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Gold & Silver in a LT rally

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"....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet"

Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order:

Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably). 

If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump!

"....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero"

Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord.

Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist. 

Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress....

However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options:

1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game.

2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely.

3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option.

You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently.

That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is).

Nice sharing these thoughts with you>

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Nice reasoning and logic to that @ChrisN, I have no argument with any of what you suggest and agree the options.

I do wonder though if scenario 3 is likely to actually become manifest.  That is clearly what the powers that be are trying to get to.  Scenario 2 is impossible in a world where populations are slowly decreasing as birth rates tip over and begin to drop (maybe there is hope for the planet after all!) although either of the Malthusian economic constraints may yet come into play so a catastrophic collapse is still very much possible, be it via an actual war as in your extrapolation (hope not) or "just" a financial meltdown.  Given the choice I'd rather the latter financial Armageddon rather then the physical kind... 

If Japan is the dress rehearsal that does not bode well as nothing Japan tried got them out of the stagnation they have been in for decades.  I think that they have been saved from a total meltdown only because the rest of the world, their customers, did not follow suit (yet!).  What happens when they do?  Surely Japan then does meltdown?

So net I think all the efforts of all the central banks and their political masters has not achieved the desired effect.  Eventually the other shoe drops and so I think scenario 1 or a version of it is the inevitable, logical conclusion.  I don't think it will be a default like Argentina/Zimbabwe because they were isolated cases.  I think it is much more likely that governments effectively nationalise the economy by effecting bail ins (a la Cyprus); currency access restrictions (a la Greece and Cyprus); and debt write offs (i.e. debt holders take a massive hair cut).  In fact under these circumstances bond holders and cash holders will all get hit.  The only area that then works is the aged old store of value, precious metals (and land I guess but I suspect that land owners will be at the beck and call of the government as well to ensure food production).  Note this has happened before.  In the US during the Great Depression the US government actually went to the extreme of making it illegal to privately own gold, it only became legal again in the 1970s.  That is one reason that holding gold overseas is something that US investors actively seek.  Holding some actual physical gold, or better yet silver as it is more usable in a crisis, is clearly a way to go under such a scenario.

Hopefully the extreme scenarios do not come to pass but I feel that some version of this is required to reset the system and prepare for the next evolution, which will be all about technology.  In any scenario I see Gold/Silver as being the asset of choice.  Holding paper versions may not be so smart in the worst cases.  Forget about bitcoin and their ilk, they will get wiped out and will not realise their true potential until the next evolution.  They will still be controlled by governments, unless anyone thinks there will be no governments...  Talk about science fiction!

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On 18/08/2019 at 11:02, Mercury said:

If Japan is the dress rehearsal that does not bode well as nothing Japan tried got them out of the stagnation they have been in for decades.  I think that they have been saved from a total meltdown only because the rest of the world, their customers, did not follow suit (yet!).  What happens when they do?  Surely Japan then does meltdown?

Meltdown? Some context required. End of 1989 Nikkei stood about 39000. Within 9 months that had halved. Over the next 22 years it halved again. At the low, financial district property worth 1% (one percent!), residential 10% of peak prices. However you look at it I reckon that was a meltdown!

Still if you blow a bubble .....it will pop in your eye. They entered a deflationary period 20+ years ahead of the rest. The consequences are daunting. Poor demographics often quoted but not 30 years ago it wasn't. Overall I'm sure the Plaza Accord and the subsequent currency adjustments had a big impact. Resets......reset everything.

The Brexit/EU nonsense rolls on but I'm disappointed that the UK media have not picked up on the impending next European banking crisis. The EuroStoxx Banking Index is on a precipice. Levels last seen in late 80s, during the GFC and the last Greek/Cyprus debacle  the outcome of which was the current "bail in" process you mentioned. Italy is seriously trying to issue min BOTs (because it can't afford to repay in Euros) to meet its future obligations. that's the third biggest economy in EU. France now well above accepted deficit levels and Germany probably in a recession. Show me the door.......

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On 17/08/2019 at 17:04, ChrisN said:

Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein

 

I thought that the 'modern' monetary policy was introduced by Reagan, with massive government spending (on military and corporate subsidies/tax breaks) and easy money for Wall Street.  Coincidentally a lot of the supporters of Reaganomics are ex-Trotskyites and radicals.  Maybe they know how destructive all of this really is and are still plotting the downfall of capitalism?  The 'deep state'?

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That is true @ChrisN, although when I was in Japan a while ago I saw clearly well educated older people working government created jobs and stayed in a place run by a lady who was clearly working hard to make ends meet but nevertheless the standard of living generally in Japan was high relatively speaking.  Their companies continued to do ok because their customer base was still sound.  I guess my point is how much worse would it be when their customer base erodes heavily due to a global shock?

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I thought that the 'modern' monetary policy was introduced by Reagan

My understanding (simplistic view) runs like this.....

If we expanded the Fed balance sheet from $800 billion  to 4.3 trillion (with phoney money) and didn't get any inflation then whose worried about deficits? Spend, spend, spend. $1 trillion next year. That's what I meant ...a socialist's (Democrat) dream! As I said...it doesn't matter........until it does!

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1 hour ago, Mercury said:

That is true @ChrisN, although when I was in Japan a while ago I saw clearly well educated older people working government created jobs and stayed in a place run by a lady who was clearly working hard to make ends meet but nevertheless the standard of living generally in Japan was high relatively speaking.  Their companies continued to do ok because their customer base was still sound.  I guess my point is how much worse would it be when their customer base erodes heavily due to a global shock?

Thanks @Mercury for the personal experience. For a country of about 125 million and only recently relegated to 3rd largest economy it is indeed amazing that they have continued to enjoy such a high standard of living. Stoicism I guess....and one where you have to work well into western standard retirement age. Consequences of all that debt 30 years ago? or a dwindling youth (with no active immigration policy)? Probably both....plus massive, massive central bank intervention. I still believe they are the canary in the mine. If you're not yet retired....you probably never will! (Tongue -in-cheek).

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37 minutes ago, ChrisN said:

My understanding (simplistic view) runs like this.....

If we expanded the Fed balance sheet from $800 billion  to 4.3 trillion (with phoney money) and didn't get any inflation then whose worried about deficits? Spend, spend, spend. $1 trillion next year. That's what I meant ...a socialist's (Democrat) dream! As I said...it doesn't matter........until it does!

 

'Spend spend spend' - isn't that what the U.S. is already doing?  Except that it all goes on the military and Wall Street.  Why is it only inflationary if it gets spent on social policies?  (Asking because I'm curious.)

Opponents of government spending always ask where the money comes from, but we all know that money gets created out of nothing every day by central banks and forex trading institutions.  It only becomes a problem when any significant amount of that money gets translated into higher wages.  Very interesting.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Why is it only inflationary if it gets spent on social policies? 

Ah! The $64 million (billion, trillion) question! Where's the inflation? I'm afraid I can only offer my own thoughts on that....there are far better qualified people to be had elsewhere. Here are my personal thoughts/threads however.. QE was used (expanded the Fed balance sheet) to purchase US Treasury debt. Elsewhere same reason. It was intended that it would be rolled over as it matured and sold back to the market. Now there's doubt about that or at least some of it. It could just disappear. You're effectively buying your own debt...nice game, nice game....and if you can do that (with one hand on the money press) then you want it as cheaply as possible. If you're effectively the only buyer, you own the market and that itself drives yields lower. Wash,rinse,spin. Throw in some safe haven moments and you get to where we are today. Throughout the whole of the experiment, and that's what it is because no-one knows how this ends (although I expect badly) it became clear that the elites are getting richer...they were the ones with the assets after all. For assets include everything...stocks, property, antiques, paintings, wine etc. Everything Trump has in other words!. Their pay (board level) also got a huge boost in my opinion from performance related share prices due to unprecedented share buy backs - this is on going because credit has never been so cheap. Your pay almost certainly didn't increase. In fact in real terms it went backwards. Lots of studies support that thesis both in US/UK/Europe. The policy is now driving rates well below zero. Just when you thought rates can only go up from here (2016 low) they actually went lower and bonds were and still are the place to be! Wish I had bought Reagan's long term debt. I think this will continue and it links in with my thoughts about Japan the past two decades. Keeping rates below inflation (and they all do) effectively forces you to do your consumer bit and that was the justification/hope/smoke screen, take your pick!. We'll grow our way out of it - scenario 2 a few posts back. The wealth divide is a real concern now and they know it. In consumer led economies, if the consumer had access to that increased money supply and provides it with some velocity (i.e. gets it moving around the economy) THEN you get inflation. You don't have access to it.........yet. Assets are being held up by funny money. Any whiff the central banks (i.e who now ARE the market) will dial back causes immediate stock market roll overs. Draw your own conclusions.

The other thought is simply this. Think of deflation as air leaving your tyre. You're pumping like mad to get it back in but however hard you try the tyre is getting flatter! The hole's too big. Deflation wins.....or if you manage to stabilise the pressure then stagnant growth at best. Possibly stagflation 70s style. Get the plaster on and whey, hey! Hyperinflation here we come. Hold gold.

Just my penny worth!...and apologies for the length.

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Or maybe not @TheGuru12, On Silver price is knocking on the door of a breakout of a daily channel, could yet bounce of this but why wait until it has resolved before posting?  I am bearish biased as I expect to see a retrace before a big Gold move and the situation does not seem to be set for that yet from a fundamentals perspective.  We either need a meltdown or massive CB stimulus and FX wars.

Technicals are the same as before but added to this is a 1H chart 1-2 retrace to the Fib 62% on NMD.  Similar, perhaos even better, set up on Gold.

XAGUSD-Daily_220819.thumb.png.ab695e9b93caf59046e87b7febb884ee.pngXAGUSD-1-hour_220819.thumb.png.ee99f8a1759b1660b3bbb60e48a2f9b0.png

 

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Gold and Silver looked to be running away with themselves in a bullish surge yesterday but as stocks picked up momentum the other way and the USD also did the same the precious metals suddenly got an attach of the jitters and couldn't manage a breakout.  This seems important to me and if next week does reveal a stocks rally perhaps we have seen Gold/Silver top out for now with another failed assault on key resistance.  Late price action was bearish on Friday.

Remains to be seen and of course no once can rule out a breakout next week, which would be a Long trading event in my opinion but I am minded to expect a pull back from these levels and a significant retrace to prime the pump for a later surge and breakout.  On Gold the obvious retrace end would be a failed test of the long term neckline (circa 1360), a recognised important level in the past by professional traders and money managers.

So what I am looking for and trading next week is as follows:

  1. Continued USD bearishness, probably after a bit of a relief rally but I wouldn't expect much - I am long currency pairs against the USD
  2. Stock indices bullishness to complete a wave B and turn into a strong wave C but watch that whip saw price action medium term
  3. Gold and Silver to go bearish for a time

Let's see, could be an exciting and profitable week/month if my USD turn has finally arrived.

Have a great long weekend those of you who are on it.

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On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 15:44, elle said:

Gold chart - I trust you can see what's happened - for this to continue it must hold above the last break out imo

Capture gold.PNG

 

Capture gold.PNG

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On 24/08/2019 at 15:12, Mercury said:

watch that whip saw price action

Better still, don't trade the indices at all.

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That is a reasonable strategy right now @dmedin but if it is right for stocks indices then generally it is also right for individual stocks...  The uncertainty that abounds right now should at least warrant caution, in all assets frankly.  Until things resolve more generally there are no one way bets.

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Where were all the gold experts on the 30th May?

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On 25/10/2018 at 02:50, Mercury said:

Gold rally phase looks strong, although it has been in consolidation during the recent stocks bear moves, not dissimilar to USD.  Makes me think Gold is not yet acting as a safe haven store of value yet.  I suspect the next move will come thanks to USD price action rather than stocks but regardless of why I still see a strong Bullish set up, albeit short term there may be more consolidation.  Having had a breakout and retest of a potential small scale flag formation (these are relatively weak signals being on short term time horizons) I am looking for a stronger break through of overhead resistance levels to trigger any additions to my Long positions.  Caution is required during any consolidation period as whiplash price action can cause death by 1000 cuts.  However there is good potential here if we can tap it.  The Daily chart medium term prognosis is speculative at this point and therefore only a road map guide but a strong breakout would get this market on the road and then constant revaluation will help manage any trades in play.  Silver set up seems even more Bullish to me.

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Not that I am an expert on Gold @dmedin, I am not, but I have been calling this rally since before the above post.  This was when to go Long.  Now there is a tricky choice between buy the dips and wait for a significant pull back (this is more than a dip).  I am in the latter camp.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Not that I am an expert on Gold @dmedin, I am not, but I have been calling this rally since before the above post.  This was when to go Long.  Now there is a tricky choice between buy the dips and wait for a significant pull back (this is more than a dip).  I am in the latter camp.

 

I wasn't aiming that you @Mercury :)

 

Edited by dmedin

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Didn't feel you were @dmedin, just pointing out that these calls are often all there in the threads, just maybe requires a bit of work to get into the back threads.  

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Posted (edited)

On the subject of 'missing the boat' big time ... if that's not a third wave then I'm a monkey's uncle.  🙈

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Edited by dmedin

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Buy and hold the huge bull breakout in July ... I see no other winning strategy.

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You might be a monkey's uncle @dmedin, or at least it depends whether you are saying the move since 30 May is a wave 3 in and of itself or just the first leg (wave 1) or a larger wave 3 (BTW, I think you meant to say the strategy was to buy and hold the June breakout right?).

Personally I see it as a wave 1 of wave 3 so we should see a wave 2 retrace before things really get going and that retrace bearish move will surprise and knock the confidence of the bulls, probably stopping them out of positions they had locked in as big winners.  This is how sentiment changes and big moves are set up.  FWIW, COT data is the most bullish since before 2007 (I don't have prior data so it might be the most bullish ever, it is more bullish than at any time during the massive rally up to 2011!).  I think that is too bullish to be sustained at this juncture.  

As it happens buying the triangle breakout on May 30 was right and holding there will probably be alright, unless the alternate deflationary Bear scenario holds true.  Some people view the current move as a wave B that sets up a further drop as deflation hits across the board.  Personally I don't buy that one, not yet at least, although I can see it on the technicals.  Personally I see Gold and Silver as a safe haven store of value when things start to get really ugly, its just that we are not there yet so I can't see a justification for this particular bullish move being the "big one".  If stocks and bonds crater in the coming weeks then gold and silver are likely to rally hard.  Does anyone who is buying into precious metals rip see the corresponding collapse elsewhere?  Some people do thing the ATHs on US large caps as the top but even then it takes time for a collapse to happen.  Perhaps rumours of the demise of the aged bulls are exaggerated, at this moment at least.

And this is all the more relevant if you look at the price charts.  Last week produced the first real bearish candle since that May 30 breakout.  This occurred at a zone of considerable long term resistance, although the wave B proponents see 1590-1600 as the target level, this would be the Fib 62% off the 2011 ATH.  Additionally, on the Daily chart, there is a potential pennant off the Triangle low prior to the May 30 breakout, which hit 2X the pennant mid point (1555) at this weeks high.  And at the end of last week Gold poked through a potential ending Triangle and stayed below.  If this breakout holds early next week then we could have seen that wave 1 of 3 turn I was referring to.

The pre May 30 Triangle retrace is a bit of a problem for me.  If it is a 1-2 then the subsequent rally is a wave 3 and the next move will be a 4 and then a 5 and then a larger 1-2.  That's all a bit complicated, although it might fit well with the whip saw price action we are seeing on stocks.  If the Triangle is not a 1-2, but just forms part of the whole single rally wave from July 2018 (ah! is that the July you meant? @dmedin) then the next bearish move would be a 1-2 retrace that would most likely test the H&S neckline and Fib 50% at 1350 (confluence of both these thing is like a magnet for price in my opinion).  There is pretty solid NMD on the Daily chart at last weeks top.

Summary:

  1. I think we have seen an end to the current rally but we may see a small retrace down now and another leg up for a slightly later "real" top out
  2. Either way we should see a strong retrace (now or after another leg up) to retest the 1350 support zone before the mega rally gets going in conjunction with other market disruption moves
  3. There is an outside chance that precious metals are only in a retrace and that a further bearish lower low than 2015 is slated but I don't give this one a high probability at present.

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Silver should also be considers in assessing what is happening with Gold right now.  These markets are in a similar pattern but Silver dropped lower to the 2015 lows and has been more reluctant to breakout in the recent rally.  I think the technicals on Silver are more straight forward than on Gold, cleaner, easier to read, and that is one reason I prefer it as both an analytical and trading vehicle.

The big picture is very similar to Gold, except that Silver retraced all the way to the Fib76/78% zone in 2015 where as Gold only made it to the Fib 50%.  This alone is one reason I don't buy the wave B scenario on Gold.  On the daily chart I have a decent channel that provided the resistance for the top out last week (if it was a top and doesn't require another touch...).  The NMD is there on the daily but marginal, it is clearer on the 1H chart.  I like the 1-2 labeling for the Triangle (similar to Golds Triangle that I am more equivocal about - see previous post) and therefore a marginal NMD at an intermediate wave 1 if fine.  Still we could see a fairly strong retrace here.

On the 1H chart there are several potential ending channels within the wider daily channel.  The first has been broken and the second survived a test on Friday but if this is broken early next week then a test of the lower daily channel line is on the cards, and this would result in a clear break of the equivalent channel on Gold.  There is an unclosed gap in Silver around about the lower channel line test point - I expect the gap to be closed and the channel to be broken.  If this all plays out then it just remains to be seen how far the retrace will carry. 

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Possible turn in Gold and Silver in the making.  Gold has hit a lower channel line off NMD at the turn.  Looks like a clean wave 1 or a larger rally to come but, if the break is confirmed, we should see that retrace I have been talking about.  For swing traders this is about Shorting the move, but watch out for the wave B.  For trend followers you might want to check your stops and prepare to buy the eventual dip.

There was a Pennant that marked almost exactly the half way point on this wave and gave be a great hint at the potential top where we got it (if confirmed).  I am targeting a large retrace, maybe back to the original neckline breakout at circa (1350).  However we may only see a consolidation phase, in which case buying the breakout Long on that would be the play.

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Similar set up on Silver, no surprise there.  We had a small overshoot on the upper daily channel line and sharp turn back today, very bearish candle so far (day is not yet over of course).  Decent 1-5 EWT count but no NMD this time, not unusual with sharp rallies in Silver as it happens.  There is NMD on the 1H chart though and now price is approach a short term lower channel line with the daily channel line still some way below.  I would be looking for a retrace of similar proportions to Gold at this point with an initial target of the Fib 50% coinciding with the parallel channel lower line, subject to price action as Silver can run harder than Gold.

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There she goes, falling faster than bird droppings from on high!

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@Mercury  Do you think gold will fall as far as 1350?  I thought I would be lucky to buy in at 1380, but then again I am a stupid idiot.

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Well I for one would not describe you, or anyone, as an idiot for not knowing where a market will turn @dmedin.  The best I can do is set out my road maps and follow the price action for clues and trading triggers as it progresses.  I guess this is why they call it price discovery.  The reason why I use a road map, based on technical analysis rather than fundamentals (which I do use for the big picture assessment), is to give me a frame of reference against which to assess that price action.  I found in the past that if I do not have this then I get sucked into individual candle moves out of any context (emotional trading) or get sucked into short termism (day trading, which doesn't work for me).

So to the question in hand, assuming we do have a confirmed bearish turn, which is looking likely now, the chief reasons for me selecting 1350 as my target are as follows:

  1. It is on the Fib 50%, a very common retrace level generally, and especially on Gold in my experience.
  2. It would result in a retest of the neckline of a long term Head & Shoulders formation.  It is quite common for a breakout of such a neckline to receive at least 1 retest that on a failure would spark a massive rally (note it doesn't HAVE to get a retest and certainly the strength of the rally might suggest it will not get retested but a 50% retrace is common so...).
  3. It is also coincidental with a zone of long term horizontal support.  This zone runs from about 1380 (so 1380 is a credible turning point too)to about 1340.  Anything lower and we are I would flip to the Fib 62% zone and soon thereafter might be looking at longer term bearish scenarios.

You also have to watch Silver for correlations. Typically I would be looking for solid turning zones on both.  If we hit 1380 on Gold and Silver is not also at a solid turning point then I would have low confidence in 1380, although it will very likely throw up short term support, which could draw some traders into early Longs.  Silver has a price gap that must be closed, unless it is a breakaway gap and I don't think so.  This gap lies at the Fib 38% level.  So we could actually see a turn here that would also result in an earlier turn on Gold.  However the equivalent Silver LT support zone lies around the Fib 62% level and this makes sense as Silver typically amplifies Golds moves.

In addition to all this, to have a credible retrace, we need to see an A-B-C wave form.  If we hit the Fib 38s without this form I would be seeing it as a wave A.  This means the Wave C would be lower and therefore the Fib 50% would be in play.

So there are several potential road maps and A-B-Cs come in many forms so it is impossible to say where this will turn.  As said my approach is to map out the various possibilities and follow price action for clues.  Time and patience are the key here but it is noteworthy that you don't have to catch the turn itself, just identify when the trend changes back to bullish.  If/when it does the next wave 3 will be massive.  Note also that there are long term bearish scenarios being touted out there so nothing is certain in trading, as in life I guess.  It is all about probability and money management.  For me, respectful discussion help to assess these probabilities, especially with people who use different methods.  Alas we don't seem to get enough of that on this and other forums where people seem to want to win an argument...  So feel free to chip in, frankly your guess is as good as mine, or anyone else's.

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Hi all,

Nice to see something other than "Chart is frozen" and "Help, how can I get my money back!" :)

This is what I think about Spot Gold, I could be wrong though, just offering an alternative view.

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    AnnaZ
    Joined 22/09/19 04:43
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    • How do I switch my account from CFD trading to share trading?
    • That USDJPY turn looks to be confirmed with a break of a potential ending channel in confluence with the Fib 50% and failed retest of the previous Pennant formation.  A solid bearish move on the last two daily candles of the week in line with a late stocks drop is boding well for a sustained medium term bearish phase for this pair.  This may be at odds with other pairs for a few days or so but I expect USD to turn bearish sometime next week, in which case I see this pair dropping hard, which would be in line with the EWT set up of a wave 3 down.  A continued period of stocks weakness would add to the momentum on this pair.
    • Looks like we are getting that relief rallyvon Gold and Silver, which is in line with my A-B-C retrace bearish move road map.  If this continues according to the road map then the current rally is a wave B.  When it concludes there will be a strong wave C down and this is the point to Short if the mood take you.  This is coinciding with both a short term rally on USD (DX) and a late bearish move on stock indices on Friday.  I expect the bearish stocks move to continue for a bit, especially on non US large caps to complete their wave Bs.  We may see a correlation conclusion of these wave Bs between stocks and precious metals.  I also think USD DX will rally a bit further, with GBPUSD in particular putting in a strongish bear move in a 1-2 retrace.  All the main USD pairs except with the Yen are likely to be bearish vs USD.  
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