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Retail as a crash indicator


Mercury

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US consumer confidence indicator went down today days after BHS went into administration and now Austin Reed joins the party, also going into administration.  For anyone who experienced the last recession, not not the credit crunch blip but the last proper one in the late 80s/early 90s.  This is how it started...  Last bastions of the stock markets were the FMCG giants, just like now...

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Next reduces its sales guidance again, when was the last time that happened?  With PMI data also under pressure, some in contraction territory how long before people realise that the consumer is not going to come to the rescue of the economy?  And when they do...  

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The Fed will be done if they reverse policy so soon, they will look like they don't know what they are doing, which is true...  The poor old Fed is between a rock and a hard place.  Their policy isn't working because it can't, the market forces are too great for them to stem the tide of deflation and a debt clear out crash.  Of course it was their policies that set the whole thing up in the first place.  Now they need to let it happen but if they carry on increasing rates they will be blamed for causing the crash that is sure to come.  In the end they will be blamed anyway but still believe they can get out.  Oh dear poor Janet is to be the one left standing without a chair when the music stops...

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    • EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart, 22 February 24 Euro/U.S.Dollar(EURUSD) Day Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: blue wave 1 POSITION: Black wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES:blue wave 2   DETAILS: blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 1.06985 . Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play . WaveCancel invalid level: 1.06985 The "EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart" for 22 February 24, provides a comprehensive analysis of the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) currency pair, employing Elliott Wave principles to offer insights into potential market movements. This analysis is conducted on a daily chart, providing a broader perspective on the market. The primary identified "FUNCTION" is "Trend," indicating the focus on understanding and capitalizing on the overarching direction of the market. Recognizing the trend is vital for traders to align their strategies with the prevailing market sentiment. The specified "MODE" is "Impulsive," suggesting that the market is currently characterized by strong, directional price movements. Impulsive waves typically represent the core trend and offer substantial trading opportunities. The described "STRUCTURE" is "Blue wave 1," signifying the current phase within the Elliott Wave sequence. Wave 1 is often the initial stage of a new trend and is closely monitored by traders for potential opportunities to enter or exit positions. The designated "POSITION" is "Black wave 3," indicating the current placement within the broader Elliott Wave pattern. Wave 3 is typically the most forceful and extended wave in the sequence, signifying a robust trend in the direction established by the first two waves. In terms of "DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES," the analysis highlights "Blue wave 2," suggesting an anticipated corrective wave following the completion of the impulsive Blue wave 1. The "DETAILS" section specifies that "Blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 1.06985. Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play." This implies the conclusion of a corrective phase (wave Y of 2) and the initiation of the powerful impulsive wave 1 of 3. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is set at 1.06985. This level is critical for traders as it represents the point at which the current wave count would be invalidated. In summary, the EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis for the day chart on 22 February 24, indicates a strong impulsive trend with the market commencing Blue wave 1 of 3. Traders are advised to monitor the development of this wave and be mindful of the invalidation level at 1.06985. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!    
    • EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour  Chart, 22 February 24 Euro/U.S.Dollar(EURUSD) 4 Hour Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: blue wave 1 POSITION: Black wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES:blue wave 2   DETAILS: blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 1.06985 . Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.06985 The "EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart" dated 22 February 24, provides insights into the potential price movements of the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) currency pair based on Elliott Wave analysis. The analysis focuses on identifying trends and wave patterns to guide traders in making informed decisions. The identified "FUNCTION" in this analysis is "Trend," indicating that the primary objective is to understand and capitalize on the prevailing direction of the market. Recognizing the trend is crucial for traders to align their positions with the dominant market movement. The specified "MODE" is "Impulsive," suggesting that the market is currently characterized by strong and directional price movements. Impulsive waves typically represent the main trend and can offer lucrative trading opportunities. The described "STRUCTURE" is "Blue wave 1," which denotes the current phase within the Elliott Wave sequence. Wave 1 is usually the initial phase of a new trend and is closely monitored by traders for potential opportunities. The designated "POSITION" is "Black wave 3," indicating the current position within the broader Elliott Wave pattern. Wave 3 is often the strongest and most extended wave in the sequence, representing a powerful trend in the direction established by the first two waves. Concerning "DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES," the analysis points to "Blue wave 2," suggesting that a corrective wave is expected to follow the completion of the impulsive Blue wave 1. In the "DETAILS" section, it is mentioned that "Blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 1.06985. Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play." This implies that a corrective phase (wave Y of 2) has likely concluded, and the market is now in the early stages of the powerful impulsive wave 1 of 3. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is specified as 1.06985. This level is crucial for traders as it represents the point at which the current wave count would be invalidated. In summary, the EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-hour chart on 22 February 24, suggests a strong impulsive trend with the market in the early stages of Blue wave 1 of 3. Traders are advised to monitor the progression of this wave and be aware of the invalidation level at 1.06985. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!    
    • This is the pattern required by tradinglounge as a long trade set-up across the 150 (which we call the Medium Level)  
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