Jump to content

Gold & Silver in a LT rally

Recommended Posts

For me precious metals have clearly now turned into that long term rally I have been banging on about since I started this thread.  For the record, I am Long from an early turning point and am now seeking to add further to those longs until the first major (Long term timeline) retrace Bear.  I currently see an interim retrace in the making, which would be a halfway Flag.  This is something I always look out for in all major motive waves.  On my Daily Gold chart I have a pair of parallel channel lines and the market has just hit and rebounded down off the upper one.  On my 4 hourly chart I have NMD and a potential ending Triangle formation, which if broken to the down side may offer a nice short term Gold Short.  More importantly I will be looking for a bottoming out of any retrace to go Long and also I will be waiting to see if a Flag or Pennant forms, the breakout rally of which would also be a good Long opportunity from a purely chartist perspective.

Longer term I am still expecting this rally to make the 1360ish area at the neckline and then we will see whether that stops this particular wave (in temporary retrace) or it blasts through.  But that's for later.  Right mow my strategy is simple, buy the dips BUT need to be careful here as a Flag move could reach the bottom channel line (i.e. a deep dip this time).  Also Flags can contain a lot of whiplash so watch out for that. Similar on Silver.

XAUUSD-Daily_311218.thumb.png.fd2a84f1e313ed30e99c033792f1e31c.pngXAUUSD-4-hours_311218.thumb.png.51f1ab0ac77fdbfacb6909c84029068a.png

Share this post


Link to post

@Mercury,

Yes thanks for that. I too am looking to 'Buy the Dips' but want to try and buy when new 'Higher Lows' are formed on both Gold and Silver. I have not added to these positions yet but that is my strategy on these particular Gold and Silver trades.

I agree with your post. It will be interesting to see if when we both add to our positions using slightly different techniques and strategies what the outcomes are as they may be more similar than we think. It will be interesting to see. 

The key will be not to be stopped out unnecessarily due to the volatility and corrections based on profit taking and selling (closing long positions). I think for the trend to get even larger and stronger new participants on a larger scale such as institutional money opening new longs or adding substantially to existing positions will certainly assist. Also when 'Trend Followers', 'Speculators' and 'Hedge Funds' start becoming more aggressive and begin adding to their positions we could see a serious 'amplification' of the Gold and Silver trends with a strong upward movement.

Share this post


Link to post

Gold and Silver have reached the top line of an up-sloping channel and have bounced back off it.  Gold has broken out of a 4 hour chart Triangle and retested just as the market closed for the down time.  However in the last hour during the Gold down time the FX market has really kicked off with the Yen making a large positive move against the USD and elsewhere USD rallying hard.  Will be interesting to see if this spike in USD translates into a bearish move for precious metals.

XAUUSD-Daily_020118.thumb.png.25976c6f0c0571b3efa96e3a98f8c244.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_020119.thumb.png.e0ea6ddc5f6c983e1e46028fe0de8501.png

Share this post


Link to post

@Mercury,

If anything it seems during the 'Flash Crash' Silver certainly went up and Gold held its own overnight whilst the Asian markets were running. Obviously there may be some moving of capital today as a reaction so will have to see. 

Share this post


Link to post

Looks like Silver and Gold (the latter more so) have finally hit the buffers and dropped down but how far will it go?  Gold is showing a credible break through a rising, narrowing, channel and close below (see hourly chart below).  Silver too but less convincingly just now.  Gold has turned back from a zone of significant resistance of the Daily chart (see below).  However my leading scenario is for Gold to go through a period of consolidation or a relatively shallow retrace aligned to stocks retrace rally, which would include fresh higher highs and then a much stronger retrace to set up the big rally coincidental with the big stocks Bear.

In the short term I am looking for a retrace to the Fib 38%, coincident with the unclosed price gap around the 1255 area BUT it is equally possible that this gap will not be closed until the wave 2 blue retrace a few months from now.  So the opportunity is to identify the next turn up and buy the dips for a short term Long trade and swing Short for the bigger retrace and then get long for the big one (or just wait for the big one...)

 

XAUUSD-1-hour_050119.thumb.png.85ace04ba82a1add8644b17faa58ebac.pngXAUUSD-Daily_050119.thumb.png.151483b8a6ff5842a369f04f57a37a5b.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

Nothing much going on with Gold/Silver, the anticipated consolidation period continues.  The competing drivers of USD and Stocks/Bonds movements may be neutralising clear direction for now but in anycase, regardless of the cause, the price action is flat.  I see 2 possible routes out, both ending in an upward trajectory:

  1. a simple breakout rally that takes us up towards the big picture H&S neckline
  2. a retrace to close the price gap before that same rally

My longer term projects remains unchanged, once we complete a strong wave 1 we should see a retrace wave 2 to set up a big rally, which ought to coincide with the Stocks Bear resumption.  In this I am supposing that the main driver for gold becomes firmly a safe haven value store rather than a USD currency cross.

XAUUSD-Daily_160119.thumb.png.08c71c14134b5b5f0881a2db8cc29ff9.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

It rather seems that USD price action is driving precious metals at present with USD weakness supporting rallying Gold/Silver.  Looking at the technicals on both it is simply an end to my anticipated consolidation part way through the medium term rally, which presents as a Flag or Pennant.  In both Gold and Silver we have seen a breakout of this consolidation and in the latter a break through over head resistance.  I expect both these markets to continue to rally for a while to complete the medium term wave 1 before a more significant wave 2 bearish retrace that will set up a very long Bullish trend.

My trading strategy is to go Long on the breakouts, mentioned above, watch XAUUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.c9cef41d4e25056f836c87432ede2b9c.pngXAGUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.d1c43d292fc60da667c78e16aecbe523.pngout for any short term bearish retraces as an opportunity to buy the dip until I see signals of the wave 1 end and then exit all swing Longs (keeping only those I took at the beginning of the rally as long term trades) and wait for the retrace to compete before entering a long term Long buying campaign. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
41 minutes ago, Mercury said:

It rather seems that USD price action is driving precious metals at present with USD weakness supporting rallying Gold/Silver.  Looking at the technicals on both it is simply an end to my anticipated consolidation part way through the medium term rally, which presents as a Flag or Pennant.  In both Gold and Silver we have seen a breakout of this consolidation and in the latter a break through over head resistance.  I expect both these markets to continue to rally for a while to complete the medium term wave 1 before a more significant wave 2 bearish retrace that will set up a very long Bullish trend.

My trading strategy is to go Long on the breakouts, mentioned above, watch XAUUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.c9cef41d4e25056f836c87432ede2b9c.pngXAGUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.d1c43d292fc60da667c78e16aecbe523.pngout for any short term bearish retraces as an opportunity to buy the dip until I see signals of the wave 1 end and then exit all swing Longs (keeping only those I took at the beginning of the rally as long term trades) and wait for the retrace to compete before entering a long term Long buying campaign. 

 

 

 

Buy Gold, Long Term sir ?? How far will it be? Help me sir ??

Share this post


Link to post
4 minutes ago, gautamhait said:

Buy Gold, Long Term sir ?? How far will it be? Help me sir ??

Thank you sir

Share this post


Link to post

Hmm, it seems like you are asking for a tip @gautamhait, I don't do tips.  There are some services around that do this if you are interested but of course they charge for the service.

If you are asking how far I think Gold will go I can say that I think (think being the key word here) that Gold (and precious metals generally) will go into a long term Bull run coincident with a major bear market in stocks.  How far, how long?  No idea, I let the market decide that and act accordingly using my trading methodology.  In the short term I think Gold/Silver will continue to rally, which is something I highlighted as a possible scenario early in this thread.  My next targets are 1360 (Gold) and 1750 (Silver), although naturally the markets could fall short of that or push through a bit further.  At some point I expect to see reversal indicators that will signal a bearish phase.  Depending on the price action that emerges I will look to see whether this is an actual trend reversal or just a retrace of the current Bullish trend.  Nothing is certain, the markets will reveal themselves in due course.  However, so far Gold/Silver is playing out according to my lead long term scenario, as outlined in this thread, so I would be foolish indeed to start second guessing myself.  I am focused on 2 things in precious metals markets: 

  1. Maximising the opportunity my scenario is offering in a risk managed fashion - so far so good
  2. Watching out for price action that may call my lead scenario into question - nothing so far...

Let me ask you what you think Gautamhait?  This is supposed to be a discussion forum after all...

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
On Mon Jan 28 2019 at 04:37, Mercury said:

Hmm, it seems like you are asking for a tip @gautamhait, I don't do tips.  There are some services around that do this if you are interested but of course they charge for the service.

If you are asking how far I think Gold will go I can say that I think (think being the key word here) that Gold (and precious metals generally) will go into a long term Bull run coincident with a major bear market in stocks.  How far, how long?  No idea, I let the market decide that and act accordingly using my trading methodology.  In the short term I think Gold/Silver will continue to rally, which is something I highlighted as a possible scenario early in this thread.  My next targets are 1360 (Gold) and 1750 (Silver), although naturally the markets could fall short of that or push through a bit further.  At some point I expect to see reversal indicators that will signal a bearish phase.  Depending on the price action that emerges I will look to see whether this is an actual trend reversal or just a retrace of the current Bullish trend.  Nothing is certain, the markets will reveal themselves in due course.  However, so far Gold/Silver is playing out according to my lead long term scenario, as outlined in this thread, so I would be foolish indeed to start second guessing myself.  I am focused on 2 things in precious metals markets: 

  1. Maximising the opportunity my scenario is offering in a risk managed fashion - so far so good
  2. Watching out for price action that may call my lead scenario into question - nothing so far...

Let me ask you what you think Gautamhait?  This is supposed to be a discussion forum after all...

What are services??

What are the services??

Share this post


Link to post

Do a google search @gautamhait but research them carefully, there are a lot of snake oil salesmen around.  I can't recommend any because I don't use them.  If you are going to use any make sure they use a methodology similar to yours.

Regarding Gold, it looks to me that my long term road map remains intact.  Precious metals went into a consolidation phase as suggested previously but may now have bounced back into a continuation of the rally phase.  If we see a fresh higher high soon I will be keeping a beady eye on price action as the potential neckline resistance zone is approached.  Currently I am anticipating a fairly significant rejection around this point (+/-) into a wave 2 bearish retrace but this would be just a prelude to a much stronger rally phase.

XAUUSD-Daily_170219.thumb.png.3c2f99c2e268b9137e79e4861f67f7e7.png 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
On 23/10/2018 at 18:20, TrendFollower said:

Have you guys considered Bullion Vault?

https://www.bullionvault.com

I used them during the last major gold bull run well over 10 years ago. 

@TrendFollower Did you do due diligence on the company's trustworthiness?  I have to admit I like their products but before don't want to commit serious cash unless I can be sure there's no circumstances in which management can dip their fingers into my assets.  I'm going through their writeup to determine if you have to buy the gold in lots to be able to collect it (just in case the world goes pear shaped)!

 

Great thread - I was wondering what all your thoughts are about today's move which seems to be a strong move out of prior range.  

Thanks in advance.

Share this post


Link to post

Didn't see your comment until today @psycho so any comments are obviously with the benefit of hindsight.  I had wondered if this rally would make it to the potential Head & Shoulders Neckline up at around 1360 but the market looks to have fallen short of this.  Regardless I was expecting a large time frame EWT 1-2 retrace , which I believe has just started.  This could take a bit of time to play out, although the move down on Silver has been fast.  For me such a move is likely to be volatile and, if it coincides with my lead scenario for indices (a complex retrace) could play out towards May.  Note that on Gold there was a spike on the COT data with the Non Commercials jumping into net Longs just as the market turned.  As a contrarian this is a good signal of the end of a rally, I exited my Longs shortly thereafter.  I will sit this out for now and await a confirmation of a retrace completions before looking to get Long for a Long, Long rally.

BTW: although I have shown Silver retrace terminating at the neckline breakout zone this is indicative only at this stage, as all my road maps are, and I would not be surprised to see the long term supporting trend-line retested on Silver.

XAUUSD-Weekly_010319.thumb.png.bf69baa47f4e2dc66f5f4a62aa021653.pngXAUUSD-Daily_010319.thumb.png.5afd92165473ab4e64b6a3c107e2eaaf.pngXAGUSD-Daily_01019.thumb.png.a428aafd372452353da6262219f50b8a.png   

Share this post


Link to post

Gold is getting a small bounce but is that on the back of stocks Bearishness, USD apparent strength or something else.  I can't really tell right now and unless Stocks are following my #2 scenario (see USD indices, are we there yet thread) I can't really see this as the end of the larger retrace.  So I remain with my previously posted road map.  This rally will, under that scenario, either trace a wave B from here or give us another small leg down before it does.  After that comes a longer wave C to complete the retrace, possible as low as a retest of the prevailing long term supporting trend-line, which would suck in a lot of precious metal Bears, prior to a long, long rally.  For precious metals I feel it is important to watch USD moves in the short to medium but overall economic and stocks moves for the long term.

The Negative Momentum Divergence is still dominant in the technical set up for me but Stochastic is over sold so a period of bullishness is likely,  remains to be seen whether this will turn back down before a higher high or run up to hit the the overhanging resistance first before any medium term retrace.  This uncertainty means precious metals are not a good bet right now for me.

I am content to hold Longs from way down for the long term, having cashed some on a dual bet strategy.  I am waiting for this current pattern to trace out before looking for additional Longs but I will not be taking precious metals Short nor swing trading in what I expect to be a volatile (whip plash type - not the good type) period and view the set up as too uncertain.  I would rather look to swing trade stocks and main USD FX pairs that Gold/Silver at present.

 XAUUSD-Daily_090319.thumb.png.3eece912d58f549fe0d3e75e3a5d57bb.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

Gold and Silver are broadly still following my road map.  I have added what I believe is a strong channel (both upper and lower lines have a lot of price turn touches).  The breakout zone of this channel offers the favourite options for a wave B conclusion (Also Fib 62%), with Fib 76/78% not that much further up this represents a strong resistance zone for me. 

Silver and Gold are showing some strong congruence in pattern with similarity of Channel and breakout.  Wave A looks to be concluded now it remains to be seen how the potential wave B plays out.

I am not really key to trade this retrace as I am waiting for a long term rally signal to go Long and there are better short term trading opportunities elsewhere in my view.  So long as my road map set ups remain intact I am content to track and wait.

 XAUUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.a514e7caa8da7e99cfcb27b4d2ec1a23.pngXAGUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.d1143f8d9f128f1ef421efb55f6b2d02.png

Share this post


Link to post
On 17/03/2019 at 20:10, Mercury said:

Gold and Silver are broadly still following my road map.  I have added what I believe is a strong channel (both upper and lower lines have a lot of price turn touches).  The breakout zone of this channel offers the favourite options for a wave B conclusion (Also Fib 62%), with Fib 76/78% not that much further up this represents a strong resistance zone for me. 

Silver and Gold are showing some strong congruence in pattern with similarity of Channel and breakout.  Wave A looks to be concluded now it remains to be seen how the potential wave B plays out.

I am not really key to trade this retrace as I am waiting for a long term rally signal to go Long and there are better short term trading opportunities elsewhere in my view.  So long as my road map set ups remain intact I am content to track and wait.

 XAUUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.a514e7caa8da7e99cfcb27b4d2ec1a23.pngXAGUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.d1143f8d9f128f1ef421efb55f6b2d02.png

What is gold and silver position sir???

 

Share this post


Link to post

Ok could be the right move if the stock markets crash from here or if you have wide enough stops and are comfortable holding against a large draw down if stocks go on an extended complex retrace through to the Summer, which would fit with my lead scenario for Gold/Silver, as outlined above.

It all hangs on the probability you have placed on stocks dropping heavily and when vs any other scenario and assessment of other drivers of precious metals markets, some of which are intrinsic to the individual markets (i.e. industrial consumption and sentiment).

My view is that precious metals will go on a raging bull run in due course when stocks capitulate and a depressionary recession kicks in that drives volatility in interest rates.

Recent comments about a bond rate inversion are relevant to this scenario because they suggest an interest rate situation that is unsettling (i.e. unstable/potentially volatile) but it is not an immediate trigger to trade (except maybe to cash in shareholdings).  Things usually happen slower than we might expect.

I might expect to see bond prices drop further rather than rise, and maybe heavily, prior to a recession driven recovery.  The key determining factor for the bond market is the yield curve.  So if you believe interest rates will stay ultra low or negative for ever (the new normal concept being pushed by various economists to explain why their models still work...) then bond prices can rise further.  Note: currently they are very high relative to historic levels - past performance does not mean future performance will follow suit, in fact often the reverse is true.  However the received wisdom relationship between bonds and stocks (i.e. stocks down therefore bonds up in flight to safety) is not a secure hypothesis.  The bond market is many times larger than stocks so any funds flow from stocks is not a material impact factor vs other factors such as state of the economy and interest rates (yield curve).

Why is all that relevant to gold?  Well a very experience fund manager I was listening to on a precious metals conference a few years ago stated the following was necessary for a sustained bull market in Gold:

  1. Interest rate backdrop unsettling (Inflation hedge)
  2. Gold rising in all major currencies (i.e. not just a USD relationship driver)
  3. Gold capital growth beating the stock market (SP500) 

So when and if we see yield curves rising (we had a precursor recently) and see the USD/Gold relationship disconnect and see stock markets enter a sustained Bear market we ought to be seeing precious metals in a sustained Bull run.  But are we there yet?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold continues to follow my road map with a wave B (green) now completed and a typical sharp move into a wave C.  When this is completed we can anticipate a strong rally away in a large scale wave 3 that may run and run.  The Wave B turned in the previous rally (wave 1 blue) channel breakout zone and right around the Fib 62%.  I expect the wave C to make it to at least the Fib 50% off the wave 1 top, which would also be coincidental with the closing of a currently un-closed gap with the MA200 lurking around the same area.  Failing that there is also support around the Fib 62% and the long term supporting trend-line.  Note also the Reverse Death Cross.  Not the first one in this extended consolidation zone but the first one is often reversed and then actioned again in an EWT 1-2, which is what we can see on the Weekly chart.

Silver is showing similar signals except it didn't even make the channel retest zone had fell faster and further, as is often the case.  With Silver I would not be surprised to see a retest of the LT supporting trend-line.  A bounce off this area with a coincident bounce off the Gold Fib 50% zone would be compelling for me.

 

XAUUSD-Daily_300319.thumb.png.7ec0d874c2b6b74d20317de1f3655c87.pngXAGUSD-Daily_300319.thumb.png.b76da7785847a63ae3433b1b05a83410.png

Share this post


Link to post

looks down (ish) atm

Capture gld.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

Still following my road map.

What could continue to drive precious metals lower?  Intrinsic market sentiment of course but also perhaps lower USD and high stocks.  Hmm!  I am seeing a rally in EURUSD (hence lower USD is on the cards and stocks?  Could be another ATH on the cards?  But if so then not for long as the key support areas for both Gold and Silver come up in fairly quick order.

One to watch and wait for a Long campaign that could run and run. 

 

XAUUSD-Daily_130419.thumb.png.0491f221a46c45cb6bc394b4412841f4.png

  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post

Both Gold and Silver are still following my road map however both have hit an interesting juncture, which could prove to be an early turning point.  I am still favouring the Fib 50% for Gold, a long term reliable Fib level for this market (however it does not occur at a strong price action support level this time so a further deeper retrace could be on the cards) and if that happens then Silver retesting the long term supporting trend line is also on the cards.

So much for that, what about the case for the current levels?

Gold:

  1. Complex form retrace (EWT) completed (that is an A-B-C with internal A-B-C forms on each leg)
  2. Pos Mom Divergence at the current price point on Daily and 4 Hourly charts
  3. RSI and Stochastic both over sold
  4. Credible 1-5 wave down to current price point
  5. Bounce off the Fib 38% and associated support zone
  6.  Potential Triangle breakout and retest then rally away on 4 Hourly chart

Similar on Silver, although perhaps less compelling.  I might expect a further drop on Silver with Gold holding or rallying slowly.  I am Long Gold at the Fib 38% with tight stops just below the turning point for a very low exposure trade.  For me this was worth the small loss if Gold carries on down but there may be another chance to get Long on a near term EWT 1-2.  And maybe Platinum is showing the way...

XAUUSD-Daily_180419.thumb.png.1b80893fc5db554332c3d4375baff1c9.pngXAUUSD-4-hours_180419.thumb.png.5943ee0ce0630921d79506c133c7f4de.pngXAGUSD-Daily_180419.thumb.png.51027ce16c36cb160fa1b030b967d197.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

At face value the Fib 38% looks to have turned Gold back into a rally phase but I am not yet convinced.  Longs are stop protected at break even but I do not expect this rally to stick.  To justify this I have to go back to the very long term picture and start with the Monthly to remind myself where we are.

On the Monthly we have seen a drop from the 2011 peak, which could either be seen as a 1-5 or an A-B-C.  That doesn't matter much at this stage as either scenario projects a rally beyond the 1400 level.  If it is a 1-5 some people will suggest we will only see an A-B-C counter trend rally, which will not surpass the 2011 highs.  If it is an A-B-C then fresh ATHs are indicated.  For now at least we can expect a significant rally that should carry through the 1400 ice/neckline after a clear H&S formation (it doesn't much matter whether the Right Shoulder (RS) is at Pink or Purple wave 2 for this purposes).  Note also the very strong PMD at the H&S turning point.

The Weekly chart is very interesting because there is a potential retrace triangle pattern in play.  Stochastic is oversold, which is supportive of a turn but not yet conclusive.  The COT data is not at a compelling level for me as it has not yet reached a net negative position, which has occurred at the last 2 recent significant rally points.  However in the past the turning points were coincident with lowest net long positions rather than actual negative positions (i.e. net short) and current COT is nearing negative at 36k, which would support a turn.  The ultimate reason why I think we will see another leg lower and a test of the Fib 50% level is because there is an un-closed gap at this point.

Zooming in to the Daily chart, we can see that un-closed gap more clearly, which is in the Fib 50% zone.  This is currently just below the Weekly Triangle lower line and a coincidence on these two occurs around the end of May.  There is PMD and a credible A-B-C completion at the Fib 38% but this would be stronger with another leg down.  There are other obvious support zones below the Fib 50% but I think the Fib 50% is the highest likelihood support zone.

 

XAUUSD-Monthly_270419.thumb.png.03005d7a488bca52883bb04023fd844e.pngXAUUSD-Weekly_270419.thumb.png.e9b9eb8c105a7b36efe3982a1c1c3db7.pngXAUUSD-Daily_270419.thumb.png.719bf4d5a30c5526eb38e73d9f69f79e.png

Share this post


Link to post

Looking at Silver I see a very similar set up, unsurprisingly.  In this case however, on the Monthly chart, we have a double bottom, rather than a H&S formation, at the Fib 76/78% support zone, a much further Bearish drop than Gold, again unsurprising.  A similar strong PMD exists at the 2015 turning point on the Monthly chart.  Again the move down from 2011 could be an A-B-C or a 1-5.  The rallies have not carried as far as Gold, falling short of the Fib 23% even and the long term ice line off the double bottom and key resistance remains, as yet, unbroken.

On the Weekly chart the sideways retrace move is synonymous with a complex retrace, many A-B-Cs and whip lash but the wave 2 (Purple) has strong PMD at Nov 2018 as well.  Price action since then is consistent with an EWT 1-2 retrace that is setting up for a strong wave 3 that would carry through many zones of resistance.  Stochastic is oversold, as with Gold ,but unlike Gold, Silver is in net negative (Bearish) COT territory, just.  In the recent past Non Comms have got the turns wrong in terms of net COT position.  However they never go very far into full Bearish territory with lows of net -30k in Aug/Sept 2018 being the most Bearish since 2007.  Often turns occur in low Teens positive so really a turn any time now is consistent with COT data since 2007.

On the Daily we can see an interesting Triangle formation, the top line of which price stopped at the close on Friday,  There is strong PMD at the Tues 23 April turn point, which was on the Fib 62% and a credible A-B-C retrace has formed.  However, as with Gold, I can't help feeling there is another leg down to this move.  I would like to see a more negative COT and a test of the possible H&S neckline, although I am not sure how strong the H&S really is.  A breakout of the Daily Triangle would be Bullish, given all other indicators support a turn into a Bullish phase.

So net on Silver I see 3 scenarios in order of likelihood as follows:

  1. All the current signals are pointing to a turn at the Fib 62% and a breakout of the Daily Triangle would add to this set up.  Note, in standard charting theory a Triangle formation is strong if broken about 2/3 of the way to the apex.  The close price gets to the apex after than the less reliable the formation is.
  2. A close second, or maybe a slight favourite, is a test of the H&S neckline coincident with another test of the lower Daily chart Triangle line in mid May.
  3. A much harder drop and retest of the long term supporting trend-line, around the Fib 76/78% level, this could be coincident with another leg down for Gold as Silver often amplifies Gold moves.
  4. The whole major long term rally idea is proved wrong as precious metals crash into a long term Bearish move - not very likely at all in my opinion.

 

XAGUSD-Monthly_270419.thumb.png.ccc53ecfa3a286c8ae74a11f6199f28f.pngXAGUSD-Weekly_270419.thumb.png.563e0db144916bd67d5f56e4ca86cbcb.pngXAGUSD-Daily_270419.thumb.png.8f086796e1505f2fcae1888c259bfc87.png

Share this post


Link to post

Gold looks to be poking through the Weekly Retrace Triangle resistance trend line, but of course the day is not yet over and the Week has just begun.  If this zone does result in a sustained break (close above) then the turn back into the Bullish trend could be happening.  Where Gold goes can Silver  be far behind?  To date precious metals seem to be more aligned to USD than anything else, although this is not conclusive in my view.  Still a period of USD weakness, as projected in FX analysis, could lift precious metals short to medium term.  What it will take to whip metals on to a major rally is something else but USD weakness could trigger the turn back after retrace.

XAUUSD-Daily_130519.thumb.png.6c62393acd574eb756badeb11651e7f5.png

  

Share this post


Link to post

Breakout failed on Gold, either a false breakout or a rebound back off resistance Triangle line (take your pick).  Doesn't matter much, looks like Gold has resumed the road map path to lower support zones.  Picture is even clearer on Silver, which is currently testing a potential H&S neckline.  However if Gold does continue down to at lead the Fib 50% then Silver will probably retest it's long term supporting trendline.   I await developments, on the sideline, with interest.

XAUUSD-Daily_170519.thumb.png.fa614bd296f516d084572c218433a091.pngXAGUSD-Daily_170519.thumb.png.763180504504634c7365c5c6ada5e70c.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,775
    • Total Posts
      40,551
    • Total Members
      50,937
    Newest Member
    Mthobza01
    Joined 20/11/19 20:11
  • Posts

    • One should treat trading like a business. In any successful business there would be a business plan. So for any successful trader there must be a trading plan.  There is a cheesy line but very true which is something like - failing to plan is a plan to fail.  Some of the best and most successful traders in the world will have and are more likely to have a trading plan. I would be surprised if they do not.  This trading plan can be an evolving plan which can be changed and adapted as situations change, knowledge improves, experience is gained, etc. 
    • We have seen some remarkable trends in 2019. We have seen Bitcoin in the first six months. We have seen the major US indices. We have seen Bonds for around seven months of this year. One can trade different assets using trend following principles. It really does not matter what the asset is as long as it is trending strongly and one can profit from its price movement. I think trading different assets using trend following principles allows a form of diversification. It really does not matter as you are trading based on price action and it is the price action that is important rather than the name of the asset. If you are stubborn and refuse to trade some assets due to personal beliefs, ego's, etc. then you face a real chance of missing out on the some of the potential trends that can significantly enhance your trading performance for the year.  Diversification can also be used as part of a risk management strategy. 
×
×