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Gold & Silver in a LT rally

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For me precious metals have clearly now turned into that long term rally I have been banging on about since I started this thread.  For the record, I am Long from an early turning point and am now seeking to add further to those longs until the first major (Long term timeline) retrace Bear.  I currently see an interim retrace in the making, which would be a halfway Flag.  This is something I always look out for in all major motive waves.  On my Daily Gold chart I have a pair of parallel channel lines and the market has just hit and rebounded down off the upper one.  On my 4 hourly chart I have NMD and a potential ending Triangle formation, which if broken to the down side may offer a nice short term Gold Short.  More importantly I will be looking for a bottoming out of any retrace to go Long and also I will be waiting to see if a Flag or Pennant forms, the breakout rally of which would also be a good Long opportunity from a purely chartist perspective.

Longer term I am still expecting this rally to make the 1360ish area at the neckline and then we will see whether that stops this particular wave (in temporary retrace) or it blasts through.  But that's for later.  Right mow my strategy is simple, buy the dips BUT need to be careful here as a Flag move could reach the bottom channel line (i.e. a deep dip this time).  Also Flags can contain a lot of whiplash so watch out for that. Similar on Silver.

XAUUSD-Daily_311218.thumb.png.fd2a84f1e313ed30e99c033792f1e31c.pngXAUUSD-4-hours_311218.thumb.png.51f1ab0ac77fdbfacb6909c84029068a.png

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@Mercury,

Yes thanks for that. I too am looking to 'Buy the Dips' but want to try and buy when new 'Higher Lows' are formed on both Gold and Silver. I have not added to these positions yet but that is my strategy on these particular Gold and Silver trades.

I agree with your post. It will be interesting to see if when we both add to our positions using slightly different techniques and strategies what the outcomes are as they may be more similar than we think. It will be interesting to see. 

The key will be not to be stopped out unnecessarily due to the volatility and corrections based on profit taking and selling (closing long positions). I think for the trend to get even larger and stronger new participants on a larger scale such as institutional money opening new longs or adding substantially to existing positions will certainly assist. Also when 'Trend Followers', 'Speculators' and 'Hedge Funds' start becoming more aggressive and begin adding to their positions we could see a serious 'amplification' of the Gold and Silver trends with a strong upward movement.

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Gold and Silver have reached the top line of an up-sloping channel and have bounced back off it.  Gold has broken out of a 4 hour chart Triangle and retested just as the market closed for the down time.  However in the last hour during the Gold down time the FX market has really kicked off with the Yen making a large positive move against the USD and elsewhere USD rallying hard.  Will be interesting to see if this spike in USD translates into a bearish move for precious metals.

XAUUSD-Daily_020118.thumb.png.25976c6f0c0571b3efa96e3a98f8c244.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_020119.thumb.png.e0ea6ddc5f6c983e1e46028fe0de8501.png

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@Mercury,

If anything it seems during the 'Flash Crash' Silver certainly went up and Gold held its own overnight whilst the Asian markets were running. Obviously there may be some moving of capital today as a reaction so will have to see. 

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Looks like Silver and Gold (the latter more so) have finally hit the buffers and dropped down but how far will it go?  Gold is showing a credible break through a rising, narrowing, channel and close below (see hourly chart below).  Silver too but less convincingly just now.  Gold has turned back from a zone of significant resistance of the Daily chart (see below).  However my leading scenario is for Gold to go through a period of consolidation or a relatively shallow retrace aligned to stocks retrace rally, which would include fresh higher highs and then a much stronger retrace to set up the big rally coincidental with the big stocks Bear.

In the short term I am looking for a retrace to the Fib 38%, coincident with the unclosed price gap around the 1255 area BUT it is equally possible that this gap will not be closed until the wave 2 blue retrace a few months from now.  So the opportunity is to identify the next turn up and buy the dips for a short term Long trade and swing Short for the bigger retrace and then get long for the big one (or just wait for the big one...)

 

XAUUSD-1-hour_050119.thumb.png.85ace04ba82a1add8644b17faa58ebac.pngXAUUSD-Daily_050119.thumb.png.151483b8a6ff5842a369f04f57a37a5b.png

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Nothing much going on with Gold/Silver, the anticipated consolidation period continues.  The competing drivers of USD and Stocks/Bonds movements may be neutralising clear direction for now but in anycase, regardless of the cause, the price action is flat.  I see 2 possible routes out, both ending in an upward trajectory:

  1. a simple breakout rally that takes us up towards the big picture H&S neckline
  2. a retrace to close the price gap before that same rally

My longer term projects remains unchanged, once we complete a strong wave 1 we should see a retrace wave 2 to set up a big rally, which ought to coincide with the Stocks Bear resumption.  In this I am supposing that the main driver for gold becomes firmly a safe haven value store rather than a USD currency cross.

XAUUSD-Daily_160119.thumb.png.08c71c14134b5b5f0881a2db8cc29ff9.png

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