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How are you trading the ‘trump trade war’?

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Seems like there is a lot of opportunity for making a few trades on the back of the rhetoric coming from the trump-house. Trade war talk is really kicking off and now the EU are getting on board. 

How are you trading it? 

Which markets are worth investigating? 

Whats your riskprofile on this? Do you think it’ll last or just be a flash pan statement? 

Chinese investment in the United States has plummeted 92% this year was trending on reddit today. 

Looking forward to some discussion about this :)

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@247trader, what do you think are a lot of opportunities for trades? 

I think before any discussion it would be nice if you could put your thoughts or opinions on this matter and that then may create a discussion.

I think a good starting point is where you think there are a lot of opportunities for making a few trades based on such rhetoric coming from the Trump. 

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Fundamentally what impact will this trade war have on the usd? and euro?

i using TA only and i see a potential double bottom in the eurusd (may-june) 

 

EURUSDDaily.png

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@Kodiak, the key question here is if you think the double bottom in the EUR / USD (May-June) has any relation to the Trump trade war? 

If you do then the next question would be why it has caused such price behaviour from a technical analysis perspective?

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Let me start with a fundamental perspective.

One could argue that a weaker dollar is part of Trump's economic plan. Suffering a large net foreign liability position which I think from is memory is around $8 trillion USD but please do not quote me on that means that the dollar could look exposed. This is especially true is the investment environment gets worse. The price action on JPY and CHF since March 2018 are interesting. 

There could be an inflationary impact of the tariffs which could push the dollar up. I accept this is on the assumption that the US Federal Reserve attempt to continue to control inflation! The US-China face off is reliant on Trump's $200 billion threat whilst the EU is attempting 2.8 billion in tariffs. 

So it seems that fundamental analysis may have led to the price action and behaviour which you see from a technical analysis perspective.

Now here is a question which I have views on but I will put it out there. If things play out like they could in a Trump trade war then where do you think the capital is going to move towards? Safe haven currencies? Safe haven assets? 

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Watchout BMW and Mercedes, Trumps tariffs on EU cars is coming and these stocks are going to take a big hit.

The EU can't win this and Trump is really only looking for a better deal not trade parity, a some point both the EU and China will have to make a deal and suddenly all these **** for tat escalations will be wiped away, the question is when. 

 http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/

trd1.thumb.PNG.748f6dd5ee4ed43b881ef40bde3b8871.PNG

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The whole ‘trump trade’ is quite an interesting one isn’t it. I guess the easiest (“easiest”) thing would be to look at which industries the tariffs target, which companies within those industries are most exposed (for example Harley Davidson as a US company, how much revenue is generated from overseas sales, as well as which companies have a high use of raw materials from China such as aluminium etc) and go from there.

The old ‘fang’ Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google and a large number of other tech stocks had a bit of a crappy few days so probably worth keeping an eye on that. It’s a bit odd really because these stocks are generally immune to tariff chat, especially when there hasn’t been any mention by the US, EU or China on levies or barriers to entry on these multinationals (many of which are softwares / transcend boarders). Maybe this is more a profit taking scenario on the individual stocks which haven’t been battered by the trade talks? I wouldn’t be going in big here. 

Also recently read this which was quite interesting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/25/the-first-layoffs-from-trumps-tariffs-are-here

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Trump tariffs kick off today. Get a quick overview in the EMEA brief.

 

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German IFO expected to fall again tomorrow and tariffs on auto imports into the US from the EU on the horizon, drunker Junker off to the US looking to do a deal or maybe just to beg (Trump will wipe the floor with him).

What a double blow to the German auto industry (employing around a million people) that would be, US tariffs and a no deal Brexit. Germany won't let these 2 massive markets go, Merkel (I mean the EU) will have to make a deal.

ifo1.PNG.207cd5e21999a8da914264b7b627c331.PNG

 

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Trump's trade war is interesting. I read an article which suggested the this could launch Bitcoin as the new Gold. Bitcoin shot up recently and to over $7000 and now over $8000 and it has not gone back down to $6000 levels. Here is a theory and it is only a theory as I have no evidence to support it.

Chinese Currency Devaluation. Traders buying Bitcoin for Chinese Yuan. The Chinese could be dumping the Chinese Yuan for Bitcoin. They could then convert the Bitcoin into US Dollars quite easily. 

I think Bitcoin could be the asset to go to in times of turmoil, political uncertainty, trade wars, etc. If the Chinese start buying Bitcoin as a result of Trump's trade war then it could have a significant impact on the price.  

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