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TRY rate decision - 1200 BST

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Morning all,

Crunch time in Ankara at 1200 BST today. Reuters polls are suggesting an increase of 425 basis points to 22%.  Turkish banks, among them Garanti & IS bank, seem to be calling this much higher with predictions of 500bp / 22.75%.

Most US & EU banks are hiding their cards. Privately a few of our liquidity providers are suggesting 500bp over the next two Central Bank meetings and a 300bp rise today; of course these are 3rd party predictions so usual caveats apply.

We intend to widen guaranteed stop distances in the run up to this (and other pairs for MPC/ ECB), either way expect some volatility across all TRY pairs.  

 

TRY.PNG

Edited by Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG
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**** Christ banging out a 5% IR rise in a single decision. How on earth does this work for the wider economy... just imagine an actually useful currency (lol) having that sort of movement. The market shits with an unexpected 25bip movement.

whos got a helmet? Only play I see here is getting in after the initial spike and wait for liquidity to come back before doing the reverse trend for a few moments and then getting out fast! 

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TRY falls 3% on 'lower rates' comment.

He already knows how much the rate rise will be so now signalling the pretence of CB independence.

Pastor Brunson court hearing still a month away.

This is going to be a rollercoaster ride with lashings of slippage.

try1.PNG.39d60f062be24ed5fca00b44d103571e.PNG 

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Ha, no half measures then. USDTRY bounces off 60000 and already heading back up.

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Now that Erdogan has made himself head of the country's sovereign wealth fund perhaps he could appoint himself head of the central bank too.

See he has restarted his 'hold TRY not $' campaign, if only he had some kind of apparatus to make people do as he says.

 

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