Jump to content

GBPUSD retrace trade

Recommended Posts

Trading is a frustrating enterprise @MYK1, as many people point out, losses are part of it.  If you have good stop placement and you get taken out then this ought to have been a loss you were willing to bear (i.e. doesn't kill your account).  It also means you can start fresh.  In the case of GBPUSD the red line is around 12430.  Below that a new set up must be sought (either a new wave 1 bottom or the beginning of a big drop (which ought to be mirrored in other pairs like EUR and AUD with a big rally in USD).  Note, in my book it is perfectly feasible for GBP to put in a new wave 1 (and/or double bottom) and then rally but I would not hold a Long below the red line; I would wait for a new set of signals.

Just for info, I did take a Long back at the breakout of the 1H channel, with a stop just below the red line, which I am still holding for a minimal loss if taken out.  I did not add any further positions as I was expecting a pull back (EWT technique), and recent history suggested it would be a strong one (it clearly is, or will break lower...).  That leaves me in a Long already so I will not think about trading another Long until I see a credible turn.

As I noted on my EURUSD thread, there is a lower low (for a lower wave B) scenario there too, which must be watched as this is the main USD mirror.  In addition, EURGBP has now put in a higher high and is approaching the long term overhead resistance trend line so ideally we need to see that turn for my lead GBP scenario to bear fruit.  I will post on my Triad thread in due course.

Net then I would not be going Long on GBPUSD until I saw a turn on price action, that ideally was backed up by other pairs (especially EURGBP, which means EUR could go lower while GBP rallies).  Any Long should have a stop just below the red line (12430) as you don't want to carry the position into white space.  It is all about minimising exposure and money management really.

Share this post


Link to post
On ‎09‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 09:10, elle said:

getting close

Capture gu2.PNG

done

Capture gu.PNG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Next Elle owe us Champagne 😁 As she is the only winner and we all losers  lol

Share this post


Link to post

IF EURUSD is turning then could GBPUSD turn as well?  A lower low yesterday is intuitively suggestive of a break lower but often this is a Bear trap situation, and the Bears certainly gathered their strength to push lower yesterday.  However the Daily chart shows a potential ending narrowing channel, which if valid has stopped the price action.  Also price is currently in a long term support zone (check your weekly chart on this).  In the rally scenario we could see a few tests of this level before any breakout either way but if EURUSD does rally and if AUDUSD continues to show strength and if USDCAD continued to go Bearish and if bearish signals on USDJPY prove valid then I can't see GBP bucking the trend.  I am looking forward to the COT data, which has been trending steadily net negative on the Non Comms side.  I am betting we will see a very negative read from yesterday, which could spell an contrarian buy trigger.  EWT count is good for a wave 1 and there is lots of PMD on all charts.

GBPUSD-Daily_170719.thumb.png.5e13bf8bbf23b3a205ec7ad6a4b3a918.pngGBPUSD-1-hour_170719.thumb.png.472f57de37426b718d7c86acd24e233c.png 

 

Share this post


Link to post

The GBP retrace that never happened ... lol

Share this post


Link to post

So far the wave 1 (Blue) has held as a potential turn and now I have a 1-5 rally followed by a deep retrace to the Fib76/78% and today a breakout of a short term channel on that retrace.  Clearly a break through overhead resistance of the daily chart channel line and horizontal resistance level will be important to confirm this as a sustainable rally scenario.  With USD possible at a bearish inflection point (see also EURUSD, which is lagging GBP - hence my EURGBP shorts are working well).  If all of this plays out then the rally is on.  Let's see...

GBPUSD-1-hour_240719.thumb.png.c8214718704d0345595c63aa0c2a2631.png

Share this post


Link to post

This is the chart set for GBPUSD as related to the EURUSD ones posted separately.  There is a striking similarity between them on the Weekly Chart, despite recent GBP relative weakness.  Perhaps this is unsurprising given a period of relative GBP strength prior this.  As with EUR and USD-DX this pair is at an important Support/Resistance level.  While another leg down to the next level resistance cannot be ruled out this market appears to be at a more extreme edge that EUR.  If you add the Bollinger band on the weekly chart you will see that the previous 2 times the market spiked down through the lower band line to touch the channel line but closed on or inside the band.  The market has currently done that again, will it close back within the band again?  If it does a rally is likely to be on.  There is not PMD on the Weekly here but crucially there is on the Daily and Hourly.  This one is a more extreme trade but I have gone long off the touch and rejection of the Weekly line with close stops below.

GBPUSD-Weekly_300719.thumb.png.beb4e1e1bc201e45d0bacf3fd0aa3b74.pngGBPUSD-Daily_300719.thumb.png.d6dcbe1adfa531e01ad6ebb1d78f4cae.pngGBPUSD-1-hour_300719.thumb.png.057b663cdb6ea9cdb947aaad43531431.png

Share this post


Link to post

GBP has been idling for some time, not joining other pairs on respective short term moves.  With a slew of UK data coming out at 09.30 maybe this will trigger a breakout.

This market is fairy straight forward right now in that it either breaks through support into a new bearish phase (re-evaluation time for me) or rally hard out of this support zone.  I am leaning to the latter, especially if EUR also rallies out of its consolidation phase.

GBPUSD-4-hours_090819.thumb.png.df7a646b95b2bdb65b3f1b4a008cc9d2.png

Share this post


Link to post

Strong bullish move in the past few hours on GBPUSD, less so on EURUSD but it is there too, despite the Italian PM resignation, so much for the news (maybe bad news is good news for FX as well as stocks...

Anyway, regardless of the whys and wherefores, the price action looks like a retrace to the Fib 62% (in A-B-C form) after a decent rally away from support on PMD for a potential wave 1 (blue) turn.  Will need to see a break of overhead resistance and of the daily chart upper channel line to get serious but for now I am happily Long off the fib 62% turn.

GBPUSD-4-hours_200819.thumb.png.aa4b5a54f5d9970eea3fb48ce04850ba.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×