight and today, and the XJO is also quite strong particular Westpac.  

 

Edit - JP was the wrong bank to put a sell on Westpac - it was UBS.

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Cash close XJO 5910.80 down 10.80.  Don't know if that's a coincidence or the aglo's being weird - their fingerprints are all over today.  Precise.  The preferred ladder binary was a good trade, 33 to 100.  Despite that, I expected a positive close which was good until the last 10sec, the last few seconds really hit hard.  The internal correlation between the SPI and the XJO is what kept me safe, and possibly why IG were underpricing their binaries.  There would be some stronger reasons too - but this might have been in the mix.

 

Still a bit of weakness on the EU open.  ECB tonight.  

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The first 10seconds of the open today gave away the day's expected evolution.  Despite the strong lead, we didn't push higher, with the cash reflecting the overnight move but then selling off.  The SPI faltered a little after the open, moved back up to a high before beginning its slow snooze downwards.  That high (intra-day so to speak) has just been niggled, but not touched - about 5.5hours apart - still holding.  See these algo's don't goof off like a human would.  Anyway, 12pm a brief 1pt lower low, then ranged above here into 1pm.  Binaries easy for IG to price so nothing to talk about.  Then come 2pm, then market has ranged or mini-trended back higher as expected (posted somewhere online before the market opened).  Steady buying pressure in this afternoon move to counter the selling of the morning.  Makes sense...  Friday, always a tidy day and close (due to the weekend).  Now there would be a few binaries being set up.  The 5945 ladder was the most interesting, but there is time to wait and see.

 

The broader context seems to have the Dow down about 50-60 during the session.  The Nikkei kept strong up over 100, and China a mixed bag, being up 15 about 11:30, then falling in the afternoon to be down about 15.  DAX "futures" (ie IG's cash market) are strong up 60 v the FTSE up 20.

 

The next 10mins would be make or break for binaries.  IG a touch under-baked with the 5945 ladder in the money (barely) but being priced at 30 buy - that's bad. I'd buy it just because its bad.  A good one to watch...

 

The XJO has nothing really to show - BHP down 0.2%, RIO up 0.2%, small gains for most banks, except the CBA down over 1% yet Macquarie up over 2.5%

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I actually bought it because it was the right trade, not because it was bad - ie badly priced, contrary to my post.  I would have added another lot of contracts however just because it was badly priced.  Bought, starting at 3:33pm the ladder 5845 for 42.  Then for reasons unknown (unknowable even it was so weird) grabbed some for 21 buy, 28 buy at 3:55pm and then even at 3:58pm 37 buy.  Easily add as many contracts as you wanted in those time-frames as the price was the same.  

I also snuck in a 5944 hourly ladder to pay for my higher ladder binaries, and this was priced more accurately but still cheap at a 43 buy (XJO was 5943.60.

 

Now to add to the weirdness - come 4pm lets unleash the buying algo.  Market - XJO and SPI pushed up to days highs.  The SPI has gone to the moon (almost) after the 4:10pm cash close with continual strong buying.  The XJO closed at a new high set in the blackout 10mins between 4pm and 4:10pm.  Close was 5953.60 - up 42.80.  

 

So before the weekend and when the cash market closes - lets go nuts.  Anyway,despite me saying Friday's are tidy - the move was still very precise.  Just nonsense. 

 

Yet the aim is to make money, and say 79+72+58+63+57 = 329, 10 contracts at least $32900 to close the day/week.  

 

What is a bigger mystery to me - why no one trades this.  I am giving it away gratis.  

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Good point, and thanks for contributing, i think that perhaps though there is a lot of work gone into the commentary many will still find it all a bit cryptic especially if they are not well versed in binaries and ladders etc. Perhaps you could point to some good educational material which would enable a better understanding of the basics. Also useful to know is how are you using the AUS200/S+P (XJO) and the AUS200 Futures (SPI) to help in the decision making?

 

Thanks again.

 

 

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Hi   Thanks for the post and good point.  I will try and add some simple ideas/concepts/basics in the next days to help.  I don't know of any educational material to link to sorry, and I don't think I could teach how I watch the SPI in detail - mostly intuitive these days.  I thought of branching out into the DAX/FTSE or Dow (concepts might carry over), but haven't the time.

 

It might be helpful for me to try and outline some of the thinking for digital 100's - it is a bit different to futures/CFD's but once you've taken the red pill....   

 

But sorry for rabbiting on while not being helpful.  

 

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, thanks for any additional input you can muster. I understand the problem of trying to teach and have mentioned before how some skills are just not transferable and so learning by experience is the way but any tips and clues would be most helpful. 

 

As you say, to outline some of the thinking behind the decisions would also be most helpful to the many readers of the thread, thanks.

 

https://www.ig.com/uk/digital-100s-trading

 

https://www.ig.com/za/educational-videos

 

bin1.PNG

(on the ed vids page slide the slider along a fifth of the way to find the digi 100 vid.

 

 

https://www.financemagnates.com/binary-options/brokers/ig-group-renames-binary-options-product-digital-100s/

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A one-move-wonder sort of day for the SPI, which is not uncommon. Early trading was a bit confused, with a small rally fading to a low, over an hour or so (a few skirmishes up and down, but a tight 15pt range).  Then 12pm and China seemed to give us the bid as we raced higher by about 25pts.  Then we ranged at this level into 1pm, with some selling at these higher prices.  I expected that and spied some value with the up 30-40 range binary. It was a buy at 51 (probably 45-55 during the 20mins till expiry) with the XJO at +31, 12:38pm.  It was cheap because the surge seemed out of the ordinary and IG's pricing seemed to expect a slight pullback - which is common sense, but not what happened into 1pm.  XJO 5984.40 up 30.80.

Then we relaxed a touch, but the buying kicked in after 2pm, taking the XJO and SPI to new highs by a few points.  Ranging again at these new levels, tight range 10pts.  Decent buying strength, which you'd expect to hold up into the close.  

 

China seemed to be the driving force, up 0.7% like the XJO (0.6%).  Dow futures were also up 30 early, to 50 after 1pm, and then/now 80-ish 3:51pm.  The Nikkei was positive but not interested. DAX futures up 29, FTSE up 13.  $AUD down 150pips, not much really.

On the cash market the big banks are up 1% or more, and BHP down a little while RIO up a little.  End of month today, so that might be influencing some of the trading decisions globally.  Some cheapish binaries now, 7mins to go.  The 5985 ladder 45 buy, and the 30-40 range a buy at 49, while the 20-30 range is the same, 49 buy.  XJO +30.40 at 5984.00.

 

Seeing as it is so borderline, and 1pt might be significant, it is often better to wait and watch until closer till expiry.  You will probably get similar prices.  There has been slight selling pressure in the last 10mins, yet whether that is enough to offset the general PM trend is the question.   

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Waiting often is the better trade, and this arvo it was.  It did give better prices, but for shorts.  However that would have been a bit of a on the spot intuition.  I noted a 58 sell for the 5985 ladder.  IG upped their prices quite quickly - while I was posting (making my post redundant before I posted it!), so the cheap binaries would have been overpriced and not worth trading.  But the selling pressure, and internal dynamics of the SPI and XJO were making it an even bet buy or sell.  

Closed 5982.70 yet the SPI was pretty much unch.  One of those tricky closes.  

The real action was after the cash closed with really serious heavy selling (end of month?) knocking the SPI down.  It since bounced back, and the size of the move was huge, but the short sharp dump was noticeable.  

 

Not much of a reaction from US futures in my opinion to the Korean news over the weekend.  See what tonight brings...

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Guest EA-trader

You are spending a lot of energy on ASX, but rewards are smaller, cause index is like a grandmother, very slow.

 

Have you tried Hang Seng?It is like rocket when it is volatile.

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Guest Zero

I'll give you grandmother....  As if the SPI/XJO heard that remark as it rallied higher today despite the weak overnight lead and general flat-weak markets in Asia.  

On the open we rallied hard 22pts, had a breather while the cash market opened, then pulled back a bit before surging higher.  I expected a ranging start (so not a fall as the Dow would have suggested) but not the surge - that put my expectations off just a bit so I sat on the sidelines.  Come 12pm and 54pts higher, the SPI ranged in a 10pt range, with selling kicking in there and then.  It was setting up for some nice binaries, with the 6015 hourly ladder binary a sell at 51 12:50pm and the up 20-30 range binary a buy at 41 (too cheap!) 12:55pm.  Good (luck not skill) timing as at 12:56 the market got hit 2 pts which dropped the XJO from +30.40 to +28.70.  Weirdest thing it stayed there for 2 minutes!  Work that out.  1pm binaries expired in the money at 100 XJO6011.90 +29.20.

 

After lunch the market ranged at high, with selling being absorbed by big players.  Tight range, and controlled moves.  There was a clear market and day high at about 2:41pm which you could take to the bank.  Instead at 3:16pm there was a really (too) cheap binary - up 30-40 daily for 30 buy.  A long way out but with my expectations it was the best time to buy.  XJO was +29 at the time.

The range is continuing into the close.  

 

Dow has been up about 50 most of the day, but was only +25 say before our surge.  Nothing else followed.  The Nikkei down about 40 (was -110 early) and China down about 23.  $AUD up 100 or so points.  Everything (big) on the XJO up over 1% except RIO which is down a touch, perhaps due to ASIC (our regulator) threatening further action.  

 

DAX -7 FTSE +3 at 3:55pm, so there's not much interest in anything on their open.  

 

Binaries are alive here though, and the 6015 ladder is too cheap at 49 buy. The XJO is 6015.80.  The range binary already bought - now too expensive.  Lets see...

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Guest Zero

Thank you IG is what everyone should be saying (if you traded that ladder binary).  For some reason just after posting, the price dropped (the market came off 1pt) way way too far.  I was buying at 41, then 36, then even 26.  Really too cheap considering the XJO was at 6014.60 (only had to rally 0.4).  As with binaries it could have been a weak close and that binary go to zero, but I expected a stronger close - and stronger than it did.  Just snuck home by the way, so it wasn't an easy trade so to speak.  Just well rewarded.  XJO closed 6015.20 up 32.50.  Volume was above average for the banks, and a touch below average for BHP and RIO.  

 

Seeing as it was an expected non-event, I forgot about the RBA.  It met as per usual and kept our rates on hold at 1.50%.  Been like that for a record length of time.  Will probably read some transcript to see if they are going to change their mind.  But for now, carry on as is it seems.  

 

Curious what tonight brings.  The SPI is holding its afternoon range, and unless the Dow plays catch-up we are a touch out of step with everyone else...

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Guest Zero

Deja-counter-rally day on the ASX with another positive day, bucking the overnight lead again, and the flat context in Asia.  Quite interesting to ponder - nothing's really changed, so a few big players, locally or international, have business to do and aren't ashamed to do it.  

 

I expected a weaker start then a decent bounce into 1pm.  We got a ranging start and then a slow melt-up into 1pm.  Ranged a bit then made new highs after 12pm.  Those highs held for three touches - and possibly a fourth soon (now 3:33pm)  YET interesting - a bit of off-loading going on up here. 

 

The Dow has been negative most of the session, about -30, China just staying positive, the Nikkei keeping a small loss.  Compared to the XJO being up 0.6%.  The gains are mixed, with BHP the only real notable negative, and only 0.2% weaker so nothing.  

 

Binaries were easy-ish for IG to price into 1pm.  Actually now we are back at the high (no higher) and there are no well priced binaries to trade.  Selling a ladder (expecting the market to fall) is too cheap and the range is easily priced as the XJO is mid-range.  You'd expect a slight weakening on the close (I would I guess) yet a larger fall is possible but not worth the risk.  Still 20mins to go. 

Anyway, 1pm again there was no range binary - I was watching at about 12:15pm and the 30-40 was cheap, but as soon as I looked (quantum mechanics binary)  the market took off and stayed higher, so the binary was priced out of value.  Yet at 12:52pm there was good value for buying a 6050 ladder binary.  The XJO was coming off a touch, and the binary priced a bit cheap - 42buy with the XJO at 6050.00 exact.  It dropped a little more and the binary price fell to 33 - a definite buy to me.  Probably went as low as 28 but anyway, at 12:57 there was a 3pt surge that pushed things nice and safe, yet that relaxed a touch into 1pm but didn't muck up the trade, 6050.30 at 1pm.  Not bad really - a $670 per contract profit.  

 

Right now the XJO is just above 6050 (6050.80).  Yet the ladder binary is priced at 37-45 - which is too low, and despite me expecting some weakness on the close, the risk-reward is above 50 and so I'd leave it.  The ladder binary has the rule that it expires at 100 if the price is above the strike price of the ladder level so you'd buy it if you think the market is going to rise above that level and sell it if you think it is going to fall.  There are 5pt increments for the ladder, or 10 as you go further out of the money.  So if you think it is going to rise or fall by more than 5pts, you can buy or sell these ladders.  They are priced cheaper (buy out of the money) or closer to 100 (in the money) which reflects IG's expectations.  Risk and reward.  For example, the hourly 6047 ladder binary is priced at about 69-79.  So the market would have to fall over 3pts for this to expire at zero (if you sell you want it to go to zero - ie. you don't want the condition of the binary to be fulfilled, and the condition is that the price is above the ladder strike on expiry). Likewise, it is in the money by over 3pts, so it is more certain to expire at 100 and so you are only going to make 20pts if it does expire at 100 (ie. above the strike of 6047).  

Unlike directional trading where you seek to expect a certain size move, for this type of trading with binaries (close to expiry and close to at-the-money) you are only making one decision: will the price of the XJO be above or below the strike - which right now is 6050.  The SPI is at 6034-45 and the XJO 6051.10 - both just went up, the SPI by 1pt and the XJO by about 0.6.  So in the next 9mins, will the SPI and XJO rise or fall say two points and then stay there or improve in the lock-out 10mins.  

 

You can see range binaries are a bit easier in these flat markets.  The level of 6050 for the XJO is the equivalent of being up 35 for the day.  This is right in the middle of the "up 30-40" range binary so priced easily.  As equally likely to rise or fall 5pts, so those either side will be priced according to these expectations, and seeing as the range for the whole afternoon is about 10pts, for it to move 5 in 10mins is unlikely.  Therefore IG can price these binaries close to 100 - 100 meaning it stays in the range, and if you believed that you would buy them.  Often not worth selling them, as the spread washes out the benefit.  If you think it is going to move outside the range, you BUY the range above or below the current range.  As of now the up 40-50 range is 16-31, the in-the-money range 30-40 is 64-79 and the lower range 20-30 at 0-14.  The XJO has popped higher at 6053.20 +38.00.

 

Then there are the hourly ladders, and the 20min ladders, which are exactly the same as the daily but can have different levels for the ladder, and so provide better value.  There is a 6052 for example, which is now probably a good trade, but depends on the price...49-60 for in-the-money 6053.60.  A touch cheap (55 sell would be better) or a touch risky to put it another way. 

 

The SPI just made a new high, the XJO probably too, meaning that it is a tricky close.  I would be happy with the 1pm trade - really good value - and wait.  

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Guest Zero

Interesting that the DAX is up 70 and the FTSE 26 pre-open.  Another not really following the Dow - probably saw a lot of it last night...

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The big difference in the indices is that dax and nikkei have been banging against their respective weekly chart resistance levels (light red on all charts) for some time now while waiting for dow to make a more positive move. AUS200 has been using the time to catch up.

 

indy.PNG

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Guest Zero

Good trading lessons this afternoon - watching now, the SPI is making a new high after a serious dump into 4:10pm XJO close, rallying 12 since then to a new high.  YET it was clear (90% certainty) the XJO had made it's high early in the afternoon and kept that high 3mins before its close.  The SPI waited till it was closed, then resumed the rally to whatever its doing up here.  

 

The close panned out as expected, weaker, but the drop was intense.  About 8pts, yet the XJO only 3, 6050.20 up 35.00.  So the higher 6052 ladder was the right trade and waiting and watching that to come into play was the good tactic.  The risk-reward a touch too high.  

Volumes on the cash market a touch under average (banks about average) but the SPI quite strong.  Serious stuff going on up here.  And we keep moving higher, with decent buying pressure.  Nothing really correlated with it (Dow or EU/UK or Asia basically unch).  

 

The thing is - common sense would tell you to sell the SPI (uncorrelated strength) - you'd be margin called by now for that trade.  

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Guest Zero

Cracks appearing in the break-away surge as selling kicked in all day.  Prices still rose - interesting.  

Anyway, a small rally on the open, despite the lead (again) fell back, then bounced back to highs and new highs into 1pm.  Would have been some good binaries.  The move was sort of symmetrical - up 27, down 23, up 27, then ranged, until about 20mins into 1pm.  That would have taken the XJO from the 40-50 range over into the above 50 range, and the binary would have been probably just near a 50buy. 

For this rise, the Dow was flat, the Nikkei down 120 and China down a similar % (to the Nikkei) -17.  The $AUD was strong (some positive data might have helped) up 230.  

Yet across this rise and then over lunch and into the afternoon the selling continued.  The high was set (algo's tipped their hat) and the price fell as the selling continued, but this settled into a range, a decent range of about 20pts.  It is just relaxing back now near the lower half of the range (3:48pm).  Not enough to bring any binaries into play.  The 6095 ladder is out of the money and a buy at 29, which seems fair-cheap.  The selling is by big players, and has intensified on this down leg of the range.

You'd expect it to continue into the close, but...

The Dow and China turned positive this afternoon, up a few tenths of a percent, but the Nikkei has stayed weak, -130.  The Aussie ($AUD) is holding its gains.  The DAX and FTSE are priced down about 30 by IG at 3:51pm.  That is more in line with the US.  

 

Another 0.7% gain by the ASX - third day in a row (at least) and the Dow has fallen about 400pts over those three days.  You can see why logical ideas and rules for trading never work.  

I was expecting a more positive end to the range for the day, so it better show some form now or else...  

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Guest Zero

Hi   Thanks again for providing that nice visual weekly context.  I should look at it more often.  The question is (and the associated general discussion that could possibly melt-down the forum) : did anyone sell at the resistance, or buy expecting the surge through and beyond.  Or sell, get stopped out, and then have the trading psyches to buy (which is impressive).    

That is THE "thing" with TA.  

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Guest Zero

Don't know what I would have done if my threat didn't come about... Yet was saved by the unbelievable weirdness going on.  The rally kick-in as suggested right after my posting, helped by China (and the Dow) surging.  Then the SPI ranged in the 10min lockout, higher than the 4pm level.  But with about 1min to go the selling just capitulated the SPI and it dropped about 7pts, meaning that 6095 ladder was dead (the XJO at 4pm was 6095.80.

Yet the last 30sec say saw buying reverse that fall and take the SPI higher, and the XJO to close at 6098.30.  Good value for the 6095 ladder at 29 buy (was 22 even).  

Things have settled a bit now, yet China has kept its strong close.  

Vols. on the XJO about average, the miners a touch less than average volume, but good gains, BHP 1% RIO 1.7%.  

$AUD kicking along a bit too, now 333pips.  

 

Interesting to consider - today a good old-school algo controlled day.  Things may not make sense from whatever analysis perspective you use, but it is still well controlled.  

 

(Why have I got 55 notices on the forum... better check that out).

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Hi   you're welcome. Another interesting thing I noticed on the AUS200 chart was the high proportion of opening blue 4 hour bars in this recent up trend (that's the bar starting 0:00 (BST) and marked with a red arrow) and that they didn't usually get much in the way of  follow through, either price reversed a bit or just went sideways for the afternoon session. 

Note too that price has now reached the weekly resistance level and has the monthly just above it (light red and dark red lines).



AUS200(£)H4.png

 

 

The dax 1 min on yesterday's open looked like this, there was an early (euro open) faint then the London open high vol push and then pullback which ended with a high vol pin bar followed by a strong continuation bar. That was the opening but then I thought those large bars about 8:30 looked exhaustive so ducked out. Was then looking for a  V reversal that didn't come and instead watched the channel (I hate channels, when are you supposed to get in?)

 

 

 

 

GER30(£)M1.png

 

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Guest Zero

Well spotted   That's why I invested the time to get familiar with binaries.  If you miss that open (which is often mostly the night session so you'd have to get in then) then the day is over unless you can trade those beloved channels.  Binaries are perfect for this type of action in my opinion.

 

A possible reason to back-explain these moves:  The market is front-running the expected "Big Bank" results.  (In Australia, there are 4 large banks with profits over 1billion dollars each and who pay a div. of about a 6% yield.  CBA, NAB, WBC and ANZ).  NAB today - undercooked ie lower than last year, not sure about expectations but it fell today.  That should mean two other of our big banks should report soon.  They are the only thing that can move our market so strongly and independently of the rest of the world so to speak.  

 

Anyway, thanks again for your posts.

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