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Recent move down filled an unfilled gap . Looks like a bit of consolidation / accumulation there. Two things on my mind :- 1) Sky takeover is now sorted & ITV has always been talked about as a bid target : 2) ITV is talked about bidding for another company which carries a bit of debt - if they were to go down that route, they would have to raise some cash to do it ( rights issue maybe )   - So two opposing situations to consider !!!

Capture itv.PNG

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Great fundamentals input from @elle.

From a technical viewpoint it's a nice technical set up @Pieman,

The level is previous support turned resistance plus price has historically respected the 20 MA, if today's close is a shooting star (reversal bar as it looks now) and price starts to reverse down tomorrow a tighter stop would be justified because the reversal pattern (the reason for taking the trade)  would be nullified if price were to go back and breach today's high. 

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3 hours ago, rimmy2000 said:



Exciting.. I hold ITV :D


Let's see where the story goes...

Well for me, today's low volume may be encouraging as just a pause in a long, but it's not convincing me for a reversal.  Combined with @elle's fantastic fundamentals contribution here, I'm not going in.

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6 minutes ago, Pieman said:

Well for me, today's low volume may be encouraging as just a pause in a long, but it's not convincing me for a reversal.  Combined with @elle's fantastic fundamentals contribution here, I'm not going in.

Interesting - my IG spread bet platform has vol for this today as 1.45m.  ADVFN has 16.3m.  Anybody any idea why this may be?  What exactly the volume numbers represent?

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The day close still leaves us with a potential reversal set up. The bulls today needed to attack the level and power through what is S/R and 20 MA and trendline but they couldn't, the bears successfully defended it. The last thing the bulls wanted was to leave the daily chart looking like this, everyone can see the chart and will be waiting for tomorrow to see what happens next, if price starts to head lower those on the sidelines will jump in. 

Volume figures are always different depending on source (or multiple sources) but the volume charts usually always maintain the same shape, the volume bar on the IG chart for today is way outside all others (as noted above) in context and so not reliable.



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On 31/08/2018 at 11:54, rimmy2000 said:

Wondering if we might get a quick trade here Ted Baker (TED)


BUY TED £22.22 (trading below own historic avergaes and on par with wider market) TGT £33?

TED trading on f/c PE of 15.6, whereas historical average of PE 24.

Q2 results expected 8th October.

STOP under low £20.50, first TGT £26.50, if reached, move stop and target £33..?

Expecting this to resolve by end Dec, with direction known by Q2 results.

weekly, looking like bottomed-out. 200MA @ £26.65 (tgt1)

NOTE: I ALREADY HOLD TED as shown in chart


daily, looks like momentum building. 


update: interims next week, Thu 4th Oct.

Last years comparators:

28 weeks     28 weeks 
                                                 ended        ended 
   Highlights                                12 August    13 August 
                                                  2017         2016   Change 
 Group Revenue                               GBP295.7m    GBP259.5m    14.0% 
 Profit Before Tax and Exceptional Items      GBP24.2m     GBP21.5m    12.7% 
 Profit Before Tax                            GBP25.3m     GBP21.5m    17.8% 
 Basic EPS                                       43.6p        37.1p    17.5% 
 Adjusted EPS                                    41.7p        37.1p    12.4% 
 Interim Dividend                                16.6p        14.8p    12.2%

these are the full year forecasts

Year 2019   2020   2021  
Turnover 636.9 +7.6% 699.4 +9.8% 761.4 +8.9%
EBITDA 106.9 +6.9% 119.0 +11.2% 130.5 +9.7%
EBIT 82.2 +7.1% 91.6 +11.4% 101.6 +10.9%
Pre-tax profit 80.0 +8.9% 89.3 +11.6% 99.4 +11.3%
Post-tax profit 62.5 +11.0% 69.4 +11.0% 78.2 +12.6%
EPS (p) 139.9 +10.8% 155.1 +10.9% 175.2 +13.0%
Dividend (p) 67.9 +13.0% 75.7 +11.5% 84.6 +11.8%
Edited by rimmy2000
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Recap on ITV and the reversal failed but is an interesting study, if you were looking to take a potential reversal where exactly would you enter?

Looking at the 8am bar on the 15 minute chart and the gap down showed some traders clearly put sell orders in late yesterday, others would be waiting for the signal bar to be engulfed, and others would be watching higher time frame charts and waiting to enter during a sizable bear bar while still others would be waiting for a convincing bear bar close.

The point being that a range of traders will take a range of options, there is no one way, it is all relative. Those who got in early have the lowest probability but also the lowest risk (a very small stop), as you go down the range the probability increases but so does the risk (stop size).

So there is no one way, just a range of traders each managing their own risk/probability calculations in a way that suits their own trading style.


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After umming-and-ahhing a lot I did actually place that order.  Below previous day's low for me.  It must have so nearly fired.  I'm keeping an eye on whether it sticks to the 20 day MA, or powers on through with decent volume...  Not sure what the exact trigger would be for a trade in the latter event though!  Usually a case of "oh, there it was!". ?
Wait for a retracement if it gets going?  There's no order on it tonight anyway.

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On 27/09/2018 at 09:25, rimmy2000 said:

check GAN. Possible quick trade ahead of tomorrow's results.

This annoyed me somewhat.

On the 26th co. announced "release its interim financial results for the first-half of the 2018 year ending June 30, 2018 on Friday September 28, 2018 at 07:00 a.m. UK time'

However, the results were not published via RNS until 08:14am!

Somewhat odd. I saw about 60k sells this morning which pulled the price down upto 10% at one stage. I note now only 3% down. A massive feign if you ask me. The results I will not go through in detail but read well.

'By way of outlook on 2019, the recent launch of Internet sports betting, the Company's current sales pipeline and existing contracted clients are projected to significantly enhance GANs revenue and EBITDA prospects.'

See. Sorry if the trade seemed ill timed. I expect had it been released to the market at 7am it would have been 10% in the other direction..

I hold and would have added this morning but had no funds. 

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taken from the blog this morning which I thought was quite interesting (and links a little to the carbon emissions stuff @TrendFollower)  - Think about going long natural gas.

  • public sentiment on pollution changes in China many are speculating on a repeat of last years movements in the liquefied natural gas market going into the colder months.
  • Last year LNG imports were nearly 50% higher than the previous year.
  • The key uncertainties for the market will be weather conditions ...
  • ...and whether or not the Chinese government has managed to maintain and hold onto its inventories and reserves
  • strong demand in Europe continues to buoy the price.
  • You can blame that on an increase in carbon emission credit cost (boosting demand for cleaner fuels) and a colder start to the year.


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