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Just an observation on daily pivots and the pin point accuracy with which they are often recognised and used as support and resistance levels intraday; 

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45 min vid on trendfollower trading for beginners, starts out a bit slow but further in is useful and practical and demonstrates well the reality of strike rates (bad) and return potential (good) for long term traders.

 

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Quick vid on symmetrical triangles showing how to confirm breakout points and targets. Like most else it's all about the mass expectation of movement.

 

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Trend consolidation phases often lead people to call a reversal far too early (along with 'I think' bias).

These occur on every time frame and correct identification is of prime importance.

Don't say 'I think', instead say 'If > then ...'

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Article on cumulative delta buy/sell volume incorporated into Wyckoff theory;

mboxwave.com/mcumulativedelta-indicator

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Posted (edited)

Using Support and Resistance in conjunction with a Moving Average.

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8m

7m

 

1) Define the overall trend with a long-term moving average 2) Look for a well-defined consolidation (preferably with horizontal boundaries) 3) Make sure there are several tests of pattern boundaries 4) Act on breakout above MA 5) Act on breakdown below MA

Edited by Caseynotes

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Tradeciety short video on the most important tip to finding high probability trade and chart patterns.

The sound is not too good but the principles are A1.

 

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Useful fairly extensive guide to bull and bear traps using text, diagrams and video.

One key point to add regarding any chart pattern is that when something becomes so obvious that everyone can see it the likelihood of a trap being set increases greatly.

https://www.tradeciety.com/bull-trap/

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If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

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The amount of info to digest and look over is overwhelming.

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4 hours ago, Mercury said:

If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

 

Is it worth the subscription fee?

I guess it probably is for the full-time professional trader.

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I guess most people that want to trade do some research, mainly the free information available on the internet yet around 80% of these traders fail, so either 80% of the traders are fools or the information they are reading is foolish, I do not believe 80% of the people are fools so I conclude that most of the information out there, free or otherwise is of limited use. You need to understand what you are doing and that you do it a virtual world, consider if you would do this in the real world at the real cost of a trade.

£1.00 pp is equivalent to 100 shares i.e. 100 shares rise by £0.01 and you make £1.00

if the price of a share/unit or indices is say 7500 that is £75.00 per share or unit so £1.00 pp is equal to 100 x £75.00 or £7,500 therefore if you trade say the FTSE @ around 7500 just £1.00 pp is £7, 500 and £10 pp is £75,000, £20 pp is £150,000

I would assume if you bought an asset for £75,000 you would be expecting it to rise in value but would you really sell it if it went down by £20 or even £50 no I am sure you wouldn't, so what I am trying to say is keep it real and understand what you are doing in this virtual world and it will help to keep you safe. 👿

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I've got a ton of books on trading, several of them from the recommended reading list of the Society of Technical Analysts diploma.  I have also picked up good resources on IG and recommendations by users here.  I'm pretty much saturated with info and have reached my limit until I have absorbed it (Elliot Wave Theory is still slightly cloudy for me me and I have no interest in Ichimoku stuff).

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

So why are you here? 👿

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4 minutes ago, Foxy said:

So why are you here? 👿

 

Slow assimilation with occasion setbacks of heavy indigestion.

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' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

Ok  I can tell you that, if you trade equities they are bullish 70% of the time i.e. don't look for highs to sell look for lows to buy and you increase your odds dramatically, it cost me £30,000 and 10 years to discover that is more important than anything you will find on the net!!!!! 👿

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12 hours ago, dmedin said:

' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

Years ago I was listening to a prop trader who told the story that one day he asked a manager at the firm, 'you've seen some really good successful traders come through this firm, what was it they did that was different to the average trader'. The reply was 'they didn't do anything different, they just did everything better'.

That's your Holy Grail and it would seem it comes from within rather than without.

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Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates.

20 min.

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17 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates.

20 min.

image.thumb.png.5d20d63c8beff847d11d9ebbc9bb10b1.png

 

That's great, there's a lot of good content on IG buried away that often gets missed because it's hard to find.

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Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time? 

Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?

 

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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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