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Crude Oil (WTI)

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@Mercury,

I think you take any challenges to your posts personally and find it difficult to accept any form of critique and then lash out like this. I am not blaming your posts per se. I am blaming myself for getting slightly influenced by them. That is an error in judgement from me and I can only blame myself for that. You are entitled to post as you wish. I am not blaming you but myself. I am honestly admitting (which very few do on here) that I was slightly influenced by your posts. It is not a crime for being honest. Your reaction tends to be to 'lash out'. 

I do not know why you think I am 'technical analysis bashing'. I give up on that argument as you strongly believe I am against technical analysis when I use several forms of it myself which my threads and posts clearly demonstrate. You may use more complex technical analysis where as I keep things simple. That is our personal choice. My trading strategy does not require any complex analysis like yours. It may be crucial to your trading strategy.

In terms of stating that I do not sufficiently know about technical analysis is insulting. There is no need for that type of behaviour. You tend to revert to this behaviour when ever anyone challenges any of your posts or analysis. One must learn to accept critique. You revert to insults when you know nothing about me or my background. Then you accuse me of trolling behaviour. Again another insult when there is absolutely no need for.

I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year @Mercury.

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@TrendFollower, Why don't you make yourself a nice cup of "macha tea" and reread all of your posts in response to mine, "with an open mind" over the Christmas break and try to see why I might be fed up with your technical bashing.  You will see that far from a critique of a trade idea it is a constant and unrelenting diatribe on why using technical analysis is BS (or perhaps more correctly why the way I use it is, which is worse).

I never asked for a critique of my method.  I do not criticise yours, in fact I too am a trend follower, anyone who isn't is crazy.  I asked for opinions on the trade ideas I offer up but I don't get much of that.  When I offer an opinion on something like Bitcoin (a perfectly credible opinion I might add) your head almost explodes in your response, just because you don't want to believe I could be right - now who isn't accepting a critique? (and I'm not even criticing your position, just offering an alternative opinion.

I don't need nor want a critique of how I came to my views on a set up, rather I ask whether others agree or disagree based on their own methods.  The reason for this is that if there is disagreement that may be pause for thought and if there is agreement then the idea is likely to be stronger.

I am all to happy to have meaningful exchanges on pros and cons of anything to do with trading in the trading strategy section of the forum but I am not interested in the kind of discussion that seeks to minimise what others are doing, successfully I might add, as the Stocks play clearly demonstrates.

Post on these forums are a gift and they should be treated as such.  Perhaps the reason we don't have more people posting is because they don't want to expose themselves to such "critique" as you offer.

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@Mercury,

First of all, I see you have very little Christmas spirit. I wished you and your family a very merry Christmas and a very happy new year. You did not do so the same which is a shame. At the end of the day one must not fall out over different views. Though there are things I disagree about your posts and at times do not understand them it does not mean that I must be rude to you or not be polite to you. One must be professional and act with integrity. 

By the way it is spelt "Matcha" and not "Macha". Am I ok in correcting you? LOL. 😂 Actually that is very weird as I am an avid Matcha Tea drinker. I drink it daily in the mornings. I only drink 'Organic Ceremonial Grade' Matcha tea. I try and prepare it the Japanese way using a Chawan, Bamboo whisk and around 70 degrees water. You should try it if you do not already drink it. It helps to clear your mind before the start of a trading day. If you do drink then I can recommend some very high quality ones.

Anyway this is a Crude Oil (WTI) thread so let us not diverse. Those who shorted either Brent or WTI well done. I would suggest keeping the short open and not to sell too early. Let your winners run. I am not short Oil but am happy for anyone who did short it and happy for those who have made large profits on this trade. I agree with @Caseynotes that this will continue to go down until there is a reason for it not to go down anymore. None of us can predict what the bottom will be here but it is a fascinating example of an excellent and strong short trade. The mere fact that I did not trade it shows a 'flaw' in my own trading system. I should have identified and shorted this. This is a missed opportunity for me and therefore I cannot say that I have a strong 'edge' because of this. 

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Oh dear @Mercury, what patronising hypocritical nonsense, you are always the first to jump in and stamp on everyone's posts, always have done, and with the hint you are actually doing them a favour and educating the poor sole. But in fact your knowledge of technical analysis is actually very confined, just layered on extremely thick. This doesn't make it more valid than anyone else's or even lead to views that carry more weight than someone who doesn't use TA at all.

Twice in this thread you have accused people of just arguing for the need to be right but it is always with you, doesn't that tell you anything.

 

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Yes it tells me that anyone who posts in opposition to you or Trendfollower is likely to get harangued.  You haven't changed in the years I have been away.  It tells me I should simply not react.  So I wont henceforth.

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The one thing to be careful about during the Christmas holiday is the 'lower than usual' trading volume which may create amplified price swings and increase volatility during this festive break. 

I see $42.60 being taken out on WTI. Let's see if it hits this. Also the markets love round numbers so I would not be surprise if the move continued to pass $40.00. There is a short term trading opportunity but the risk/reward does not suit my personality at this stage as I prefer longer trends than what is potentially on offer.

I have missed the boat on this and that will be one of my failures of 2018. Thankfully, I have many successes but this is def. a failure on my part for not taking the opportunity to short Oil.

Does anyone think WTI Crude will go all the way down to around the $30.00 area?

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US oil back in congestion zone suggesting sideways price action for the near term. 

image.thumb.png.540cd9aab422be515f6813d19f7c91d4.png

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@elle, in agreement. Noticed your fibs are starting to turn Quantile (25%, 50%, 75%) new direction or just experimentation? As you point out the 50 looks significant.

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@Caseynotes I do like to look at 0 -50-100 % levels , they work so well on a lot of things. The 50% level can sometimes be identified as a "swap zone" where buyers & sellers battle for control ( can be seen by when price moves strongly in one direction , stops and reverses a bit before resuming the original trend) . Here's a BIG picture of crude oil showing some historic price zones

Capture cl.PNG

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to me this looks like we are looking at resistance on the 15 min and a possible trade as someone noted above with reverse head and shoulders on the daily.

2061399252_2019-01-3011_24_30-IGTradingPlatform_SpreadBetting.thumb.png.c4fe455f70be92334d75245bd205fe4e.png

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Oil got a bit of a boost today with US imposing new sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Oil got a bit of a boost today with US imposing new sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry.

that was yesterday no? It seems to be a very delayed reaction.

I'd like to be seeing 58.50 in short mid term.

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Trump was tweeting about it when he got up today and seemed to give it an extra push though the Venezuelan oil industry has been so run down over the years I wondered if it really mattered to world production. I saw some figures go through a few days back, I'll see if I can find them.

If WTI can clear this resistance 58 is definitely on the cards. 

157344694_USOIL()Daily.thumb.png.5914f9a78be550a78df072241799cdc4.png

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strong day for oil at the moment from reuters

"OPEC said on Tuesday it had cut oil production steeply under a global supply deal, although it flagged headwinds confronting its efforts to prevent a glut this year including weaker demand and higher rival output.

In a monthly report, OPEC said its oil output fell almost 800,000 barrels per day in January to 30.81 million bpd. That is still slightly more than the expected 2019 demand for OPEC crude, which the producer group lowered to 30.59 million bpd.

Worried by a drop in oil prices and rising supplies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia agreed in December to return to supply cuts. OPEC is lowering output by 800,000 bpd from Jan. 1."

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