A very "big and scary" shark!!

[Guest CorbCoropFX]

Hi guys,

Scrolling charts looking for opportunities came into my eyes this lovely shark ready to eat pips in a long-term projection.

From my technical perspective, I see the price breaking below XA 50% Fib retracement, having then a big bounce after touching 2016 higher high and going back into 50%Fib that looks quite solid resistance ( I'll tell better in the next days though ). I expect the price to break below the 2016 support, aiming the completion of a nice and smooth pattern slightly below the 1.1000 Major quarter, expecting then a reversal aiming at  1.2000 Major quarter. 

Let me Know if you agree with me or add more info you see something else

 

 

 

 

 

[Mercury]

Don't really look at this pair @CorbCoropFX but it looks similar to USDCHF.  You will note, if you zoom out a bit, a large flash crash in 2015, which was when the CHF peg to the EUR was removed.  You will see a similar pattern on USDCHF.  Ultimately USDCHF looks set to see a USD rally if and when he market meltdown occurs.  However when this does happen then, most likely in my view, precious metals such as Gold will benefit from a rally too.  As the Swiss economy is heavily backed by physical gold reserves CHF will do better than most other currencies where gold has been sold off (thanks Gordon!).  Therefore logically EURCHF short should be a decent bet but you have to see gold move and probably wait for the current (if proven) EUR rally to end.  That said, I don't track this pair so you cannot really take my views that seriously.

I am interested to know why you seem to favour non USD pairs though.  Regarding your GBPJPY post, again not something I really look at but the Yen is a recognised safe haven. although I expect USD to be much stronger in the coming years.

[Guest CorbCoropFX]

Hi @Mercury, thanks for your reply. Your analysis makes complete sense and I'll take into consideration your views.

Anyway, I do work also on USD pairs but I'm quite new to the financial world (I love technical analysis btw), so I'm basically trying to do some technical on different pairs and post my analysis to receive some feedback and opinions on possible market directions. 

[Mercury]

OK understand @CorbCoropFX.  In that case one piece of advice for practicing technical analysis, pick a few markets and really get to know them.  Best if they are related too.  Technical analysis is not just about following the "rules" but learning how to interpret it on any particular market and, how can I put it, get attuned to the rhythm of the market in question.  Good luck and always practice good risk and money management...

[Guest CorbCoropFX]

Thank you very much @Mercury I really appreciate your advice!!

 I'm practising and focusing on harmonics atm, on what else do you suggest to put my attention on?

[Mercury]

Well @CorbCoropFX it's all a matter of personal taste.  I can talk about what I do but it takes a bit of learning and practice (like a few years...).  Then again everything does I think.  I did a post recently on my method (summary only) so check that out maybe and if you have any specific questions I'd be happy to answer, or at least point you in the direction of some expertise on the subject (i.e. not me, I'm just a journeyman).