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USDJPY Big Data Wed and Thur


Caseynotes

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BOJ policy decisions and data releases likely to have ever increasing impact on the Japanese bond and Index market with knock on impact for the Yen.

BOJ stimulation bond buying package gives BOJ "outsized impact on bond market".

"BOJ is top 10 shareholder in about 90% of Nikkei 225 companies".

If the economy does't improve BOJ sees it's only option for the future is to do MOAR!

Is this where the other Western economies are headed?

 



 

 

 

 

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Thanks  I didn't know BoJ was such a big shareholder in the Nikkei, talk about propping up the markets is it almost China like...  When the music stops it will be carnage.  In Western markets I think traders will smell a rat more quickly than in Japan and increased stim may have a short term bounce affect but eventually people will start to realise that there is an underlying reason for all this stim that is not going away, namely no economic growth, and when they do... 

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My analysis suggests a surge against the Yen.  Can technical analysis predict what CBs are going to do?  Hardly but maybe it won't matter much what BoJ does this time if sentiment is against them even if they drop a nuclear bomb on the market wont that spook the **** out of everyone?  Perhaps that is where we are, or nearly?  It is this that will trigger the collapse of this CB induced Ponzi scheme...  Anyone buying shares now is just plain crazy (or has to because they are money managers after all, what else can they do...)

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FWIW here is my latest position on USDJPY.  I am sticking to my previous big picture assessment that the USD will strengthen vs the Yen.  We have seen the pullback after the daily tramline break (too steep for a kiss back this time).  There have been a couple of hourly tramline breaks and kiss backs and I think we may well get another soon.

 

My approach here is to go Long on any kiss, with a close stop, and to hold a stop in order above last nights high in case of a near miss on the tram and rally away.

 



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