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April 2016 Non-farm Payrolls


LukeM

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Hi all

 

Welcome to April's Non-farm Payrolls thread, where we invite you to guess the release figures for NFP. 

 

If you guess closest, you can land yourself the coveted NFP Champion badge for the month!

 

Today’s numbers are expected to see US jobs increase by 200K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to drop back to 4.9%. Most industries continue to add workers at a decent rate, and a good number today could arguably put more pressure on the FOMC to move at its June meeting. Should we have a stronger number, plus (ideally) an improvement in the earnings figures released at the same time, then the strength in the greenback that we saw earlier in the week could get another boost.

 

So post your guesses below and good luck!

 

Luke

 

P.S. Thanks to  for his post this morning on the data to consider in the release, and how traders can perceive it.

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Well done  for guessing closest to 160k! Badge is coming your way.

 

For once the ADP payrolls number was a great indicator for the headline figure, with a drastic fall in the NFP number also accompanied by a downward revision to the March number. The key here is that todays numbers largely write off the chance of a June rate hike, with the market probability of a hike now standing at just 4%.

 

Recent dollar strength has seemingly been underpinned by the fact that a June hike is still within reach and thus today's figure will test out whether the dollar can continue to gain despite a minimal chance of a June rate rise.

 

Til next month!

 

Luke

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Anyone know what's going on in Germany?  It has caught a ridiculous bid, totally out of whack with the other indices...

 

USD does not appear to be weakening!  I wonder if this is all a fake out move, stock indices could simply be retracing before another leg down.  I do not think it is the USD rate rise issue that has been turning sentiment away from stocks of late, that is too simplistic in my view.  If it is something more, dare I say "fundamental" than rates then weak NFP should galvanise the bear in the market soon.  If not rebound all the way back up on the promise of no US rate rise or worse a reversal in policy?

 

As you say  patience is the key with this and it could take a few more hours just yet to sort through the volatility.  The pub will have to wait for a bit...

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With contradicting NFP data, lower NFP number but higher Average Hourly Earnings I'm not expecting any big moves in the USD crosses though maybe some Friday afternoon unwinding of weekly positions.

 

Not seeing any Germany news specials, the bund traders have seen the equities bid and are waiting for it to pass to take advantage of a small time frame inverted head and shoulders pattern on the bund charts.

 

 

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