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Crude Oil (WTI)

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wow going higher !

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Biggest volume of the year so far pushing this latest move up.

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Doesn't seem to be much interest in WTI here, but if you're into breakouts there's a nice descending wedge here just waiting to break out for you.usoil-h1-ig-group-limited.png

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massive potential for oil to drop to 5280 after NYSE open

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I'm about to be short squeezed on WTI.  Fell asleep before API numbers yesterday, after a week of full of bad trading decisions.  My short position will not force close until around $60.0 

Barring any geopolitical tension, do you think we can come back down to $57.2 (where I opened the short).  Or is this about to rise much more?  If I close it now I lose a significant amount of money (for me anyways).  Would you advise I deposit more money to keep the position alive in the hope that it comes back to 57.2 or close to it?  

@Caseynoteswould really appreciate your input. Also @elle if you would be so kind to chime in.

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I guess it's too late to say "never short crude" especially when the US & Iran are making noise !  Price in an upward channel short term  in my opinion.  Some overhead resistance. $60 has been a price @ which a lot of OPEC & others seem to want. 

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14 minutes ago, backwardation said:

@Caseynoteswould really appreciate your input. Also @elle if you would be so kind to chime in.

Yes the inventory short fall in the data yesterday cause a lot of surprise and a jump in price.

WTI has just reached an area of previous consolidation in March and May so may well pause here and consider it's options. Oil traders will probably want to look closely at the US GDP figures tomorrow and the G20 over the weekend before making any big bets so the possibility of a turn around remains. Your stop is in a reasonable position at 60 and if price were to overrun it up into clear space you really wouldn't want to remain short anyway.

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Thanks for your prompt replies.   Happy trading :) I'll just have to sit and wait, painful as it may be.  

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The 4 hours candles are 'walking above' the Bollinger.  a backtest of the past 2 years shows that this will almost certainly not end well for me.  Took the loss, and now I'm out of the position.  

Public service announcement: DO NOT FALL ASLEEP DURING BIG NEWS ON AN OPEN TRADE!

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8 hours ago, elle said:

I guess it's too late to say "never short crude" especially when the US & Iran are making noise !  Price in an upward channel short term  in my opinion.  Some overhead resistance. $60 has been a price @ which a lot of OPEC & others seem to want. 

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inventories shortly, will find out if that was true or false

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The prelim data proved correct, inventories today  -12.8M, while the expected figure was  -2.7M.

WTI jumped to just short of 60 before pulling back.

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Its crazy that its not rallying much more.  This is the biggest drawdown in inventory since Sept 2016.  Its a pretty big deal.  

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23 minutes ago, backwardation said:

Its crazy that its not rallying much more.  This is the biggest drawdown in inventory since Sept 2016.  Its a pretty big deal.  

Oil likes round numbers and 60 was also previous resistance so a likely place for sellers to congregate, whether there are enough sell orders waiting there as yet unfilled for another attack on 60, if the news events to come (US GDP and the G20 meeting) warrants it, remains to be seen.

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On ‎26‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 15:15, elle said:

inventories shortly, will find out if that was true or false

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Been trading US Crude for a while - whilst Iran/global concerns are supporting prices in the short term ultimately demand concerns will push prices back down to 5000 levels.

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Guest crudeoli

yesterday i have taken an sell call in crudeoil at 3904 and exited from call 7:30 pm at 3880 

Total Profit : 26 Point 

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Yesterday I have taken a sell call in crude oil at 3873 and exited from the call Today 8:10 pm at 3849

Total Profit: 24

 

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    • Thanks for that @ChrisN, I am aware of it and practice the complex retrace tracking myself too.  What I was referring to was that the classic A-B-C corrective wave has the entire correction below (or above) the previous turn in my approach. I do use the classic A-B-C (5-3-5 internal wave profile) and also the complex retrace with the 3-3-5 internals and that one can get pretty tricky.  There is also a version of this that can be 3-3-3.  I also use the A-E Triangle form (3-3-3-3-3) for continuation consolidations and I find it especially useful for ending channels, I had a perfect one to set up my recent Shorts on US large caps.  However in all classic retrace cases (A-B-CsI do not allow the wave B to eclipse the previous motive wave high.  I am aware that some EWT analysts do use this mechanism.  As a matter of simplicity I kind of reject the notion that a wave 3 (motive) top can be eclipsed by a wave B top in a retrace move.  It would seem to make more sense in the classic 1-5 that the wave 3 is the peak and the next major peak would be the wave 5 but only after the retrace is completed. This is all a matter of personal choice of course, for me creating a trading and analytical method from existing technical analysis methodologies is about selecting the aspects of several that fits your psychology and testing it to ensure it works well.  A key factor is understanding when it doesn't work, one example would be where one of the more exotic EWT retrace scenarios takes place.  So I am aware but I do not use it in my methodology. Naturally I agree with your assessment of the power of the tool-sets but like anything it requires extensive study, practice and failures to learn how to use it best within the context of ones own psychology.
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