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I am amazed people miss that!  I had heard about this but not seen it in action.

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I was amazed because I was expecting it (seen similar before) but so missed all else, even the score. Everything is much easier with 20/20 hindsight. 

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This is due to cognitive biases ,Imagine looking a charts , looking for the obvious  , but missing important  information

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That's right, it's often a case of seeing what we want to see rather than what is actually being played out, until it's to late. A bias should not mean discounting everything that doesn't fit, keep weighing the evidence and don't be too concerned if you need to change your bias, after all the market is going up and down all the time.

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I don't think it is about bias, that is a different actor on our minds.  No one looking at the video has a bias for not believing a guy in a gorilla suit exists or can exist in such a scene.  If everyone watched the video without trying to perform the task then everyone would spot the gorilla.  The issue this experiment is highlighting is that when we are focused on a stressful or difficult task (which is any kind of analysis) our brains automatically tune out extraneous factors.  When you are concentrating on driving in a high risk environment such as near a school you will often not hear what a person in the passenger seat says to you unless they shout a warning.  Our brains automatically tunes out things not relevant to the specific task at hand and as Kahneman said of this experiment, it shows "we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness."  One thing I would agree to is that if we had a bias for something being irrelevant we would not incorporate it into our analysis but that is a separate issue. 

 

So what?  How can this realisation help us?  For me I try to do the following to identify the obvious I have neglected to spot in my analysis:

  1. Follow a set routine or methodology, which has a built in scenario generator and requires me to look at things I have neglected in the past (via a check list of sorts)
  2. Return to my analysis the next day and the next day cold as a third party might do - this one is hard to do in reality
  3. Ask others for their input, two heads are better than one, and many heads smooth out errors
  4. Learn from mistakes and build into checklist but don't dwell on them or you become fixated

 

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