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UK Homebuilder shares


phillo

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great thread topic!

 

I hold a few CRST. I think the sector is pricing in gloom. I think a macro picture is as important as each companies prospectus right now. Market seems to be pricing in brexit gloom n doom and many householders are on (relatively speaking) crazy cheap valuations. 

 

Let;s try and update the thread over the weekend with some of the main players.

 

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Rather depends on whether you are looking at this sector short term or long term.  Ashtead is the biggest property related company on the FTSE100, by market cap excluding CRH, which is actually an Irish based company.  The monthly chart is telling.  If you look at Persimmon the largest house builder, you will see a similar pattern.  Property, particularly anything to do with domestic housing and retail, is a busted flush.  Just look what happened to property after the 1987 Black Monday crash...  All markets move in cycles and property, particularly London housing, is overdue a big crash.  In a trading/investing world where probability is key, I would not be betting on property, except perhaps as a short term trade but even then retrace trades are very tricky and prone to whiplash, much better to trade with the motive direction of the market...  Surely there are better markets and better set ups, unless you want to short property that is. 

AHT-Monthly_1018.thumb.png.1e59f9ba2c975df0cbffa0d09df4cbdc.png

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Yeah but zoom out on that, e.g. TW.  House builders never recovered from the Credit Crunch, despite super inflated house prices.  What will another debt crisis and house price crash do to them...  My guess is the majority of the pain is done and the move up on TW is a 1-5 (direction change) but expect a significant retrace to coincide with economic crashes across the board.

Make hay on this while you can but watch out for reversing resistance levels...

TW-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.c328c82ded5794d3ddfdf08021492b3c.png

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@elle is producing some good homebuilder charts here. I think things got too oversold, esp with  CRST at under £3, and it looks like the board have been taking advantage here. Personally didn't have any free cash to add else CRST would have been one of my top buys. It is still in my pf as a hold though, slightly in the red but the dividend is secure and happy to hold these. Another one to look at is Telford Homes (TEF) which is primarily London based but also come off a long way.

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not sure if this is too little, too late but here is a comparison of the major housebuilders' featured above.

they are all still good value but remember its a cyclical sector.

I read a piece in CityAM today that a positive brexit deal will likely see the top end of the housing market rebound.

(quite busy so brief posts right now)

cheers all

Screenshot 2018-11-01 at 21.12.03.png

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