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OPEC FAILED TO REACH AN AGREEMENT!!!!


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Good follow of the news  In  truth this OPEC meeting was never going to decide anything - because they can't. OPEC was broken by US shale gas and oil production years ago, that is why Saudi has been more concerned with making a deal with Russia rather than other OPEC countries. 

There is no point in freezing production as output is at an all time high.

 



 

But look at the recent US production in the mix. OPEC are hamstrung.

 



 

They can't cut production or US will just fill the gap. So what now the chart? I would wait and watch, there is a big level just above and a big level just below. Once either is confirmed as broken would be the right time to act.

 

Brent Crude Daily

 



 

 

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Absolutely. This deal that has now failed is really going to make many countries really mad, especially the IMF, Central Banks, and all the OPEC and Non OPEC countries. America should have thought twice, before lifting those sactions on IRAN, as that was going to spell BIG trouble, and look what happened in January with the oil price. Although exiting for traders, unfortunetly this may be the start of a very ugly cycle in the oil market. Angola and Nigeria have already asked for bailouts because of oil, the scary thing is that their are countries in europe with economic links to these countries, hence why the IMF are not very pleased with this, especially with the effect this will have on inflation as well. USD JPY, USD CAD, & no doubt other currencies will be also be interesting to watch. 

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Yes but don't forget the other OPEC countries ride on the coat tails of Saudi, that is why Saudi has always ruled OPEC. Saudi, Russia, and the US dwarf the other oil producers by a long margin, the other nations are not big enough to change world production figures alone, and the US has broken OPEC. I repeat this post I made on Friday re; currently the world has too much oil therefore oil must be bearish.

 



 

 

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I agree casey, the issue as well is that europe's growth is stagant, as well as china, of which up until 2014, had a huge appetite of oil and other major commodities, once the bubble burst, all commodities headed south. In terms of Shale, what oil producers seem to forget, is that you can easily re-start shale production quite easily, therefore saudi-arabia knows that as soon as oil reaches $50, shale producers can be switched on. The oil glut will eventually level off, due to smaller rig counts in the US and -$500 billion of which has not been invested by oil companies. Therefore this will eat into the storage. But for now in the short-term oil will without doubt fall and countries and companies will unfortunetly suffer. 

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I think we all saw that coming and even some of the MSM did, thought most are reporting it like a "shock, horror!" happening.  the truth, as some have already point out there, is that a deal was impossible.  At best all they could do was make a deal to freeze at current levels without Iran.  They probably should have but this is as much about politics as anything else.  These guys need cash to keep their populations from rising up.  It is a massive fear factor that is driving their decision making and fear is a much stronger motivation than greed.

 

I see more of the same through the Summer and I just can't see the markets hacking that.  Sell in May?  I'd actually be saying April now, if I hadn't already sold a year ago that is...

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The irony, is that Russia was stating, that they did not need Iran to come to the table to agree to an oil freeze and the markets went on a bull run, but later on in the day on wednesday Iran stated it had no intention, hence why it turned negative the following day. As wise men have stated in the past, dont trust what the russians say lol. Oil no doubt would have fallen most likely further, had it not been a strike out Kuwait, however we will have to see if we surpass 61% Fib level today. 

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I actually believe the Russians would have done a deal without Iran but they are not part of OPEC and not embroiled in a regional struggle as Saudi and Iran are.  Saudi can't afford to lose face to Iran or they risk loosing a lot more...  As I said it is all about politics in that regions, I really wish the day technology allows us to get out from under the yoke of oil and this oppressive region comes sooner rather than later!

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Interesting quote from the venezuelas president just now from reuters: 

MOSCOW, April 18 (Reuters) – Intense pressure from the United States was one of the reason why OPEC and non-OPEC producers failed to reached a deal on freezing oil output in Doha on Sunday, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told reporters.

"The United States was behind the pressure. They have a problem with Venezuela, Russia... They are doing this for political reasons and are ignoring their own people suffering. Ask any oil company in the U.S. – they are all very sad because of what happened yesterday," he said.

So typical, its always someone elses fault when things go wrong, this is the guy that charged only 0.01p per litre, and now complains the US for its problems especially its inflation now 500%. 

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HaHa. This is brilliant stuff from Venezuela, everyone else was blaming Iran who were not there either. Venezuela is the failed socialist state left by Hugo Chaves that has even bigger oil reserves than Saudi but where people queue under guard of riot police to get into near empty shelved supermarkets.

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