Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Nikkei 225 warning global stock meltdown see daily chart MACD

Recommended Posts

According to moving averages , the moving averages have power to send prices lower? I am tying to learn from forum guru!

Share this post


Link to post

I was looking at the (edit) weekly chart over weekend and thinking what a fine bullish reversal candle that was off resistance turned support line and about the 100 ema. Tried to test the low yesterday but looking like failing. Retest 22504 next?

 

 

JPN225(£)Weekly.png

Share this post


Link to post

Always brilliant commentary . I've been a way a while doing other stuff but had to come back with this observation of the Nikkei 225 which I've been tracking for years. Long timeframe but worth noting. Hopefully worse case scenario can be averted.

Share this post


Link to post

What would happen to the YEN if this is the beginning of a bear market?

 

"

TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan's unprecedented buying of exchange-traded funds leave the central bank increasingly vulnerable to a stock market downturn when it comes.

The BOJ held a staggering 20.3 trillion yen ($182 billion) worth of Japanese-equity ETFs as of Sept. 30, up 4.4 trillion yen from six months earlier, data released Tuesday shows. That figure is 2.5 times the bank's capital of 8.1 trillion yen and could top 3 times by the end of the fiscal year next March"

 

"Estimates show that the market level where the central bank's paper gains would turn to losses lies at around 16,000 for the Nikkei Stock Average, compared with the index's current level of around 22,500. The longer the central bank continues buying, the higher this break-even point will rise."

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Tokyo-Market/BOJ-seen-sitting-on-ETF-time-bomb-as-pile-reaches-180bn

Share this post


Link to post

Hi . 

Interesting bespoke macd settings 121, last cross over early 2015 but what about your BBands? or are they saved for the lower time frames. 

The central banks are thinking about having a go at attempting to ease off the stimulus pedal but what will happen??? 

I was looking at the recent COT report and the interesting steep rise in volume for indices this 1st quarter (centred on Dow), there was an initial high volume drop but levelled out since and large speculators still remain net long. Interesting.

 

vol1.PNGvol2.PNGUS30(£)Weekly.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

This MACD idea was just something I stumbled upon in my research and looked interesting. I have not tested it going back decades. It just appeared something useful for the present 10-15 years. Whenever I see a cross, I just think hope the G's will be able to deal with it. Of course there is no guarantee this trend pattern will repeat, but there are a lot of fundamentals at play out there at the moment which could make things repeat again like before.  I don't think my Bollinger Band ideas come in useful here. I tried 800 instead of 20 but think they just add confusion. I like playing around a lot with averages 800, 500, and 34 and that's how I discovered this trend pattern.

Share this post


Link to post

Although I agree that technical analysis is great for increasing the probability of a scuessfull execution and gives evidence to suggest where a market could be moving, as well as being useful for gauging entry and exit points, I feel it makes up maybe 40% of my trade decision FOR ME. Obviously different things for different people work...

 

... but what I wanted to get in this thread is a thoughtful input on the fundamental and technical crossover. For example - what is the underlying fundamental factor that could initiate the sell off? Trumps shenanigans could be a factor, but less so for the nikkei I would expect. Increase in global inflation is too obvious and the central banks would be not only raising those soooo slowly but also have other macro figures firmly in their sights. There don’t seem to be any mega geo political events on the horizon. (Brexit maybe but again, maybe only for the uk and it’s a ‘known’ event).

Share this post


Link to post

Successive lower highs and higher lows makes for an explosive mix on the 4 hour chart.

 

JPN225(£)H4.png

Share this post


Link to post

I like your thinking on this subject. All I know is that policy changes or disagreements between powerful forces can magnify normal cyclical trends. My MACD isn't really tradable as it plays out over a long period of time - probably of more value to an economist. I think it also worked for the Dotcom crash.

 

interesting reports I picked up recently:-

 

John Kicklighter posted on his twitter account yesterday he is a chief streategist at dailyFX.com owned by IG:

 

"Since the $SPX's run above its 200DMA was unceremoniously called to an end, here's the Dow's - 444 trading days. Longest since June 1987" (he shows a chart)

 

also

 

"Peter Schiff Warns 'Deep State' Unafraid To Crash The Market On Trump's Watch" reported by zerohedge.com 4/4/2018 and many other sites.

 

I've also heard said "What trade war more like trade squabble".

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,772
    • Total Posts
      40,506
    • Total Members
      50,908
    Newest Member
    François
    Joined 20/11/19 07:48
  • Posts

    • Ive been with IG for many years and whilst sceptical, and wary of the many bad vibes and rumours that come IG,s way  I have up till now  fended them off. However, I have to say that a recent couple of trades stopped out by large spikes have questioned my loyalty. GBPUSD was stopped out 19/11,  22.43 at 12938 ? 8 pips above charted price ??   USDCAD was stopped out on 18/11 22.05 at 13227, the highest price by any other broker platform was 13216 ?? 10 pips above !! I have emailed IG, but not heard a thing.  I think I am beginning to share most peoples views over this broker  
    • As good as Litecoin has been in the first half of 2019 it has been just as bad in the second half of 2019. It has literally given back all the gains. Those traders who trade both 'long' and 'short' will have made money on the move upwards and then also made money by shorting on the move downwards.  It is difficult to anticipate how Litecoin will do over the coming month but I think it is likely to take the lead from its father in Bitcoin. 
    • $200 will be an important and psychological price area. If this is breached then Bitcoin Cash could easily go down to the $140 price area. This would be a big blow to the bulls and also damage confidence in the asset.  Bears will be enjoying the move downwards and should be profiting from the current trend and price action.   
×
×