Jump to content

Inflation or Deflation?

Recommended Posts

I've read a lot of different commentators who have a view on whether we will sink into deflation (maybe depression) or that central bankers will have their way and drive massive inflation.  Despite the best attempts of the CBs, QE, ZIRP and now NIRP inflation remains stubbornly low.  Perhaps they should set aside their economic text books and take a look at the real world where people simply are not being paid enough to afford to buy things and have, belatedly, cut their plastic with household debt falling (government and corporate debt remains sky high though...).  House prices in London are more than a useful case study.  The social impact of the lack of affordable of housing is already coming to the fore in the rhetoric of the mayoral campaign and UK wide government policy is shifting away from the current home owner to the people who can't get on the ladder.


Next issues sales warning and Sainsbury's cites falling food prices as the main driver in continued deteriorating profits as price wars continue.  This is not just normal competition, people who would never have dreamed of shopping in Aldi or Lidl are doing so now because they simply do not want to pay.  Falling commodity prices (assuming that has not run its course, and I don't think so) are a big factor on the headline inflation numbers but the inflation we all experience is not here but in retail.  Has anyone else noticed retailers offering many more deals and discount incentives of late?  I have!  And that didn't really happen during the credit crunch, sure we had massive seasonal sales but not non sale time incentives.  Deflation is my bet and it is already happening.  Cue housing price crash and we have it nailed on...  For the financial markets this spells BEAR!

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 05/10/22 21:06
  • Posts

    • Market data to trade on Thursday: Aussie Trade; Levi earnings With the upside risk for forecasts for the Australian trade data, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the long trade on the Aussie benchmark, the S&P ASX 200. Earnings out on Thursday include Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss.      
    • Dear All, On the September 22 I could not sell Presto automation stock $PRST.  I have reported that to IG helpdesk, had multiple calls etc. It is not obvious where this process is going and I need my refund money ASAP. I have sent the screenshots etc.
    • Hi @Adnan_The_Barbarian Unfortunately we do not offer GDR's (Global Depository Receipt) for share dealing.   All the best - MongiIG 
  • Create New...