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GBP/AUD Brexit Bear?


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Here is one that may cheer the Brexit Bears out there, I think this pair is showing very Bearish in the long term.

Looking at the Monthly chart ( I wish I had more data further back on this one!) it seems like a long term decline, not surprising given that Australia missed out on the Credit crunch recession and have had a euphoric domestic housing market bull run.  AUDUSD has been in decline since mid 2011, coincident with the commodities peak and drop (a major impacting factor not to be overlooked - i.e. you have to analyse commodities for anything to do with AUD even if you don't want to trade commodities!  Markets are connected).  On GBP/AUD there has been a steady decline to Q1 2013 then a sharp rally and equally share counter rally ending in the GBP flash crash with a double bottom.  At face value this looks like the beginning of a strong rally in GBP/AUD, and this is a possible scenario.  A double bottom and jump away in such a strong fashion is Bullish in nature.

Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see the W1 [purple] top and double bottom pin bar spike up on GBP flash crash but what is interesting is that all of the price action since then has been contained in a large Triangle (which could be a massive Pennant - Bearish!).  If it is a Pennant and the Pennant occurs at halfway on the motive wave then this pair could drop as low a 10,000 area (theoretical at present).  This Triangle has had a breakout of late and a failed retest and is now moving back down.  Zooming in on the Weekly chart (Version A) I can see a Classic Head & Shoulders formation (blue circles) and neckline break and retest (at the top of the Triangle), again very Bearish.  Note also a significant negative momentum divergence on the Weekly chart at the top of the Pennant (at pink 1) 

Now let's look at the Daily chart.  We can see the underside of the Large scale Triangle (purple line) and a Retrace Triangle (blue lines) both of which have had breakouts to the Bearish side.  Note a momentum divergence at the failed retest of the Large Pennant.  The price action is following a 1-2 series of retraces ever diminishing and if concluded to the downside will culminate if a strong bearish move.  Not also yet another H&S formation with a neckline down around the 17,300 mark.

Looking at the Hourly chart I we can see that set of 1-2 retraces I was mentioned above.  There was, and perhaps still is a chance the retrace will carry back to the 18,300 mark but the pin bar earlier today and fast move down from there is Bearish.  A break of the recent support around 17,950 would confirm my analysis for me, although a retrace back to that support/resistance zone post breakout cannot be ruled out.

Long term scenarios:

Looking back at the Monthly Chart I can see 2 scenarios that could play out as follows:

  1. The double bottom marks the lower point and the current bearish move is a retrace (pink 1-2) that will conclude and rally around the 16,000 area.  For this to happen though AUD needs to fall a lot more slowly vs USD than GBP and every other currency probably and more likely even rally.  I wonder what could support such a scenario...?
  2. The 16,000 mark is broken through and this pair carries our down to wherever!

Note in either scenario there should be a move down to the 16,000 mark!  Unless I am completely wrong and GBP catches a massive bid while AUD languishes...

 

GBPAUD-Monthly_011018.png

GBPAUD-Weekly011018.png

GBPAUD-Weekly011018_A.png

GBPAUD-Daily011018.png

GBPAUD-1-hour011018.png

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