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After a good run , the  price fell back quite a bit today & I don't know why. Can anyone shed some light on this price drop.           Many thanks

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@elle, I don't know the reasons why but it could be any of the following:

  • Investors pre IPO exiting
  • Investors post IPO exiting
  • Some serious profit taking from retail institutions (because they simply have to for performance targets)
  • Some serious profit taking from private investors
  • Speculators exiting on any trend reversal
  • Shorting
  • Just basically more sellers than buyers at this moment

Could the valuation have raced ahead too far without being able to justify it? Was it simply overvalued?

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Hi @elle

I do not follow this share so do not have specific information, but your question reminded me of this from @rimmy2000 that I read recently and found really informative:

 

 

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thanks for the replies,  you're very kind . I just thought that due to the size of the move, there was some news

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If I knew, I wouldn't have asked   !!!!!

Obviously a channel break  - recent director sell,  had quite a run    etc     -  but that's quite a move

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posted on this recently .... bit early on that sell order but not bad.

Currently 300 points in profit. Was tempted to add at 4000 to the short but didn't...  worried about a break. My post below may provide some insight. It's trading pretty aggressive for the fundamentals and balance sheet.

 

Edited by cryptotrader
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On 04/10/2018 at 20:49, TrendFollower said:

@elle, why do you think the price dropped?

What are your thoughts?

Profit taking I think. Markets a bit wobbly and people turning to cash? highly rated share, so risk is high at these levels, imo.

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Profit taking and a solid trend suddenly broken. People have been running this on the upside by waiting for a get out. Guess that time was now. 

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fevertree actually tanking today. Chart below shows entry price of 3650 but not correct date of entry. Seeing what tomorrow brings but likely to close significant proportion

1712927594_FevertreeDrinksPLC_20181010_16_51.png.6f44dea598697fc2a5853385ed84959c.png

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    • Hi everyone,  so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle.   Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon)  First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows.   What do you think of this approach?        
    • just to add to bigdeal's reply SBs can be either cash/daily funded bet or futures/forward which have a separate chart accessed from the dropdown box next to the chart title. for cash/dfb there is no expiry but you paid an overnight interest fee, this charge does not apply to futures/forwards which have a larger spread instead. see pic.
    • https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend
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