Jump to content

UK Homebuilder shares


phillo

Recommended Posts

great thread topic!

 

I hold a few CRST. I think the sector is pricing in gloom. I think a macro picture is as important as each companies prospectus right now. Market seems to be pricing in brexit gloom n doom and many householders are on (relatively speaking) crazy cheap valuations. 

 

Let;s try and update the thread over the weekend with some of the main players.

 

Link to comment

Rather depends on whether you are looking at this sector short term or long term.  Ashtead is the biggest property related company on the FTSE100, by market cap excluding CRH, which is actually an Irish based company.  The monthly chart is telling.  If you look at Persimmon the largest house builder, you will see a similar pattern.  Property, particularly anything to do with domestic housing and retail, is a busted flush.  Just look what happened to property after the 1987 Black Monday crash...  All markets move in cycles and property, particularly London housing, is overdue a big crash.  In a trading/investing world where probability is key, I would not be betting on property, except perhaps as a short term trade but even then retrace trades are very tricky and prone to whiplash, much better to trade with the motive direction of the market...  Surely there are better markets and better set ups, unless you want to short property that is. 

AHT-Monthly_1018.thumb.png.1e59f9ba2c975df0cbffa0d09df4cbdc.png

Link to comment

Yeah but zoom out on that, e.g. TW.  House builders never recovered from the Credit Crunch, despite super inflated house prices.  What will another debt crisis and house price crash do to them...  My guess is the majority of the pain is done and the move up on TW is a 1-5 (direction change) but expect a significant retrace to coincide with economic crashes across the board.

Make hay on this while you can but watch out for reversing resistance levels...

TW-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.c328c82ded5794d3ddfdf08021492b3c.png

Link to comment

@elle is producing some good homebuilder charts here. I think things got too oversold, esp with  CRST at under £3, and it looks like the board have been taking advantage here. Personally didn't have any free cash to add else CRST would have been one of my top buys. It is still in my pf as a hold though, slightly in the red but the dividend is secure and happy to hold these. Another one to look at is Telford Homes (TEF) which is primarily London based but also come off a long way.

Link to comment

not sure if this is too little, too late but here is a comparison of the major housebuilders' featured above.

they are all still good value but remember its a cyclical sector.

I read a piece in CityAM today that a positive brexit deal will likely see the top end of the housing market rebound.

(quite busy so brief posts right now)

cheers all

Screenshot 2018-11-01 at 21.12.03.png

Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,635
    • Total Posts
      97,041
    • Total Members
      44,192
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Kozo
    Joined 06/12/23 10:43
  • Posts

    • Johnson & Johnson, Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ:NYSE): 4h Chart 6 December 23 JNJ Stock Market Analysis: We changed the count to a bullish scenario. At this stage we are looking for upside in either a wave 3 or C that seems to be unfolding as expected. Looking for 5 waves within wave 3/C. JNJ Elliott Wave Count: Wave (iii) of {iii}.   JNJ Technical Indicators: Above all averages. JNJ Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave 3.   TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta           Johnson & Johnson, JNJ: 1-hour Chart 6 December 23 Johnson & Johnson, Elliott Wave Technical Analysis JNJ Stock Market Analysis: Looking for a sideways consolidation into wave (iv) to then continue higher as we seem to be finding support on 158$. Upside target for wave {iii} stands at 161.5 as we have 2.618 of {iii} vs. {i}. JNJ Elliott Wave count:  Wave (iv) of {iii} JNJ Technical Indicators: Above all averages. JNJ Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave (v).    
    • EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day  Chart, 6 December 23 Euro/U.S.Dollar(EURUSD) Day Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function:  Counter Trend Mode: impulsive as A   Structure:blue wave 2 of A Position: Y of wave 2/B Direction Next lower Degrees: blue wave 3 of A   Details:After blue wave 1 now blue wave 2 as a correction started  . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.10192 The "EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart" for 6 December 23, delves into the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) pair within a daily timeframe, employing Elliott Wave analysis to provide traders with a comprehensive view of market dynamics. Identified as a "Counter Trend" analysis, the focus is on potential reversals against the prevailing market trend. This is crucial for traders aiming to capitalize on corrective movements or trend changes. The analysis characterizes the current market "Mode" as "impulsive as A," signifying that the observed price action is impulsive and falls within the context of an A-wave in the Elliott Wave structure. Impulsive movements are typically strong and directional, often marking the initiation of a new trend. The primary "Structure" is labeled as "blue wave 2 of A," detailing the current phase within the Elliott Wave framework. Understanding the wave structure is fundamental for traders to gauge the market's position in the broader cycle. The specified "Position" is denoted as "Y of wave 2/B," indicating the current wave count within the larger degree of correction. This level of detail assists traders in comprehending the intricacies of the ongoing correction. The directional guidance for "Next Lower Degrees" is projected as "blue wave 3 of A," suggesting an anticipation of the next impulsive wave within the overarching correction. This information is valuable for traders seeking alignment with the expected market direction. In terms of "Details," the analysis notes that "After blue wave 1, now blue wave 2 as a correction started." This informs traders that the market is currently undergoing a corrective phase following the completion of the first impulsive wave. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is identified as "1.10192," serving as a critical threshold. If the market reaches this level, it would invalidate the current wave count, prompting a reconsideration of the prevailing market conditions. To summarize, the EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis for the day chart on 6 December 23, presents a counter-trend impulsive movement labeled as "wave 2 of A." The analysis provides insights into the wave structure, position, expected next wave, and a crucial level for potential wave cancellation.    
×
×
  • Create New...
us