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FTSE topping pattern & implications


Guest TradingMotives

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Guest TradingMotives

I track FTSE250 on a regular basis because it is a large index & has proven it's worth as a bellwether.  While obviously correlated with the FTSE100, it also has very good correlation with $SPX. The reason for posting this commentary is that the FTSE250 monthly shows an important topping pattern called an expanding pivot (using Dr Alan Andrews terminology (pitchfork fame)). This is also known as a "broadening top" for Classical Charting & a 5-point reversal (Gartley). These signals are not common on long term charts & while there is still a probability that the pattern might fail, the first significant retracement will give a lot more information. 

FTSE250 topped 5 months earlier than $SPX in 2007 & also found a bottom in 2008 relative to the $SPX in 2009. The two seem well correlated, but FTSE250 can lead as shown historically. The green line on the FTSE250 chart is SPX (for comparison).

For those not familiar with this expanding pivot pattern, there are examples on $DJTA weekly (2008), $XJO weekly (2007) & more recently on $TSX300 weekly. 

Why do I look at monthly & weekly charts? Helps to keep me focused on the big picture, so I can trade the smaller picture more effectively. The first retracement on weekly & daily will be very important to watch. 

tradingmotives.com

MCX.X FTSE250 M 20181023.png

$TRAN W 2008.png

$XJO W 2007.png

$TSX300 W 20181022.png

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Yep @TradingMotives I recognise the expanding wedge pattern as an ending pattern when things get volatile in the battle between Bulls and Bears before an eventual capitulation and reversal.  However as I don't see this on any of the main markets I am unconvinced we have yet seen the top out.  It could well be that we have seen the top on the smaller Cap markets, that would be seen as more risky, and a shift into large Cap (relative safety) could push a final leg rally.  Given I can't see a similar correlation with the Russell 2000 (the US equivalent) and a general lack of correlations, I would not be betting the house on the FTSE250 at this stage.  No hurry to diagnose this one as if it is the end there is a long, long way to go.  You don't want to get caught in a short squeeze is the markets stage a significant rally...

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