Jump to content

The Big Collusion


Recommended Posts

So Japan Manufacturing PMI comes in at 48, that's in contraction territory, and while it may not yet officially be a recession (or depression in the case of Japan - BTW coming to a Western economy near you...) and the Nikkei rallies!  The Yen drops vs the USD, I assume because the speculators think the BoJ will drop more stimulus.  How long can this bad economic news is good news for the stock market go on?


After the dust has settled on the next big crash, and it is imminent in my view, I think the next big book and movie will be about collusion between government, central banks and the big commercial banks.  This is the only thing propping up the markets and eventually that will crack and when it does you don't want to be on the wrong side of it...


Banks are struggling to make money in an ultra low interest rate environment, poor lambs, so I think thee Fed is under pressure to raise them.  What happens when they do?


USD rallies hard (or already has on the rumour).  EURO and Yen fall in value, which is what the CBs want so no more stim for the markets.  Stock markets crash...  Gold?


Timing?  Haven't got a clue really but rate rise in the US is being tipped for the Summer.  Sell in May and go away just might be the ticket this time.  May/June shorting season is my tip.


Til then, trade what you see... (short term only if going Long the stock markets!)

Link to comment

The economy has been doing not so well for many years and even the DOW hit new highs while the economy was in this state! 


I don't think the banks are struggling to make money, they rake it in no matter what. They have been getting cheap (probably free) money from the central banks through QE, etc. The banks should have been lending this to the average Joe to help build the economy but the banks have just been pumping it into the stock markets. The banks (plus other large financial firms) have the ability to influence the markets in their favour simply from their massive amounts of money to play with, so I don't think they are struggling.


You think that bad news being good for the stock market is silly, I remember a few years ago that there was positive news for the US economy and that sent the markets down as it meant the fed were more likely to stop QE!

Link to comment



Bank earnings this quarter are firmly down, this, according to their own reporting, is due to low interest rates (and probably, as you say because of lower lending levels).  They are still making money just a lot less and what about the spectre of bad debts (debt has not gone down since the credit crunch).  What if the stock markets get the jitters (already has!) and the bond market falters?  Where will the banks make money in a falling market with low interest rates and bundles of bad debt loans?  Bank share prices haven't recovered anything like pre credit crunch levels for a reason, currently they are a bad bet.


You point re good economic news etc I fully agree with and it is the flip side of the bad news situation.  I think most of us seem to agree that the post credit crunch crash rally has been artificially stimulated by QE and ultra low interest rates have added to this and fueled debt expansion, despite that being a major part of the credit crunch crash.  In what parallel universe is any of this a good thing?

Link to comment

They could short the market? Maybe I am a bit cynical when it comes to the banks.


I agree none of it is a good thing and it does feel artificial. China's lessening demand for everything already sent the markets into a tumble not so long ago and I thought that could have triggered 'The fall' but the markets came back up. 


I think several countries in Europe still have high unemployment too.


There just doesn't seem to be a lot of coverage on the real issues with the economy.


Maybe we are just waiting for all the signs to hit home at once then maybe there will be a correction?

Link to comment

I'm cynical of banks too, I believe they colluded with the Fed and politicians to shore things up after the subprime scandal.  Or at least that the politicians were coerced into giving them a get out of jail free card (that being the public credit card...).  I wouldn't put anything past the banks but to short the market there has to be someone on the other side and given the size of these players that means another bank (of insurance company but surely they are wise to this now...) or the government.  In short (ha ha) they can't short the market if the market is crashing because no one will take the other side, the banks are the market makers really.


I suspect we will not get the kind of coverage we regularly hear on this, and other, forums from the MSM until it is all to late and the crash is well under way.  There are a few places where some are reporting the "truth" but they are not the mainstream.


I think we have already had a correction, in technical terms, followed by a rally but if the markets turn here that correction will not have been sufficient so look out below...  Even if we do get a Bull resumption it wont last much beyond last years all time highs before it crashes hard so why would you want to be invested in he market just to squeeze out a few last points, unless you had to be of course (like most fund managers and hedge funds in particular).

Link to comment

I love that guy, finally an economist I can agree with and honestly, I didn't write his script!


I love his point about maths.  In the London major debate last night Goldsmith issued a classic political put down to Khan when telling him his views were wrong by saying "it's just mathematics really..."  Davis has just told all the bank employed economists and Treasury departments that they cannot add...


Shame he called Omaba a Marxist, bit too extreme and dilutes his message alas, makes him out to be a bit of a crackpot...

Link to comment

A picture paints 1000 words!  Substitute BoJ for the Fed and you get what happened last night and that was in a BoJ do nothing scenario, what would have happened if they actually did something???  The World has gone bonkers...  It will all end in tears.

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment overnight, though a higher open is expected for the Dax. This flight to safety was triggered by news of an Iranian strike on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles, raising concerns over potential Israeli retaliation. Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar strengthened, though the Japanese yen weakened to a 30-year low against the dollar, highlighting that interest rates remain the primary market focus despite geopolitical risks. Oil prices dipped in Asian trading as the risk of Iranian retaliation was already priced in last week. While the US has stated it will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran, the volatility index remains near five-month highs, reflecting heightened market nervousness. Any further oil price increases could add to inflationary pressures, complicating central banks' efforts to control rising consumer prices. This week, markets will closely watch US economic data releases, including retail sales and comments from Federal Reserve officials, for clues on the monetary policy outlook amid persistent inflation concerns. The US earnings season is also underway, with mixed results from major banks getting the season off to a lacklustre start.  
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION:  Minor wave 3 DIRECTION: Upside in wave 3.     DETAILS: We are looking at either an extension in Minor wav 3 in the making, or else we are still in wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario is the one where the move off the 140$ bottom is not a wave 1 and we are still in a larger degree correction.       TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Wave {ii}   DIRECTION: Bottom in wave (c) of {ii}. DETAILS: We are looking at a clear three wave move in wave {ii} with a bottom soon to be in place, looking for the beginning of MGM2 at 165$ to provide support.               Welcome to our TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge, where we delve into Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) using Elliott Wave Technical Analysis. Let's dissect the market dynamics on both the Daily Chart and the 4H Chart as of April 15, 2024. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* On the Daily Chart, our analysis reveals a trending market characterized by impulsive mode and motive structure, positioned in Minor wave 3. The direction indicates upside momentum in wave 3. However, we are considering two potential scenarios: either an extension in Minor wave 3 or still within wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario suggests that the move from the $140 bottom may not be a wave 1, implying a larger degree correction. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4hr Chart* Here, we observe a counter trend market marked by corrective mode and flat structure, positioned in Wave {ii}. The direction hints at a bottom forming in wave (c) of {ii}. Our analysis identifies a clear three-wave move in wave {ii}, with a bottom expected soon. We anticipate support to emerge around the beginning of MGM2 at $165.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO. We have identified that RIO may have completed the ((ii))-green wave at the 114.88 low, allowing the ((iii))-green wave to open up to push much higher. We will continuously monitor and update not only RIO but also the TOP 50 ASX Stocks and provide the best forecasts. ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Minor degree, red) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((iii))-green of Wave 3-red Details: The short-term outlook suggests that wave ((ii))-green appears to have completed around 114.88, and wave ((iii))-green is now unfolding to push higher. Maintaining a price level above 121.10 would be advantageous and also serves as a strong support for this perspective. Invalidation point: 102.51       ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, green) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave iii-blue of Wave (iii)-purple of Wave ((iii))-green Details: The shorter-term outlook indicates that wave ((iii))-green is currently unfolding to continue pushing higher. The immediate targets could be around 134.68 and 139.59, or even further. Maintaining above the level of 125.10 would be advantageous, serving as both a support level and strengthening the bullish perspective. Invalidation point: 114.88       Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
  • Create New...