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How are you trading the ‘trump trade war’?


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Seems like there is a lot of opportunity for making a few trades on the back of the rhetoric coming from the trump-house. Trade war talk is really kicking off and now the EU are getting on board. 

How are you trading it? 

Which markets are worth investigating? 

Whats your riskprofile on this? Do you think it’ll last or just be a flash pan statement? 

Chinese investment in the United States has plummeted 92% this year was trending on reddit today. 

Looking forward to some discussion about this :)

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Watchout BMW and Mercedes, Trumps tariffs on EU cars is coming and these stocks are going to take a big hit.

The EU can't win this and Trump is really only looking for a better deal not trade parity, a some point both the EU and China will have to make a deal and suddenly all these **** for tat escalations will be wiped away, the question is when. 

 http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/

trd1.thumb.PNG.748f6dd5ee4ed43b881ef40bde3b8871.PNG

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The whole ‘trump trade’ is quite an interesting one isn’t it. I guess the easiest (“easiest”) thing would be to look at which industries the tariffs target, which companies within those industries are most exposed (for example Harley Davidson as a US company, how much revenue is generated from overseas sales, as well as which companies have a high use of raw materials from China such as aluminium etc) and go from there.

The old ‘fang’ Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google and a large number of other tech stocks had a bit of a crappy few days so probably worth keeping an eye on that. It’s a bit odd really because these stocks are generally immune to tariff chat, especially when there hasn’t been any mention by the US, EU or China on levies or barriers to entry on these multinationals (many of which are softwares / transcend boarders). Maybe this is more a profit taking scenario on the individual stocks which haven’t been battered by the trade talks? I wouldn’t be going in big here. 

Also recently read this which was quite interesting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/25/the-first-layoffs-from-trumps-tariffs-are-here

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  • 3 weeks later...

German IFO expected to fall again tomorrow and tariffs on auto imports into the US from the EU on the horizon, drunker Junker off to the US looking to do a deal or maybe just to beg (Trump will wipe the floor with him).

What a double blow to the German auto industry (employing around a million people) that would be, US tariffs and a no deal Brexit. Germany won't let these 2 massive markets go, Merkel (I mean the EU) will have to make a deal.

ifo1.PNG.207cd5e21999a8da914264b7b627c331.PNG

 

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