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Just an observation on daily pivots and the pin point accuracy with which they are often recognised and used as support and resistance levels intraday; 

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45 min vid on trendfollower trading for beginners, starts out a bit slow but further in is useful and practical and demonstrates well the reality of strike rates (bad) and return potential (good) for long term traders.

 

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Quick vid on symmetrical triangles showing how to confirm breakout points and targets. Like most else it's all about the mass expectation of movement.

 

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Trend consolidation phases often lead people to call a reversal far too early (along with 'I think' bias).

These occur on every time frame and correct identification is of prime importance.

Don't say 'I think', instead say 'If > then ...'

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Article on cumulative delta buy/sell volume incorporated into Wyckoff theory;

mboxwave.com/mcumulativedelta-indicator

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Posted (edited)

Using Support and Resistance in conjunction with a Moving Average.

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8m

7m

 

1) Define the overall trend with a long-term moving average 2) Look for a well-defined consolidation (preferably with horizontal boundaries) 3) Make sure there are several tests of pattern boundaries 4) Act on breakout above MA 5) Act on breakdown below MA

Edited by Caseynotes

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Tradeciety short video on the most important tip to finding high probability trade and chart patterns.

The sound is not too good but the principles are A1.

 

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Useful fairly extensive guide to bull and bear traps using text, diagrams and video.

One key point to add regarding any chart pattern is that when something becomes so obvious that everyone can see it the likelihood of a trap being set increases greatly.

https://www.tradeciety.com/bull-trap/

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If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

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The amount of info to digest and look over is overwhelming.

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4 hours ago, Mercury said:

If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

 

Is it worth the subscription fee?

I guess it probably is for the full-time professional trader.

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I guess most people that want to trade do some research, mainly the free information available on the internet yet around 80% of these traders fail, so either 80% of the traders are fools or the information they are reading is foolish, I do not believe 80% of the people are fools so I conclude that most of the information out there, free or otherwise is of limited use. You need to understand what you are doing and that you do it a virtual world, consider if you would do this in the real world at the real cost of a trade.

£1.00 pp is equivalent to 100 shares i.e. 100 shares rise by £0.01 and you make £1.00

if the price of a share/unit or indices is say 7500 that is £75.00 per share or unit so £1.00 pp is equal to 100 x £75.00 or £7,500 therefore if you trade say the FTSE @ around 7500 just £1.00 pp is £7, 500 and £10 pp is £75,000, £20 pp is £150,000

I would assume if you bought an asset for £75,000 you would be expecting it to rise in value but would you really sell it if it went down by £20 or even £50 no I am sure you wouldn't, so what I am trying to say is keep it real and understand what you are doing in this virtual world and it will help to keep you safe. 👿

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I've got a ton of books on trading, several of them from the recommended reading list of the Society of Technical Analysts diploma.  I have also picked up good resources on IG and recommendations by users here.  I'm pretty much saturated with info and have reached my limit until I have absorbed it (Elliot Wave Theory is still slightly cloudy for me me and I have no interest in Ichimoku stuff).

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

So why are you here? 👿

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4 minutes ago, Foxy said:

So why are you here? 👿

 

Slow assimilation with occasion setbacks of heavy indigestion.

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' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

Ok  I can tell you that, if you trade equities they are bullish 70% of the time i.e. don't look for highs to sell look for lows to buy and you increase your odds dramatically, it cost me £30,000 and 10 years to discover that is more important than anything you will find on the net!!!!! 👿

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12 hours ago, dmedin said:

' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

Years ago I was listening to a prop trader who told the story that one day he asked a manager at the firm, 'you've seen some really good successful traders come through this firm, what was it they did that was different to the average trader'. The reply was 'they didn't do anything different, they just did everything better'.

That's your Holy Grail and it would seem it comes from within rather than without.

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Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates.

20 min.

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17 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates.

20 min.

image.thumb.png.5d20d63c8beff847d11d9ebbc9bb10b1.png

 

That's great, there's a lot of good content on IG buried away that often gets missed because it's hard to find.

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Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time? 

Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?

 

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    • yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon. Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch.  Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.
    • @Caseynotes, One must remember that on average it can take around 18 months from when the treasury yield curve flips or inverts to the start of a recession.  People talk about Dr. Copper but another commodity that it is worth keeping an eye on is Lumber. When housing construction begins to drop then that can be one of many indicators to have a look at. Others are inflation, interest rate direction, wage growth, unemployment, etc. There are many well documents indicators which signal a potential recession is around the corner.  From a trading perspective one should not worry as long as one is comfortable shorting. Those who are not may struggle to consistently make enough profits during a recessionary period. 
    • @Caseynotes, Yes that is right. I have seen some calling the recession for the past two to three years! They have been calling it as if it is around the corner. Then when it does not come they move the goal posts via obscure technical analysis. When one challenges it, one is deemed negative or a naysayer.  Corrections happen large and small. Investors sell investments to take profits. This has been happening since the markets began. Prices go up and down. Prices are bullish and bearish. Of course trading sentiment plays a big part but for me following the price action and letting the price action lead you to a trading decision is key. Trying to wait for the price action to follow your view and then changing the narrative by giving technical reasoning when it does not follow your view in my opinion will lead to missing out on trading opportunities.  For a sound trader, recessions, should not be feared but welcomed. If one understands how prices react during recessions then one can prepare their trading strategy for this outcome but for when it happens and not before.   
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