UK Homebuilder shares

[phillo]

Have noticed some of these falling in price this week & could be of some value now - guess it depends on Brexit news ???   PSN was in the news , and it's price has fallen, but there could be a buying opportunity coming up

[rimmy2000]

great thread topic!

 

I hold a few CRST. I think the sector is pricing in gloom. I think a macro picture is as important as each companies prospectus right now. Market seems to be pricing in brexit gloom n doom and many householders are on (relatively speaking) crazy cheap valuations. 

 

Let;s try and update the thread over the weekend with some of the main players.

 

[phillo]

BDEV  potential blue demand zone

[phillo]

TW  same

[phillo]

CRST, maybe their recent statement has put their bad news already out there

[phillo]

Note how this one "outperformed" some others recently

[phillo]

a sizeable purchase of CRST shares https://www.investegate.co.uk/crest-nicholson-hdgs--crst-/rns/director-pdmr-shareholding/201810220700076857E/

[Mercury]

Rather depends on whether you are looking at this sector short term or long term.  Ashtead is the biggest property related company on the FTSE100, by market cap excluding CRH, which is actually an Irish based company.  The monthly chart is telling.  If you look at Persimmon the largest house builder, you will see a similar pattern.  Property, particularly anything to do with domestic housing and retail, is a busted flush.  Just look what happened to property after the 1987 Black Monday crash...  All markets move in cycles and property, particularly London housing, is overdue a big crash.  In a trading/investing world where probability is key, I would not be betting on property, except perhaps as a short term trade but even then retrace trades are very tricky and prone to whiplash, much better to trade with the motive direction of the market...  Surely there are better markets and better set ups, unless you want to short property that is. 

[phillo]

CRST   that Big buy has clearly helped this one, moving up well in this "difficult" market

[phillo]

[phillo]

CREST  - doing well, but some overhead resistance

[phillo]

well done @rimmy2000 Crest shares are on a ramp , other homebuilders doing well. ( It was in the charts  )

[phillo]

UK Homebuilders' shares bounce

[Mercury]

Yeah but zoom out on that, e.g. TW.  House builders never recovered from the Credit Crunch, despite super inflated house prices.  What will another debt crisis and house price crash do to them...  My guess is the majority of the pain is done and the move up on TW is a 1-5 (direction change) but expect a significant retrace to coincide with economic crashes across the board.

Make hay on this while you can but watch out for reversing resistance levels...

[rimmy2000]

@elle is producing some good homebuilder charts here. I think things got too oversold, esp with  CRST at under £3, and it looks like the board have been taking advantage here. Personally didn't have any free cash to add else CRST would have been one of my top buys. It is still in my pf as a hold though, slightly in the red but the dividend is secure and happy to hold these. Another one to look at is Telford Homes (TEF) which is primarily London based but also come off a long way.

[rimmy2000]

not sure if this is too little, too late but here is a comparison of the major housebuilders' featured above.

they are all still good value but remember its a cyclical sector.

I read a piece in CityAM today that a positive brexit deal will likely see the top end of the housing market rebound.

(quite busy so brief posts right now)

cheers all

[Mercury]

Hope you took your short term profits on home builders.  Not undervalued after all...  heading for a massive fall, like all stocks really...

It was all in the charts... 😉