Jump to content

US Dollar index - Fed rate decision


phillo

Recommended Posts

Are we about to get a confirmed breakout of the 1 hour chart channel?  I have a turn just inside my Daily chart resistance zone for a wave 1 termination (see previous post above).  I have NMD and a strong EWT wave count set up and now the beginnings of a channel breakout downward.  Coincides with reverse set up on GBP and EUR (naturally) but also AUD, which is not part of the basket.  Gold/Silver are at potential turning point as well, providing correlations.

Trading strategy (on EURUSD and GBPUD and SIlver):

  1. Trade Long on breakout of the respective channels/triangles with stops below recent lows and/or key support turning zones, whichever is lower).
  2. Move stops to next low (but remaining below the channel breakout zones (and lines) until the rally is away (i.e. after a suitable 1-2 retrace and rally) then move stops to break even.
  3. Consider adding Longs on the 1-2 retrace and rally to pyramid the move but not too much as it is counter trend
  4. Warning: this is a counter trend rally (except for Silver!) so caution is advised as fast reversal is a risk (hence the focus on stop approach)

One to watch.

DX-1-hour_131118.thumb.png.c8b949fce6d62dda9b4d1836bc4a0e06.png

Link to comment

I'm seeing USD range bound ST and expecting a short term rally before a medium term bearish move, with a break through support.  I see similar on EURUSD and Silver/Gold.  Stocks have been a bit depressed this morning, ironic really that the Europeans were so bullish the past few days and just when the US large caps join they do an about turn...  Could we get stocks weakness and corresponding USD strength and then an opposite turn on both?  Not this could also happen with USD just breaking through support, doesn't have to do another run up... 

DX-1-hour_161118.thumb.png.3ec2f5941cb3d9daf727a8e67c1e1dc2.png

 

Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

DX has arrived at a key moment having moved all the way to the Fib 88%.  I have noticed of late that retrace moves are hitting this level and even double bottoms/tops more frequently these days.  Such volatility is indicative of major trend changes to me as Bulls and Bears slug it out but which group will be dominant this time..?

For USD pairs a turn here is highly indicative of a significant retrace to come prior to USD resuming its major trend rally.  All markets go in waves, whether or not you subscribe to Elliot Wave Theory this up/down motion is easy to prove, just look at a price chart.  So I am expecting USD to retrace prior to a major rally phase.  Could be now, could be it needs another leg up before this happens.  Could align to a Santa Claus rally on stocks.  Could align to dovish showing from the Fed on interest rates, could align to US NFP expectations or actual data that would suggest the Fed needs to go dovish.  Who knows.  I don't really care at this point, I just look at the price action and if I see it turning at an important support/resistance zone I go with that.  Let's see what happens next...

From a technical perspective on the chart below:

  • Big picture charts (previously posted on this thread) support a long term rally but we need a Wave 1-2 retrace first
  • Turning at the Fib 88% as per assessment above
  • NMD plus same on RSI and Stochastic
  • EWT A-B-C form with 1-5 completing on the Wave C

Trading strategy:

  1. Look for ending channel breakouts on key USD pairs to get long/short (opposite USD)
  2. Look for supporting support/resistance zone turns and supporting momentum divergence
  3. EURUSD and GBPUSD are showing a couple of good set ups.

DX-1-hour_281118.thumb.png.161466ab110fa50b1c5d421dcb461105.png

Link to comment

After a little retrace action USD bearish phase has finally go going, and all related pairs accordingly.  I am expecting this to last for a while but it is (in my view) a counter trend rally so I expect the USD Bull to kick in when the markets realise that the game is up for stocks.  Figure we have while yet before that happens though...

DX-Daily_041218.thumb.png.70bc4baaf0ed4c46a9822070f414ba0e.pngDX-1-hour_041218.thumb.png.4236228d3c74acc7d3c25cd54d9109da.png

Link to comment

USD rallied hard, I guess off the back of stocks weakness but now turning back down, which could be a reassertion of declining T-bond yields drag (down to 2.91 from 3.24 high at the beginning of November (10 year bond yield = real interest rates, like mortgage rates etc).  Whatever the reasons DX and associated pairs have all closed recent gaps and look to be turning again into a period of USD bearishness.  This could be a catalyst for Gold/Silver also.

DX-1-hour_051218.thumb.png.035d299d858fc4fd9af3158ca4103597.png

Link to comment

Having spend the past few months waiting for a USD Bearish retrace it looks like we may be near significant overhead resistance on DX.  There is still a bit to go, which looks to EUR and Yen as key drivers with some support from CAD and recently CHF (as Gold goes into a Bearish move perhaps...).  I see further advances for USDJPY and EURUSD should retest the Fib 76/78% area of its 1hour chart (the breakout of the Daily chart Triangle zone.  GBPUSD however could easily rally from here as an outlier.

Regardless of the whys and wherefores DX seems to have another leg up in it before any significant bearish retrace.  If Treasury Yields continue to fall off and if the Fed gets dovish again in the face of stalling economic data and struggling stocks then USD could easily reverse, at least until the market realises the game is up for the global economy and USD becomes a safe haven.

DX-Daily_121218.thumb.png.b75a73575c132fba1228039f7da415d6.png

 

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Bitcoin halving is set for this week. Bitcoin Halving Event The cryptocurrency was hit hard over the weekend after Iran carried out a series of strikes against Israeli territory. The attack, in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the month, saw in excess of 350 drones and missiles launched by Iran. According to the Israel Defence Force (IDF), ‘99%’ of these ‘threats’ were successfully intercepted. With the cryptocurrency sector being the only market open over the weekend, traders used the sector’s liquidity to hedge risk. Bitcoin hit a low of $60.6k as news of the impending strike filtered through, while Ethereum hit a multi-week low of $2,845. In the altcoin space, losses of 25% or more were seen, sparking multiple liquidation stories. Prices across the board are pushing higher today, but the weekend’s losses will take some time to fully recover. The weekend sell-off saw Bitcoin fall below both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages for the first time since late January. Both of these will need to be recovered convincingly, along with a prior resistance-turned-support level at $69k, before Bitcoin can make a fresh attempt at the mid-March $73.78k all-time high. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART – APRIL 15TH, 2024     Ethereum is over 3% higher today after making a multi-month low of $2,845 on Saturday. Ethereum must reclaim both the 20- and 50-day moving averages before $ 3,582 comes back into play. Above here, the April 8th/9th double high at $3,728 comes into focus. ETHEREUM DAILY PRICE CHART – APRIL 15TH, 2024   All charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin and Ethereum – bullish or bearish?       Apr 15, 2024 1:30 PM +02:00 Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist DailyFX
    • Ethereum (ETH) Price Update: Despite a 3.76% dip in the last 24 hours, Ethereum remains a dominant force in the crypto space at $3,026.41. Its robust infrastructure and role in DeFi continue to solidify its position   Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Update: With a 3.11% loss in the last 24 hours, Dogecoin sits at $0.1531. Despite market downturns, DOGE's strong community and meme-driven virality keep it relevant in the crypto landscape.   Litecoin (LTC) Price Update: Litecoin saw a 2.73% dip, now priced at $76.38. Known as the "silver to Bitcoin's gold," LTC's reputation for fast transactions continues to bolster its standing in the market.   Ripple (XRP) Price Update: Despite a 3.24% loss, Ripple stands at $0.4826. Despite regulatory challenges, Ripple remains focused on revolutionizing cross-border payments with blockchain technology.   Solana (SOL) Price Update: Solana experienced a notable 10.63% dip, now priced at $132.79. Despite this setback, Solana's high throughput and innovative approach to dApps position it as a promising contender for future growth.
    • Silver Elliott Wave Analysis  Function -Trend Mode - Trend Structure - Impulse for (A) Position - Wave 3 of (A) Direction - Wave 4 of (A)  Details - Currently in wave 4 dip before further rallies for wave 5 of (A) higher. We should see one more leg lower for wave 4. The current bullish resurgence on Silver started in January 2024 after a sideways move in over a year prior. By projection, it doesn’t look like this bullish run is ending soon. Buyers will continue to wait for dips to buy. With Elliott wave theory, we can identify the identity of the dips and when a bigger pullback is on the way. The current dip that started on 12 April 2024 is expected to take a leg lower before the bullish trend resumes. In today’s commodity blog post, we will look at the position of the current price in the larger framework and what target traders should expect for the current bullish trend.    On the daily time frame, we could identify that the current rally is part of a bigger bullish correction that started on March 20, 2022 at 11.645. Since then, a double zigzag pattern has been emerging upwards, labelled waves (w)-(x)-(y) of the supercycle degree. Wave (w) ended at 30.08 on 3rd February 2021 and wave (x) concluded at 17.56 on 31 August 2022. By projection, wave (y) could reach 44.995 if we get a 100% relationship between (w) and (y) which often happens with zigzag structured. From the 2022 low of 17.56, wave (y) is emerging and itself now sub-divides into blue waves ‘W’-’X’-’Y’ - a double zigzag pattern. Blue wave ‘W’ ended on 3rd February 2023 at 24.65 before price entered in to a triangle sideways structure for blue wave ‘X’ that lasted for over a year.  Currently, we are in wave (y) of the supercycle degree that can sub-divide into at least three waves. Current rally is the first leg or first leg of the first sub-wave of (x). If we go with the latter, then we are in wave (A) of w of (x) but if we go with the former, we are in wave a of (w). All these may sound confusing to a beginner in the subject of Elliott wave theory. We can just focus on wave (A) ahich is expected to be an impulse from 21.929. The H4 time frame shows its sub-waves more clearly. On the H4 time frame, we are currently in wave 4 pullback of wave (A). 1st and 2nd legs of wave 4 seem to have completed. We will expect another leg lower into the 26.86-26.07 Fibonacci extension zone where wave 4 might find a support for further rallies in wave 5 of (A). Therefore, we can conclude that current dip has not violated the bullish development in anyway. It’s just an opportunity for new and existing buyers to get in long positions from the dip.   Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!    
×
×
  • Create New...
us