Jump to content

Quick trade ideas


rimmy2000

Recommended Posts

Recent move down filled an unfilled gap . Looks like a bit of consolidation / accumulation there. Two things on my mind :- 1) Sky takeover is now sorted & ITV has always been talked about as a bid target : 2) ITV is talked about bidding for another company which carries a bit of debt - if they were to go down that route, they would have to raise some cash to do it ( rights issue maybe )   - So two opposing situations to consider !!!

Capture itv.PNG

Link to comment
  • Replies 71
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Great fundamentals input from @elle.

From a technical viewpoint it's a nice technical set up @Pieman,

The level is previous support turned resistance plus price has historically respected the 20 MA, if today's close is a shooting star (reversal bar as it looks now) and price starts to reverse down tomorrow a tighter stop would be justified because the reversal pattern (the reason for taking the trade)  would be nullified if price were to go back and breach today's high. 

Link to comment
3 hours ago, rimmy2000 said:

eek! 

 

Exciting.. I hold ITV :D

 

Let's see where the story goes...

Well for me, today's low volume may be encouraging as just a pause in a long, but it's not convincing me for a reversal.  Combined with @elle's fantastic fundamentals contribution here, I'm not going in.

Link to comment
6 minutes ago, Pieman said:

Well for me, today's low volume may be encouraging as just a pause in a long, but it's not convincing me for a reversal.  Combined with @elle's fantastic fundamentals contribution here, I'm not going in.

Interesting - my IG spread bet platform has vol for this today as 1.45m.  ADVFN has 16.3m.  Anybody any idea why this may be?  What exactly the volume numbers represent?

Link to comment

The day close still leaves us with a potential reversal set up. The bulls today needed to attack the level and power through what is S/R and 20 MA and trendline but they couldn't, the bears successfully defended it. The last thing the bulls wanted was to leave the daily chart looking like this, everyone can see the chart and will be waiting for tomorrow to see what happens next, if price starts to head lower those on the sidelines will jump in. 

Volume figures are always different depending on source (or multiple sources) but the volume charts usually always maintain the same shape, the volume bar on the IG chart for today is way outside all others (as noted above) in context and so not reliable.

 

1747298777_ITVPLC_20180926_19_58.thumb.png.f6db0da81716a749aaa4e3f223166539.png 

Link to comment
On 31/08/2018 at 11:54, rimmy2000 said:

Wondering if we might get a quick trade here Ted Baker (TED)

31/08/2018

BUY TED £22.22 (trading below own historic avergaes and on par with wider market) TGT £33?

TED trading on f/c PE of 15.6, whereas historical average of PE 24.

Q2 results expected 8th October.

STOP under low £20.50, first TGT £26.50, if reached, move stop and target £33..?

Expecting this to resolve by end Dec, with direction known by Q2 results.

weekly, looking like bottomed-out. 200MA @ £26.65 (tgt1)

NOTE: I ALREADY HOLD TED as shown in chart

ted1.thumb.jpeg.035a22ce08db04a5e58470c9d83d3ea3.jpeg

daily, looks like momentum building. 

ted2.thumb.jpeg.8cd5eb46cf2c7c46b4a22f5e1555e9b0.jpeg

update: interims next week, Thu 4th Oct.

Last years comparators:

28 weeks     28 weeks 
                                                 ended        ended 
   Highlights                                12 August    13 August 
                                                  2017         2016   Change 
 Group Revenue                               GBP295.7m    GBP259.5m    14.0% 
 Profit Before Tax and Exceptional Items      GBP24.2m     GBP21.5m    12.7% 
 Profit Before Tax                            GBP25.3m     GBP21.5m    17.8% 
 Basic EPS                                       43.6p        37.1p    17.5% 
 Adjusted EPS                                    41.7p        37.1p    12.4% 
 Interim Dividend                                16.6p        14.8p    12.2%

these are the full year forecasts

Year 2019   2020   2021  
Turnover 636.9 +7.6% 699.4 +9.8% 761.4 +8.9%
EBITDA 106.9 +6.9% 119.0 +11.2% 130.5 +9.7%
EBIT 82.2 +7.1% 91.6 +11.4% 101.6 +10.9%
Pre-tax profit 80.0 +8.9% 89.3 +11.6% 99.4 +11.3%
Post-tax profit 62.5 +11.0% 69.4 +11.0% 78.2 +12.6%
EPS (p) 139.9 +10.8% 155.1 +10.9% 175.2 +13.0%
Dividend (p) 67.9 +13.0% 75.7 +11.5% 84.6 +11.8%
Link to comment
9 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

Don't know if you wanted this specifically for stock movements and trade ideas but Ether is also looking like it's gearing up for a move. MACD, RSI and vol isn't looking special but we're at a key area for support / resistance.

 

crypto's welcomed :D

cheers ?

Link to comment

Recap on ITV and the reversal failed but is an interesting study, if you were looking to take a potential reversal where exactly would you enter?

Looking at the 8am bar on the 15 minute chart and the gap down showed some traders clearly put sell orders in late yesterday, others would be waiting for the signal bar to be engulfed, and others would be watching higher time frame charts and waiting to enter during a sizable bear bar while still others would be waiting for a convincing bear bar close.

The point being that a range of traders will take a range of options, there is no one way, it is all relative. Those who got in early have the lowest probability but also the lowest risk (a very small stop), as you go down the range the probability increases but so does the risk (stop size).

So there is no one way, just a range of traders each managing their own risk/probability calculations in a way that suits their own trading style.

800657110_ITVPLC_20180927_20_14.thumb.png.0496a46b110aa2aa40c8cdb54f401dc7.png1619349055_ITVPLC_20180927_20_40.thumb.png.e8646ccaea8d191e302375edd7ebbaf4.png

Link to comment

After umming-and-ahhing a lot I did actually place that order.  Below previous day's low for me.  It must have so nearly fired.  I'm keeping an eye on whether it sticks to the 20 day MA, or powers on through with decent volume...  Not sure what the exact trigger would be for a trade in the latter event though!  Usually a case of "oh, there it was!". ?
Wait for a retracement if it gets going?  There's no order on it tonight anyway.

Link to comment
On 27/09/2018 at 09:25, rimmy2000 said:

check GAN. Possible quick trade ahead of tomorrow's results.

This annoyed me somewhat.

On the 26th co. announced "release its interim financial results for the first-half of the 2018 year ending June 30, 2018 on Friday September 28, 2018 at 07:00 a.m. UK time'

However, the results were not published via RNS until 08:14am!

Somewhat odd. I saw about 60k sells this morning which pulled the price down upto 10% at one stage. I note now only 3% down. A massive feign if you ask me. The results I will not go through in detail but read well.

'By way of outlook on 2019, the recent launch of Internet sports betting, the Company's current sales pipeline and existing contracted clients are projected to significantly enhance GANs revenue and EBITDA prospects.'

See. Sorry if the trade seemed ill timed. I expect had it been released to the market at 7am it would have been 10% in the other direction..

I hold and would have added this morning but had no funds. 

Link to comment

taken from the blog this morning which I thought was quite interesting (and links a little to the carbon emissions stuff @TrendFollower)  - Think about going long natural gas.

  • public sentiment on pollution changes in China many are speculating on a repeat of last years movements in the liquefied natural gas market going into the colder months.
  • Last year LNG imports were nearly 50% higher than the previous year.
  • The key uncertainties for the market will be weather conditions ...
  • ...and whether or not the Chinese government has managed to maintain and hold onto its inventories and reserves
  • strong demand in Europe continues to buoy the price.
  • You can blame that on an increase in carbon emission credit cost (boosting demand for cleaner fuels) and a colder start to the year.

 

Link to comment
Guest PandaFace
30 minutes ago, elle said:

BDEV   big divi next week - note the blue line, I would be interested in buying there  & holding for anticipated gains & divi

Capture bdev.PNG

Isn’t div 18p or near enough so better to bid further down?

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • image.png

  • Posts

    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Intermediate (1) DIRECTION: Acceleration in wave 3.   DETAILS: Looking for upside in wave 3 as we seem to have had a shallow wave {c} of 2, potentially indicating a strong upward momentum.       TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave {i} of 3. DIRECTION: Top in wave {i}. DETAILS: Looking for a pullback in wave {ii} as we top in wave {i} to then look for additional longs, looking for 172$ to provide support. We conducted a detailed Elliott Wave analysis for Texas Instruments Inc. (Ticker: TXN), examining both its daily and 4-hour chart movements. This analysis aims to provide valuable insights into potential future price movements for traders and investors interested in TXN stock.     * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* Texas Instruments Inc. is currently exhibiting a strong impulsive trend, characterized by a motive structure placed in Intermediate wave (1). The stock is anticipated to experience acceleration in wave 3 following a shallow wave {c} of 2. This suggests a robust upward momentum, signaling favorable conditions for bullish positions. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, TXN's impulsive trend is further evident, with the stock positioned in Wave {i} of 3. As the stock approaches the top in wave {i}, a pullback is expected in wave {ii}. This corrective phase presents an opportunity for traders to consider additional long positions, with the key support level identified around $172.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • The yen trades at 34-year lows versus the US dollar as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting. USD/JPY reached the June 1990 peak at ¥155.56 while EUR/JPY is fast approaching the October 2007 high at ¥167.74. Asian stocks were mixed and a lower open is expected for European stock markets following disappointing after-hours Q1 US earnings by the likes of Meta Platforms which dropped by 15%. In the US preliminary Q1 GDP, initial jobless claims and pending home sales are on the agenda while in Europe German Bundesbank President Nagel will speak at 4:15pm ahead of Friday's US PCE inflation data release.  
    • In the global geopolitical landscape, gold is often seen as a safe haven asset. However, recently, due to easing tensions in the Middle East, market overbuying, and the potential rise in long-term interest rates, gold prices have experienced their largest drop in nearly two years. Ryan Anderson, from the perspective of a financial analyst, discusses the impact of these factors on gold and the entire financial market, providing in-depth analysis and strategic advice for the current market environment. Ryan Anderson points out that the decline in gold prices reflects the reactions of investors to the easing geopolitical tensions and its impact on market sentiment. As concerns about potential conflicts between Israel and Iran diminish, market participants are adjusting their risk preferences, leading to a decline in gold prices from their highs. Additionally, other factors such as overbuying in market technical positions and the potential rise in long-term interest rates are prompting investors to reevaluate their decisions to hold gold. After a thorough analysis of the factors affecting the gold market, Ryan Anderson mentions that although gold prices have been hit hard in the short term, they remain a valuable asset driven by various factors in the long term. First, while geopolitical uncertainties have temporarily eased due to the Middle East situation, global instability factors persist, such as US-China trade relations and political turmoil in Europe. These factors could potentially increase the demand for gold as a safe haven at any time. Second, the trend of central banks buying gold may continue in the coming years, especially in Asian markets. Stable growth in gold demand from consumers in China and India, especially during festive and wedding seasons, will further support its price through physical purchases. Additionally, with investor concerns about long-term inflation, the role of gold as a hedge tool may be reassessed and emphasized. Ryan Anderson also points out that technical analysis shows that a pullback in gold prices after rapid gains is a common market adjustment behavior. This price adjustment provides potential investors with entry opportunities. Therefore, for those seeking medium to long-term investments, the current price level may be an attractive entry point. In conclusion, although the gold market has recently experienced significant declines, this volatility reflects more of a reaction to immediate news rather than a change in long-term value. According to the analysis of Mr. Anderson, gold remains attractive as a long-term hedge tool. Investors should allocate gold assets reasonably based on their risk preferences and investment objectives.
×
×
  • Create New...
us