# TA - Technical Analysis

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7 hours ago, dmedin said:

Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time?

Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?

Many simply expect far too much from TA, certainly there is no simple yes/no indicator that will have a positive probability because if there was everyone would use it and the market would simply arbitrage it out. All indicators can only be based on historic data and we've all seen the warnings that past performance does not indicate the future. Nearly all indicators I've seen are stamped by the creator with the warning it should not be used in isolation and that would be right.

I would consider the natural wave or zig zag patterns of charts as a base, some like to count bars and try to see repeated patterns in the ratios, some like to name the waves look for the ratio of the large ones (it's 1/7, I saw that down the beach one day) but I wouldn't really bother with any of that.

If a combination of indicators is needed I would look to be matching the frequency's of a fast and a slow oscillator to apply to a trending chart as probably having the best chance with a view to achieving a slightly better win probability than 50/50 and a risk/reward ratio of n number of trades of around 1:2. That would be enough.

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Adding this video link to this thread. 'Why Volatility is the Key to Trading'. It's an hour long 'how to' use futures options trade positioning to indicate possible direction in spot markets using usd/jpy as an example.

It's a bit rushed to get it all in in one hour and gets a bit maths thick in places but don't worry as the skew calculations are available daily from many sources on the web, it just showing how it's done, but well worth sticking to as you end up with a chart with Bollinger Bands morphing into futures positioning high/low bands. So you have an indicator that's using real time data to plot direction not historical data. Interesting stuff.

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A CryptoCred video published yesterday from the Technical Analysis series on support/resistance trade setup and trigger. (35 min)

Clearly the leader of the free world agrees that volatility is a good thing.

Indeed, traders may say they hate to get political, but one noted the recent top and bottom were marked by Presidential tweets/and an about-face on China. Traders also noted late-afternoon tweeting on Wednesday. One trader said "Yesterday’s tweets didn’t stall the sell off and we closed on the lows. Maybe his manipulating via tweet isn’t going to have that positive effect going forward." In any event, traders remain focused on their charts, and seeing if recent lows/and key levels such as the 200-day moving averages can hold. If not, they see the breakdown accelerating.

- From Reuters news in the IG platform.

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Clearly the leader of the free world agrees that volatility is a good thing.

As I've shown in the Indices thread since early 2018 he waits for the strong economy to lift the US indices and then strikes at China from that position of strength knowing it will adversely affect the market, wait for it to build up again and repeat x 4 so far. He got worried by Bonds so delayed the next strike til December if then, but yes, he's playing it.

I've finally got some more time and hearing about standard deviations (Bollinger bands) now, reminds me of my uni days 15 years ago.

For a limited time only on-line trading course plus 259 page e-book 'How to beat Wall Street' free.

legit offer, I've checked these guys out before, just need to give email address, they will post other offers but you can unsubscribe anytime, once signed up you can take as long as you want to complete the course.

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5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

For a limited time only on-line trading course plus 259 page e-book 'How to beat Wall Street' free.

legit offer, I've checked these guys out before, just need to give email address, they will post other offers but you can unsubscribe anytime, once signed up you can take as long as you want to complete the course.

Great

Comprehensive Guide to Position Size and Leverage from CryptoCred covering stops, entries, position size, leverage and more with particular reference to crypto markets but applicable to all.

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I'm sure you've already posted this but it's pretty hard to beat for basic free content.

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Very good analysis from CryptoCred on current BTC published on Friday (25 min) but is also a lesson in multi-time frame analysis defining support resistance levels and how to think about trading them.

Don't bother with the five minute charts, and don't trade against the trend.

Elliot Wave

How to interpret Commitment of Traders report: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cot.asp

Quote

Futures prices tend to positively correlate with the positions of non-commercial traders. When non-commercial traders are long in a commodity, then that is usually a strong bullish signal. If non-commercial traders have a substantial number of short positions in a commodity, it can be inferred that this group of investors believes the price of the underlying asset is going to decrease. Over time, the non-commercial traders have been right as well as incredibly responsive to market signals when they are wrong.

New educational video from CryptoCred on Multi Time Frame analysis.

(120 min)

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Hey Guys,

DailyFX are having a webinar on 5 Continuation patterns and how to trade them. Watch it and let me know what you think.

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# Why Technical Trading Signals Stopped Working

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On 23/11/2019 at 23:01, dmedin said:

Why Technical Trading Signals Stopped Working

I liked this interview and there is definitely something to what he is saying, I know 4 or 5 traders who have given up on technical analysis and moved to quant analysis.

Also liked the end when wandered off topic to say his quant analysis had pick up an uptick in Japanese industry and signals of cyclical recovery.

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Free for today only Tradeciety ebook;

# Trading: Technical Analysis Masterclass: Master the financial markets Kindle Edition

by (Author), Moritz Czubatinski (Author)
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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Free for today only Tradeciety ebook;

# Trading: Technical Analysis Masterclass: Master the financial markets Kindle Edition

by (Author), Moritz Czubatinski (Author)

I had to change this to https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07NVDSW8Y

Edited by dmedin
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The 12 worst indicators to use on Forex. Was reminded of this video by recent discussions on the forum. Very interesting concepts and some explanations as to why many well known indicators just don't work.

Also added at the bottom is  the link to his Vid list, I remember the one on big banks was well worth a view as well.

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Haven't had a chance to see it yet but the RSI certainly does correspond well with what you see going on in the price movements, at least sometimes.  I like it precisely because it generates far fewer signals and is less noisy.  The MACD for me is visually hideous and unbearably noisy and unreliable, stochs are too complicated and all the rest is just 'pish'.  But if someone finds them useful then it's great.

Edited by dmedin

Posted (edited)

Useful and fairly extensive guide to trading breakouts, looks at different breakout set-ups and the do's and don'ts, includes several videos.

First published Dec 2018.

Edited by Caseynotes
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Interesting short video from Tradeciety looking at different win rate and risk/reward combinations and how to match them to your own personality and trading style.

"Trend retracement or reversal? – Can volume be a useful “clue”?"

Short article on volume analysis;

This is a useful little tip on timing pullback entries and shows how you can spot when a pullback is profit taking (by the bulls in this case) and not a serious attempt at a reversal by the bears. A case of waiting for the bears to obviously fail before looking to enter.

"It's not always as visually obvious as appears here, but this is a key principle underlying ALL my pullback entries."

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

t's not always as visually obvious as appears here

If only 😻

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