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EURGBP Daily

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Hi Mercury, what will make me question this move is that If we see a 3 wave action to the 61.8 fib from W4 of C on  to the T-line that I constructed then this could be labelled as W-X, and then this could repeat itself again, which given the momentum right now I suspect that may be the case, but confirmation of the current wave count would confirm this action.

aud usd 2h.png

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I prefer a standard 1-5 view on this one just now  assuming the move up is a motive and needs to top out this market before a strong bearish move.  In other analysis we agree that EURUSD is set to rally and for me so is GBPUSD.  If EUR does rally to the top of the Triangle line near 11600 then EURGBP should similarly rally to deliver a final wave top.

 

The bounce off the Fib 62% is also at strong support and a previous Triangle break out apex.

 



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If we where looking for the chance to add to a position on this pair, although presently looks impulsive, W-c potentially of this present potential correction 8587 level could head towards the T-line that I have updated, but I would want further evidence of possibly some RSI div or EWT momentum decrease.

aud usd 2h.png

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Ah ok I thought that was what you meant.  We are at odds on this one, I am Long at the Fib 62% and now B/E protected and looking for a short 1-5 run up to a top in the 8800 region.  As such there may be a EWT1-2 retrace so watch out for this as a Bear trap!  If the EURUSD rallies to the 11600 mark then EURGBP is also likely to rally, depending on how hard GBPUSD rallies of course.

 

If in doubt and of a Bearish mindset I would wait for a topping out or a break back below the short term Fib 62% line (recent low) to avoid any Bear traps.

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I note that some traders have commented bearishly on this pair over the weekend and I can see their point but I am not so sure this market has topped out, especially if we see a Euro rally back to the upper Triangle line (see EURUSD thread).  One thing is sure, EURGBP is at a pivotal point.  A rally away from here suggests a new higher high or at least a significant retrace of the recent move down.  A breakout through support suggests the Bears will have it.  A long here is very low risk with stops just below the support zone.

 



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