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Gold & Silver in a LT rally

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Well we all know what happened to Gollum as a result of his obsession...

Gold could be making a double top turn just now, far from conclusive but there is a scenario which fits this and on the 1H chart there is NMD and a decent turn.  It was worth a speculative Short with very close stop in any case.  Meanwhile the buy the dips boys are still locked into their programming, just look at Tesla...  And USDJPY traders seem in a hurry to close the price gap and test the LT resistance trend line.  While Gold has been bullish, Silver has been much more reluctant.  I remain reluctant to buy into this Gold bug crazy until Silver also breaks out, in fact if that happens then Silver is the trade to take rather than gold IMO.  Would a Gold/Silver bear phase require a Stocks bullish breakout?  Probably but not necessarily.  Would a Gold breakout here require a stocks bear move.  No but surely in absence of any major disaster scenarios a big breakout/turn in Stocks/USD would be required?

 

XAUUSD-Daily_190220.thumb.png.52b1aa196bce1eb593419f0bd4fc7a9a.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_190220.thumb.png.48e5e090410cc82346b2a89176b20278.png

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I have a 1585 call option on this MOFO, in case you're wondering

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Blast off to the moon, my bonnie wee loon 🐮👾

2016010785_SpotGold_20200221_10_26.thumb.png.3503f15ff8c186ed9eeef2047835132b.png

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If we do see a relief rally, or especially yet another buy the dips rally to an new ATH on US large caps then Gold and Silver may fall heavily.  Already there is a case for a technical top out and turn, especially on Silver, which remains within a consolidation Triangle.  Gold looks like it may be turning after a relief rally to Fib 50% and key horizontal resistance.  Could be an interesting afternoon...

XAUUSD-1-hour_270220.thumb.png.dac9e2c579f0f6400f039a7a954ceb6e.png

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Gold approaching a key ST support zone after a clean reversal off the Fib 50% zone.

 

As for Silver?

BEarimages.jpg.60dbd13a6737ba21607dd0083f2fecd1.jpg

XAUUSD-1-hour_280220.thumb.png.d86030df582ee36b1ba07819d7af318e.pngXAGUSD-Daily_280220.thumb.png.bf7167f010b61cf19e6fe09b29e3a9f2.png

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Gold approaching a key ST support zone after a clean reversal off the Fib 50% zone.

 

As for Silver?

BEarimages.jpg.60dbd13a6737ba21607dd0083f2fecd1.jpg

XAUUSD-1-hour_280220.thumb.png.d86030df582ee36b1ba07819d7af318e.pngXAGUSD-Daily_280220.thumb.png.bf7167f010b61cf19e6fe09b29e3a9f2.png

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Just now, dmedin said:

GOLD WILL RECOVER.  Buy gold calls!

On what basis?  What is your system to decide that?

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13 minutes ago, Mercury said:

On what basis?  What is your system to decide that?

 

It's a temporary set back, investors are selling gold to keep themselves afloat.

It's still well above its 50 day SMA

They'll be back :)

1169241861_SpotGold_20200228_14_59.thumb.png.a27a21ce12a0f88d0342b79464466137.png

 

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

By summer.

As so you are not saying don't sell Gold so much as wait until it bottoms and buy again?  I would echo that but I would say sell now and buy when it bottoms out, which will be much much lower than people currently anticipate.  Just look at Silver go...

 

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Silver is still in the doldrums.

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Gold continues to run but if the coronavirus end of the world narrative wanes and it all proved to be a media driven collective madness and stocks rally then Gold may yet produce that strong bearish move I have been expecting.   Silver remains stuck in a LT consolidation and I can't see Gold getting to the extremes being talked up until Silver runs much hotter and stocks crater.  There are too many gold bug bulls for the rally to be sustainable without a major crisis, which we do not yet have.

Therefore the higher high on Friday (or maybe a little bit more early next week) could be signalling the end for now.  The fast bearish candle towards the end of the days trading on Friday may be an indication of some profit taking to come.

From a technical perspective I see the following:

  • A 1-5 up to the current highs and another 1-5 on the final rally phase.
  • NMD on all chart time frames (weekly; daily; 1H) and over bought oscillators
  • Non commercials net Max COT bullish
  • Spinning top candle on daily and strong end of trading bearish candle on the 1H on Friday

XAUUSD-Weekly_070320.thumb.png.8de2965b8644d4abfa884f8c5ccd442b.pngXAUUSD-Daily_070320.thumb.png.582ce1a63e0a2e341622332073066f7f.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_070320png.thumb.png.10baa53d987847a724aea6b127ea8b54.png

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Gold will be above 2000 this year.

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On 23/10/2018 at 09:30, trade247 said:

have you ever bought actual gold? as in going into a store and purchasing that way? I have no idea about it and never looked into it, but there must be an argument for it? I wonder if the commissions are huge?

Dont forget, shop price inc profit for retailer aslso amazes me people think gold is safe ,dont forget they oassed a law to turn in gold or face prison and in the day enormous fines, gold is for trading large sums its no use for groceries if currency low

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, bluebird4211 said:

Dont forget, shop price inc profit for retailer aslso amazes me people think gold is safe ,dont forget they oassed a law to turn in gold or face prison and in the day enormous fines, gold is for trading large sums its no use for groceries if currency low

I personally don't think for one minute that gold is safe or practical, but I recognize that other people do - I'm not trying to be cleverer than them, I'm trying to follow them (and get out before the stampede turns on itself) :D

Edited by dmedin
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This coro going to go for months,Oil rising today, ships not sailing ,planes not flying, streets quiet, big loss of trade due in general, enough oil sloshing around to make a knew ocean, fattening the goose again,im pretty sure you know what im suspecting comes next.

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Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis tells IGTV’s Victoria Scholar that the opportunity for gold looks more attractive for international investors using currencies other than the US dollar such as the Brazilian real or the Turkish lira. Meanwhile he says that it does not make sense for investors to buy gold and sell silver or vice versa and that the two precious metals should be invested in side by side with the same directional view.

 

Apple: https://apple.co/2Xh2oGe

Google: https://bit.ly/3cK01Cp

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2TriE6p

 

Let me know what you agree/ disagree with. 

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2 hours ago, CharlotteIG said:

it does not make sense for investors to buy gold and sell silver or vice versa and that the two precious metals should be invested in side by side with the same directional view

That sounds sensible.

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Silver's selling off pretty hard now.

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    • with the previous hour's candle completed, Monday's low became a third-order Grimes pivot point - taking this as a signal would have resulted in closing the short 400 points below entry: I find this interesting.  of course this a sample of one so absolutely not representative.  and there are probably easier ways to come to the same conclusion - e.g. selling after a pronounced up-move once two lower highs emerge, or breakthrough the approximate neckline of a h&s pattern, and buying once a low held a very close test and a re-test would have lead to the same here...  also kinda would require 24/5 monitoring... will try to work on a plan addressing these issues   
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