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Gold & Silver in a LT rally

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Updated 1H chart with the LT support zone included.  A break out of the bottom of this zone is a trigger for a longer bearish phase.

Brent-1-hour_070819.thumb.png.1aa89edf7362f83432853ade5a0d793f.png

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Posted (edited)

@Mercury

I don't understand what you mean about gold losing juice.  It looks like it's rising relentlessly.  What am I missing?

Edited by dmedin

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@dmedin, what I am referring to is the following:

  1. Markets move in waves or phases: up/down; up/down and so on.  Sometimes these up/downs are overall rising and sometimes the opposite, which is how we get Bull and Bear markets - ok you know that!
  2. Before a market turns down it typically rises in a trend (short/medium/long term).  There trend is your friend, until the bend in the end.  A market will typically look very bullish in trend terms at the top.
  3. Contrarians view an all in zeitgeist either was as a warning that things are about to go into reverse.  This especially true at key turning points.  I went Long Gold down around 1200 when trend followers were telling me it was Bearish, this was one reason I went Long.  The analogy is that if everyone is on one side of the boat it will capsize unless some people run to the other side.
  4. If there is no one who wants to sell Gold right now then how can bulls buy?  So either the price jumps in large gaps, unusual in a highly liquid market like gold, until we reach a price people are willing to sell at or the market collapses back as people take fright, hence the options i posted.
  5. The simplest trading and investing maxim is buy low, sell high.  For trading that can be translated into take Longs at the bottom of a range and go short at the top of the range.  The trick is to identify the range and the likelihoods of the various scenarios in play, for that I use a variety of technical analysis, which I have shared in previous posts.  The exposure at these range extremes is low as if I am wrong I get stopped out quickly but the rewards potential is high.

At this point I do not know which will win out but I am prepared to take advantage of either when my criteria are met to trigger a trade.  For Gold I want to see a spike up and rebound back down through my ST up-sloping channel t trigger a Short and/or a small 1-2 down/up and drop.  If that doesn't occur and there is a breakout then the answer is go Long, but watch out for a fakeout.  We may well get a retrace drop in Stock indices that produces a panic buy in PMs and then a reversal that causes an exhaustion spike in the price, typically on low volume.

On Silver I would be expecting to see such a spike as Silver is more volatile than Gold but a spike and return back within the current price levels would be a bearish signal.

 

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@Mercury

 

That all sounds very true and reasonable however gold seems to be in a definite uptrend to me, so I would be buying dips.  I tried to short a couple of times recently thinking it must surely be due for a pullback but lost out.  If the underlying trend is up, I don't see any reason to short but rather instead to buy dips.  Unless there is evidence that the trend is turning, and there's no evidence of that for gold yet is there?

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Broken out of a rising wedge - to the upside :D

254413962_SpotGold_20190807_13_52.thumb.png.3afff983cb9fd273ae201c06600ca771.png

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I don't agree the daily chart wedge @dmedin but never mind that.  Agree being Long but at what point would you cash longs?  What evidence would you wish to see to reverse your bias?

Updated charts attached.

XAUUSD-4-hours_070819.thumb.png.d389f460f9d420a9b37922e454af82fe.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_070819.thumb.png.8a6a733fcfeda588880ef387756f4e35.png

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@Mercury

I would already have cashed in my profits (if I was so fortunate) ... would like to see the price around 1450 before I'd be comfortable going long just now.

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If the market turns bearish at this juncture I expect it will drop a lot further than 1450 @dmedin.  Going Long there could be catching the falling knife.  All depends on a) a turn and b) the price action nature of the move down.  If the market turns at 1500 then with the level of NMD against it I would anticipate a significant bearish move until that negativity is eroded.  A breakout of the resistance area (or your wedge if it would be valid) would be a bullish signal to buy the breakout.

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Gold exhaustion spike in the making if US large cap stocks rally is sustained beyond previous highs.

XAUUSD-1-hour_070819.thumb.png.d8a87d9b7766904cd23e1c5440856ab3.png

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Posted (edited)

As an aside, I'm starting to really dislike these sudden massive drops and immediate reversals of U.S. stocks.  It almost makes me want to avoid them altogether, along with the indices.  How can anyone trade such randomness?

If gold closes the week above 1500 then I am tempted to go long to see if it hits the next Fibonacci target of 1586.

Edited by dmedin

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So has Silver peaked?  Sure looks so.  On the Weekly chart it looks like a failed test of a long term resistance trend line and associated resistance zone.  As the week is not yet over this is inclusive so lets look at the daily.  Here we see that rejection on strong NMD and a 1-5 EWT count. If this holds below today then the bearish retrace is looking on.  On the 4H chart you can see the move on ore detail with a small 1-2 bullish retrace o set up the fast move down.  The price action on the 1H will be important to distinguish whether this is a medium term trend change or just a blip (note the LT trend remains bullish).

XAGUSD-Weekly_080819.thumb.png.5c09a796cd10d8ee56dea62d82392a0a.pngXAGUSD-Daily_080819.thumb.png.66632de812867d48d6cf02c85be552f3.pngXAGUSD-4-hours_080819.thumb.png.e5e9b744806aa89563eb8d012acd549a.png

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Something similar happening on Gold with a potential resistance and channel overshoot and return back.  A small 1-2 bullish retrace followed by a small drop and channel lower line breakout.  Not as strong a set up not as definitive on price action but the saying, "as goes Silver, so goes Gold" springs to mind.  Or is it the other way around, certainly was for a few months there.

XAUUSD-1-hour_080819.thumb.png.4add81d514c6898108a12bfe0ea8de52.png 

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I don't have the sophisticated skills that you do @Mercury but here all signs point to gold being in a 'very strong uptrend'.  There's no point whistling in the wind; don't go short when the trend is obviously and inexorably up.

1712171555_SpotGold_20190809_12_37.thumb.png.2549b25049ed604e4657842af54c69d5.png

 

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@Mercury,

On what timeframe do you think Silver's long term trend looks bullish?

1738073939_SpotSilver_20190809_13_21.thumb.png.a43ca6fb281d4d77016c20a8c169cb18.png

1473839872_SpotSilver_20190809_13_22.thumb.png.1adbf4990d322ff5ac4dcb75c1ca5d71.png

86490357_SpotSilver_20190809_13.22-2.thumb.png.ea0ecb5565ed459effc6524b6bc00b65.png

It is only the timeframes from '4 Hourly' to below that it begins to look bullish. For me long term in trading is 'Daily', 'Weekly' and 'Monthly'. Anything below this would be medium term. So say for example 4 Hourly to 1 Hourly. Anything in the minutes would be short term. 

Silver since its peak back in 2011 has been declining but there is now a real sense of a longer term breakout potential. It has not been confirmed yet on the longer term timeframes but it seems to be heading in that direction. The price action will provide us with confirmation in the coming months no doubt. 

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Well one of you is wrong...

The thing about trading is that different traders see different things.  If they didn't, if they all saw the same thing, the market wouldn't work, it would be in perfect equilibrium all the time and simple gap jump to the next perfect valuation.  This, by the way, is why value methods don't work in my opinion.  It is easy to be a value investor in a raging bull market...  The markets are voting machine, not a weighing machine (not my quote).  It is principally speculation and therefore it is all about sentiment.

Must I keep reiterating the same things over and over again?  The trend is your friend, until the bend in the end.  As a swing trader I am all about seeking that bend and understanding where in the inexorable up/down; down/up cycle.  It is not surprising, in fact it is expected, for trend followers to disagree with my analysis at key turning points, indeed if they did not I would be worried.  Trend followers, in general, including some of the well know hedge funds, follow the trend over the edge and then have to madly scramble to cover.  Sure some have trailing stop mechanisms but by then it is all over.  I don't have a problem with this it just isn't what I do.  When having a discussion with someone it is vital to know where they are coming from and we can all be right from our own perspectives, at least for a while...

I think my past post have been pretty clear on where I stand on both Gold and Silver and why.  I think the trend down from the 2011 highs is over, check out my many technical analysis posts on this thread for why.  I think both are in the process of, or have already, broken key resistance (more Gold than Silver in this case) but I feel like there is a strong case for a significant pull back before the uber rally really gets going, I have also posted on that previously.  All clear?

@dmedin, I have a lot of sympathy with your views,  I too would not go Short until I see reversal signals.  We are flirting with that now but nothing conclusive yet.  However, as with the recent scenario on the US large caps, and other stock indices, and therefore most of the individual stocks (as I know you like to look at these), to be successful one must be open minded to these trend change breakouts.  This is how I caught the Bearish fast drop at the end of last week and how I cashed for profit before the rally eroded my profits.

I will remind us of that @elle wisely said a little while ago, "every trend is destined o be broken" (or words to that effect.  It is the breakout a swing trader seeks.  It is the breakout that cements a trend change BUT in some cases we don't have to wait for that, if we identify a credible bottom, which I believe I have on Gold and Silver and traded it accordingly, which I also posted on previously.

Not sure how much more clarity I can offer.  Disagree if you like no problem.

 

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WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...

HSBC... Deutsche and some other BIG banks just loaned the PBOC 450 BILLION to help them prevent their currency from total collapse..

The backstory.. The CEO of HSBC has just been fired for it..

It was said China has 3 trillion in US reserves but now it is being revealed..

1 trillion was earmarked for the belt and road initiative and the other trillions have been tied up in swaps and derivatives as the currency has already dropped 30% to 7.5.

It is estimated the currency will eventually devalue another 40%.

... Long gold 😉 

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@Mercury

I think our thoughts and principles differ in trading and that is fine and healthy. There is nothing wrong with us not agreeing. 

I am not sure why the future price action must conform to Elliot Wave Theory - EWT (especially as most traders will be aware of it around the world). I accept that on occasions the price action may fit the EWT model but there will be many occasions when it does not. So do you only trade those assets where you think the price action is more likely to confirm to EWT and ignore trading those assets where clearly the price action is not following EWT?

I appreciate you may have stated somewhere in one of your many posts but you must appreciate that both of us have created several threads and posts and we both cannot remember what we have stated in all of them and when. 

I am just intrigued as I am keeping an open mind on EWT but I want to see some data and evidence that proves that adopting EWT in your trading strategy along with other things of course will increase your odds and probability of success. If I was to be presented with this then I would be willing to keep an open mind and go through this material but I am yet to come across anything credible or conclusive to date. 

I suppose if it works for you then hey why not. 👍

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@TrendFollower

 

EWT, like TA in general, can be manipulated and twisted to explain any and every situation 'after the fact'.  It is so flexible that one can literally never admit to being wrong, there are no rules without potential expressions.

Or, as the professional technical analysts always say, 'Price may go up, or it may go down'.

That's the ONLY thing anyone can say with 100% certainty.   :D

 

 

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Well this is not a general trading strategy thread so if you want to discuss the whys and wherefores of EWT open a thread there and see if anyone is interested.  Or you could just research it like everyone else, no one is going to hand it to you on a plate.  Anyway in order to learn you have to put the effort in, no other way.

So back to Gold and Silver.  The week produced another rally phase and more price action data to work with (oh yes, technical analysis is based on past price action - stop press..!).  So is fundamentals analysis as it happens.  Silver in particular is at a critical juncture right now as it tests a long term down sloping trend line.  Whether it breaks this soon or falls away will be an important signal.  This is not hindsight, this is contemporaneous with price action.

Non Commercial Commitment of Traders (COT) data dropped back on Silver, which may indicate a weakening of conviction as we approach this critical juncture.  Gold COT however advanced this week to equal the most bullish readings since 2007 (which was July 2016 when both Long and net long).  In 2016 Gold was at a critical juncture too and the gold bugs were talking up a big rally, sound familiar?  Check out what happen after July 2016.  Not saying that will happen again but it is eminently possible and therefore it is a scenario that cannot be discounted yet, unless you are so convinced you cannot see anything else, which I consider a dangerous psychology when I notice it in myself, sort of hubris in the making...

On Silver the daily chart is showing bearish signals (negative divergence on several oscillators) over and above the COT data contrarian view.  These will be false if this is in a mega rally but if not then a significant retrace may be seen before that rally.

Overall both markets look like they are full bullish and long term I am bullish but there is a doubt as to whether we will get a significant retrace to "prime the pump" for a big rally.  Silver looks weaker than gold, unsurprisingly as gold gets all the coverage.  When Silver breaks it will break faster and this is the reason I am more interested in trading Silver than Gold.  Could Gold go into consolidation while Silver retraces down harder?  Sure.  In a long term trend, bullish for both these markets (how many times have you seen Silver and Gold trends diverge?), buy the dips is the best strategy.  Would it make sense to go Long now then?  Not for me.  I will only add Longs when I see a decent pull back and break through the key resistance area on Silver.  For me this is no longer about spotting the turn, I did that successfully months and months ago and went Long at the time while others were trying to tell me the trend hadn't changed (yeeeah!).  Now people are trying to tell me a bearish retrace is not possible (yeeeah!).  Bottom line here is that a trader must trust their own system and judgement and block out naysayers, especially those that do not understand their method and how it is used.

XAGUSD-Monthly_100819.thumb.png.87f4f39e61803618c43de2dfc2478901.pngXAGUSD-Daily_100819.thumb.png.3c550e64fc7af64f3351c4cdcae82c3c.pngXAUUSD-Weekly_100819.thumb.png.593e827c89067c38621c099b7c0afed6.png

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@Mercury

 

You're absolutely right, the price could go either up or down in any given time frame.  EWT is a very nice and convoluted way to express this fundamental platitude.

Silver as a precious metal/source of value?  I think not.  Not since the 18th century anyway.  It's an industrial metal so its value will fall during recessions.

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Regarding the comment on Silver, I have heard this one before, may be a good topic for the market myths debate.  Here is a chart of 100 year historic silver prices, not adjusted for inflation.  What I see is Silver largely ignoring recessions in a a series of speculative spikes each one higher then the last after a U shaped bottom.  You can see the same thing on Gold, there are closely related and highly correlated.  I see no reason for a divergence now.  Silver is a market in and of itself that performs according to its own internal dynamics and is driven by sentiment just like any other market.  To trade it one must be open to its own internal eccentricities and price action.  In a world of buy low sell high what makes most sense on Silver right now?

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart'>Silver

 

516163358_historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart-2019-08-11-macrotrendsunadjusted.thumb.png.0d78c4a62ca058b7c2a0966b533ef219.png

 

 

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Gold chart - I trust you can see what's happened - for this to continue it must hold above the last break out imo

Capture gold.PNG

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Posted (edited)

@Mercury

 

You're quite right, indeed.  I suppose silver has an intrinsic value in terms of its desirability as an object, for some people at least.  Like artwork and aged wine.

Edited by dmedin

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@Mercury,

Data and charts can be viewed by different people and interpreted in many different ways. We can all show what we want it to. If you look at the chart below then it is from the same website and the price is more or less where it was around the 1920's (inflation adjusted)

It seems the 1980's speculative bubble was higher than the 2011 speculative bubble. We can highlight what we want the data to show to support our point. 
 
I do not doubt a potential rising in price for Gold and Silver based on economic and political uncertainty over the next year or two. However my long term 'Road Map' for Gold especially is that once it experiences a speculative bubble which it will due to market uncertainly over the coming months and possibly years it will begin to fall back down. It will not stay at the higher levels. Also my longer term 'Road Map' is that the younger generation will invest more in digital assets rather than Gold in their investment portfolio's in years to come. Their portfolio will be based on technology more than Gold. Once this fundamental shift occurs then I see the Gold price falling longer term than appreciating. Of course this is many years away but that is my longer term view at present. This could change but let us see what happens. 

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Apologies but the chart is not showing above in my post for some reason. It is the same chart as when you click on the link that Mercury posted. 

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Gold and Silver remain in lock step (funny that...) and looks to be in a rocket to the stars but took a wobble this week and whatever the reasons perhaps it was a precursor of a potential retrace bearish move, which is surely overdue.  With stocks apparently rising again maybe now is the time for professionals to take some profits, which would have the dual effect of dropping the market and offering lower reentry.  Who wouldn't want to do that if they could..?  If they knew every other professional would...

Whatever the whys and wherefores we can all agree that markets move in waves or zig-zags and we are due a zag on Gold and Silver.  When it is over I think we will see the enormous wave rally that some notables have been calling for.  Even trend followers would agree that in a massive trend you buy the dips (i am a trend follower too but only in wave 3s).  Are we at a dip now?  Unlike stocks, we are only at the start of this trend, especially in Silver, unless you believe Silver will detach from Gold and follow Copper instead, not much evidence for a Silver/Copper correlation though so I wouldn't bet the house on it...

It is my contention that Gold and Silver are gaining favour because of global political and economic uncertainty and no wonder, stocks are at impossible highs, the air is thin and the whole house of cards is being propped up by central bank largess, build on theories.  We are in uncharted territory and the only certainty is that markets do not go up up up for ever, could be time to pay the piper soon.  In this backdrop it is not surprising that traditional safe havens are popular, at least as a hedge.  But I don't think the rocket can really take off until all hell breaks loose and we are not yet there.  Maybe in a few months, hence I see a retrace down in precious metals first.

From a technicals perspective the long term turn and rally I have been talking about is surely now confirmed.  Even the trend followers who were negatively disposed to my thesis back then are now talking up the bullish trend...  The monthly chart shows that long term trend line support and the U shaped bottom that describes a head & shoulders pattern.  On shorter time frame charts I have a neckline for this H&S that could provide a zone for any potential retrace as such a pattern is quite common.  There is an alternative EWT labeling such that the blue 1-2 could be a pennant and the green 1-2 could retrace much further to hit that neckline.

On the 4H chart that sudden down move broke through a small expanding channel and then retested.  Overall the rally has achieved the Fib 88% but there was significant NMD on the top out after a clean 1-5 up.  Barring another higher high this currently looks like a strong retrace rally that could either be a 1-2 or an A-B, the former suggest a much longer retrace.  On the 1H chart there is NMD at the Fib 88% turn as well so there is a good chance that this move will break down into a medium term retrace move.  For swing traders are point on offer for Shorts but longer term spotting the turn will be important to add to long term Longs.

XAUUSD-Monthly_170819.thumb.png.ab5b09ef60bf4e3fd542916acd1b8a6d.pngXAUUSD-4-hours_170819.thumb.png.22e842f20743b4cf05780b577e171b5e.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_170819.thumb.png.73faad55c98cfa302d72051b68f67ba2.png

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In reply to Mercury I'd add the comment that gold and the precious metals group (PMG) tend to do well in a low interest rate environment. They do not pay a dividend so the premium for holding is therefore reduced. Gold in most other currencies (other than USD) has hit new record highs. It is especially so with a low REAL (as opposed to nominal) rate. We have the low rate but for gold and PMGS to really take off we need a bit more inflation. Sure there is a geo-political "safe haven" element but I'd say that has been more evident in the huge sovereign bond market and forcing short term rates even lower. Rates appear to be going more negative and this will be good for gold. If we get more inflation it will positively rocket. I'd be a buyer of gold on dips - which is what's happening at the moment after a good run up.

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That is a good additional point about rates @ChrisN, I have also mentioned the need for an uncertain rates backdrop to fuel PMs rally, we certainly have that with the Fed flipflops of late.  More broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet, doesn't make for great headlines I guess...  I think, as some credible commentators have said of late, that we will see currency wars ramp up in the coming months as Lagarde takes over from Draghi and Powell feels the pressure.  Japan will continue on with Abenomics, they don't know what else to do.  This is a bit new for China but they are showing all the signs of the same kind of interventions have have massive consumer bubbles domestically.  They are all desperate for inflation but it isn't coming so one of 2 things will surely happen next: either we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero or negative everywhere and a corresponding inflation explosion (yeah it aint gonna managed!) OR deflation.  It all feels like a coiled spring to me.  Under either scenario Gold is, well, golden...  No wonder it is surging.  Although I actually prefer the correlated Silver trade as it has more potential.

One additional point I forgot to include on my previous post, Gold non commercial COT data dropped off last week leaving the previous weeks reading as the all time high.  This is not conclusive alone but taken together with everything else is is something that I like to see at major turning points.  Early next week could tell the tale.

We can also look at SIlver for correlation.  Personally I would be very nervous about my thesis if I saw a divergence here.  Fortunately I don't, in fact if anything the case for a turn and retrace down on Silver is even greater.  The fundamentals are the same as for Gold.

On the Technicals front I see the following:

  • Very similar set up to Gold on the Monthly/Quarterly but in this case the drop was much greater, down to the Fib 78/78% zone on the very long term move, and there was a double bottom rather than a head & shoulders.
  • Currently price has just touched the overhead Triangle resistance trend line and rebounded off it this week with a sharp move down.  Interesting that both Gold and Silver did this and Stocks rebounded the other way.   US 2, 5 and 10 year notes also dropped sharply on the same day.  That's quite a few markets to manipulate at the same time...  Maybe it is something else?  Maybe it is sentiment turning?
  • There was very strong PMD at the wave C turn in 2016, which is nowhere near exhausted in my view (i.e. a lot more rally to come.  the breakout of the over head trend line is vital to this rally.
  • On the weekly chart you can see that price is currently in an historically strong congestion zone.  It would not be unreasonable to expect this to cause at least 1 retrace back to the bottom of that range.  For price to cut up swiftly through this congestion zone we would, I feel, need a lot stronger fundamentals case for chaos right now and it doesn't feel to me like we are there yet so I think a bearish retrace to gather momentum and wait for that case is on the cards.  Let's see the Fed blink and bring out the big guns and some further bad economic data, particularly from the US and China eh?  Also worth watching the bond market, Black Monday began in the Bond market, it is a much large market than stocks yet everyone is obsessed with stocks.
  • From an EWT perspective is is likely that we have a couple of 1-2 moves in the frame rather than a single rally phase.  This is important as the retrace would be deeper if this were 1 rally phase up.  This also suggests that Gold is similar.  Looking at the Daily chart you can see a near perfect A-B-C form for the 1-2 (blue) and a near perfect 1-5 (brown) up to the potential wave 1 (green) top and turn.  There was a clear 1-5 up to the wave 1 (blue) also (not shown but check previous posts if interested).  This means that so far the move is motive (1-5 is in the long term trend direction = motive; A-B-Cs are counter trend moves).
  • Unlike Gold we have a possible NMD at the top last week and similar on both RSI and Stochastic.  Not conclusive alone but taken together with everything else it fits a pattern.
  • Because the wave 2 (blue) dropped all the way to the Fib 76/78% the different between the Fib placement here and at the larger wave 2 (Purple) is minimal, again unlike Gold, which was more buoyant on the wave 2 (blue) and therefore less conclusive.  So drawing the Fib retracement indicator from blue 2 is a decent shout.
  • If the spike down and retrace rally is an A-B (brown), which it is large enough to be, then I would be targeting the Fib 50% for the wave 2 (green) retrace turn initially (circa 1600).  However if we get a strong move and Gold goes all the way to, say, 1360 (its neckline support zone) then 1500 (Fib 76/78% again) could easily be on the cards here.  Nice little swing trade if you can take it, but watch out for sudden reversals!
  •  Finally, on the 1H chart you can see the current top, spike down and relief rally.  Just as with Gold this move broke out of a short term expanding channel initially and retraced back up to the Fib 88%.  Unlike Gold, Silver gave us a nice channel encompassing the relief rally and we saw a breakout and failed retest of the breakout zone before price dropped away.  Both the green 1 and brown B/2 were on NMD on the 1H.

Alas price did not hammer down at the end of the week, which would have been ideal, but did nudge down in the final few hours of trading, which can be indicative at key turning points.  Stocks hit a consolidation phase at the end of the week too so early next week I would need to see stock resume a strong rally, possible after a brief bearish move, possible not (could even see a gap up open on Sunday).  If we get this then Gold/Silver could see a mirror image fast drop and it will be crucial to see a lower low to reverse the medium term up trend.  Once this happens the retrace is on and it remains only to target the turn back up.

XAGUSD-Monthly_170819.thumb.png.7b75dc9d29666e455c5babe81b9c11ce.pngXAGUSD-Weekly_170819.thumb.png.eeed2448615afd46021bb6211d3d64c1.pngXAGUSD-Daily_170819.thumb.png.498e92c95b73e0c368e5fe34ce2f7f45.pngXAGUSD-1-hour_170819.thumb.png.72bb016c4f30456928014132c4ac5f47.png

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