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Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

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@Caseynotes,

You are totally twisting my posts which is just plain wrong. I do not post trade advice and I am not suggesting anyone follows my potential trading suggestions. It is merely to engage in discussion. 

I am not looking for anyone to teach me how to trade. You are totally making assumptions and misrepresenting my intentions. Of course I can learn and improve just like anyone else as I am not a professional trader nor am I an expert. I am not looking for an education. If I want to learn then I am aware of what I must do. 

@Caseynotes, what makes you more higher qualified than anyone else on IG Community? As I stated before, there is no substance behind you. You shy away from actually offering anything credible. I used to have a mentor thank you. He helped me a lot during my early years of trading. In terms of investing and building investment portfolios and creating long term wealth then I am actually a mentor to others. 

A mentor in trading would be someone successful, knowledgable, experienced and profitable. Not everyone knows someone like that hence the IG Community. Others cannot ask you to be their mentor as you post theory and analysis but where is the substance behind it? There is no actual trade where one can measure you. My Gold and Silver live trades were both profitable. My short on S&P 500 made a loss as my stop loss was triggered but it was initially well into profit. We all know what happened on that trade. You simply move on. I don't even think about those trades. I have traded Lumber, Orange Juice, Bitcoin, etc. They have all been profitable. Yes, I have made losses too but that is trading. All you can do is go back to my two live trades I shared and judge on that. What can people judge you on? Nothing as for all your posts after posts after posts they offer nothing of substance in terms of real trading that you are doing. No one knows what you trade and when. You are just hiding behind theory in your posts.

Anyway sticking to this thread what do you think about Gold both 'Long' or 'Short'. Why don't you actually offer something credible to the IG Community. You see the reality is that none of us know what is going to happen in the future. So we make assumptions that we test. We will be right sometimes and wrong the others. What are your views on Gold going forwards? Share your wisdom, intelligence and superiority with others on IG Community if you know better. 

Let's stick to the thread topic please. 

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@TrendFollower, I see it as important to correct unsound and misleading analysis in order to protect those who may be fooled into thinking it had any real value. As someone pointed out to you back in March "and don't take this the wrong way but a lot of what you're encouraging people to do is going to cause them to lose money." New people on the forum may not be aware you have a history of this sort of thing.

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@Caseynotes,

First of all, why don't you offer correct and sound analysis in terms of real trades that have real value to the IG Community. 

I am not encouraging anyone to lose money. 

I have no such history on this forum as I shares two live trades in the past and one was profitable and the other was not. You are just trying to belittle me.

Why not stick to this thread and share some real insight.

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I offer correct and sound analysis all day, every day @TrendFollower for those that can be bothered to read it. The last piece of sound analysis on offer was just 10 minutes ago (see USDJPY).

Perhaps you should re-read Mcg's post in the US 500 thread page 6 as they give a number of examples of problematic analysis.

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@Caseynotes,

This is a Gold thread so if you are going to advise others to keep it thread related then you must adhere to it yourself.

What is your correct and sound analysis on Gold? That is what this thread is in relation to. 

I am not interested on USD/JPY on this thread as that has nothing to do with trading Gold. If you are going to post on this thread then add some value on trading Gold. What are your thoughts. I want to see your sound analysis and actually see how it plays out going forwards. 

So how are you going to trade Gold and we will all follow this trade closely and lets see how your sound rationale and analysis leads to an effective entry point and profitable exit point. Just remind me and others what your trading style is again as I honestly cannot remember. Are you a swing trader or a day trader? Or do you use another trading methodology?

 

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Posted (edited)

Let me get back to the seriousness of this thread. 

The price action last week indicates to me that the US dollar is one of the biggest influences on the direction that the Gold price takes. I mean the price action could continue to be bearish and go down from here should demand for the US Dollar increase from safe haven demand and if the US Economy shows that it is strengening. 

One must factor in geopolitical risk too. If the Gold price is going to increase then it may require the situation between the US and China worsening in relation to trade talks or even the latest military scenario between the US and Iran. 

Now Gold is currently trading at $1277 level. It hit $1273 earlier and for me that $1270 is still a key short term price point to be aware of from the 'daily' perspective. Only if that is broken on the downside could there be further bearishness. I do not know what is going to happen going forwards so it is certainly fascinating. 

I think any bad news could see the Gold price rise and positive news could see the Gold price continue declining. Very uncertain times for Gold right now. 

Edited by TrendFollower

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1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

@Caseynotes,

This is a Gold thread so if you are going to advise others to keep it thread related then you must adhere to it yourself.

What is your correct and sound analysis on Gold? That is what this thread is in relation to. 

I am not interested on USD/JPY on this thread as that has nothing to do with trading Gold. If you are going to post on this thread then add some value on trading Gold. What are your thoughts. I want to see your sound analysis and actually see how it plays out going forwards. 

So how are you going to trade Gold and we will all follow this trade closely and lets see how your sound rationale and analysis leads to an effective entry point and profitable exit point. Just remind me and others what your trading style is again as I honestly cannot remember. Are you a swing trader or a day trader? Or do you use another trading methodology?

 

If you are going to tag @TrendFollower you must be expecting a reply.

So you are demanding a free signal service now, does that mean that when you said (after posting untried, useless strategies for others to use) that actually you had your own 'secret' system - was that not true then? 

You must be desperate, but wait - what's this pearl of wisdom from your last post;

"Let me get back to the seriousness of this thread ... I think any bad news could see the Gold price rise and positive news could see the Gold price continue declining."  hmm yes.

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I would be tempted to avoid gold altogether.  I guess IG push it because it's popular with its clients.  Good luck trying to make money on it though.

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@dmedin

I agree. I have openly said that Gold as an asset is not something I am positive about long term going forwards. Also as an investment I am not too keen on it either. There was a trading opportunity for Gold from August 2018 which I participated in. 

Yes, IG do seem to have a Gold post every other day if not every day highlighting the basic price action thus potentially trying to encourage its clients. 

There are better and more stronger trending assets than Gold. Also one must not rely on luck or hope when trading. The trend clearly from a 'daily' chart perspective is downwards and has been since the middle of February 2019. Are people too late to 'short'? Time will tell.

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Gold has hit that important $1270 level again today. This in my opinion is a key level as either this level will be breached by a further move downwards to it will offer support for Gold to bounce back upwards. I have no idea which way it will go but following the US Dollar may give some idea on Gold's future direction. 

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Though Gold did touch that $1269 price point it soon bounced back up to $1274 level which is where it is at the time of writing this post.

Gold seems to have support at that critical $1270 level as I have mentioned before. The unconventional triple bottom is signalling that it will take something slightly more than the current environment for it to fall and stay below this level but let’s see as I cannot be certain that level will continue to hold. However there have been several attempts to go below this level which have failed so there is some support there and could prove to be a sign of strength. Again it is at that point where is really could move either way depending on news and the US Dollar.

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Gold seems to be trying to reverse its recent bearishness. It is trading currently at $1277 and seems to have found support around the $1270 level as I have discussed in my previous posts. Now I have not done anything to clever here. All I have done is follow the price action on a daily basis. When you do this and look at it via the charts then it is not difficult to find price points which offer support to the Gold price. This is particularly important to shorter term swing traders.

Gold itself is still in a downtrend but there could be short term relief where the price tries to go up with UK political instability, Brexit and US-China trade issues. The US Dollar will be critical to all this. So there is the potential for a short term 'Long' Gold trade but like I say the current downtrend since middle of February 2019 is still in play at the moment. 

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Gold is trading at $1284 and seems like my gut feeling / instincts were right. When you follow the price action, you end up living and breathing the asset which can help with trading decisions. It still does not guarantee success but being in tune with the asset is a vital ingredient when trading.

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What is interesting with Gold is that fundamentally the stage is set for Gold to motor upwards but technically the price action is not in line with the fundamentals. So the question is why? The US Dollar is one of the main reasons. Another could be that the demand needed is not there as capital is being allocated to other assets with Bonds being a potential benefactor, Equities being another and Cryptocurrencies being injected with more and more capital. 

What worries me about Gold is that if it is a the go to 'Save Haven' then why is capital not flowing into Gold and why is the Gold price not shooting up?

It is being reported that the SPDR Gold ETF has experienced its largest outflow since 2016, with an outflow exceeding $926 million in the first week of May alone. Why is this?

Now it could be that Gold is due a monster move which is coming in the weeks and months going forwards and what we are witnessing is a period of quite before the fireworks. I do not know but Gold is not reacting like textbooks suggest it should. 

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@TrendFollower

After our discussion last week about being short Gold, I would like to say for the record had I shorted Gold last week  (I'm sure you know I didn't)  I would now be out. That is to say, I would not wait for my Stop or my Target to be hit but would run for cover now. I am posting this just in case anybody has shorted Gold because they were following the thread. I now believe that trade to be very risky, so I am now reverting to the uptrend from August last year and suggesting if I was going to trade Gold I would trade Long with a target of 1325. I don't trade Gold so I will not be trading this trend but I am interested, given this is the trend you were following will you get back in? Before you ask I am trading shorts on the DAX and unfortunately can only trade one Index.  

XAUUSD-1-hour.png

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We were all bullish on gold I think, same as IG.  Then we got burned.  Just waiting for the 'golden moment' when it breaks out.  It will happen anyway now ...

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@Foxy,

It all depends on if there are any other stronger trending assets at the time. So it is a possibility should Gold see an uptrend but I cannot say 100% I will if there were far better profit opportunities elsewhere. A lot would depend on the state of Equities, Risk Appetite, general risks around the world and any political tensions. If things were getting very negative and ugly around the world then it could create an environment where Gold could see a monster move but none of us know this is going to happen or not so would just see at the time.

@dmedin, I actually profited from my 'Long' Gold trade and 'Long Silver' trade. So I was not one of them who got burned. When my trades go into profit, I then switch to a 'Trailing Stop'. This ensure that I do not lose on those trades and am guaranteed to exit with a profit. 

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@TrendFollower Excellent news.  Gold does seem to be bouncing up and down in a fairly predictable range at this stage, I personally traded the recent breakout, after it pulled back a little, but sadly it pulled all the way back down again.  :D

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11 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@Foxy,

It all depends on if there are any other stronger trending assets at the time. So it is a possibility should Gold see an uptrend but I cannot say 100% I will if there were far better profit opportunities elsewhere. A lot would depend on the state of Equities, Risk Appetite, general risks around the world and any political tensions. If things were getting very negative and ugly around the world then it could create an environment where Gold could see a monster move but none of us know this is going to happen or not so would just see at the time.

@dmedin, I actually profited from my 'Long' Gold trade and 'Long Silver' trade. So I was not one of them who got burned. When my trades go into profit, I then switch to a 'Trailing Stop'. This ensure that I do not lose on those trades and am guaranteed to exit with a profit. 

@TrendFollower

You have called this thread, Potential "Long" Gold Trade, I think you opened it when you spotted the breakout in Gold last December. I know the trend started in August but the breakout happened the beginning of December just as you started to post about it so I assume you also spotted that breakout as you started this thread and tested your trade, it will be interesting to see how it plays out now as it's my belief that Gold was overbought and has simply corrected to its channel, as ever we cannot rule out the possibility of a continued decline, however you have in the past been critical that people are too scared to give their opinion in case it's wrong. I think it's very relevant to the thread to at least follow the trend until it breaks. We have seen a great rally followed by a correction and should now "hopefully" see a continuation of the rally. POTENTIAL "LONG" GOLD TRADE

xauusd-d1-ig-group-limited-2.png

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@Foxy,

I agree with your sentiment. I mean since December it should have been the 'Potential Short Gold Trade' but how many threads does one open? I agree that Gold was overbought and this may well have involved speculative capital. The move in Gold did not seem sustainable so a correction like we have witnessed was inevitable. 

At the moment Gold could either continue downwards or trade in a sideways range. Gold will need fundamental drivers to push it upwards for another 'Long' rally and create 'Technicals' that support a potential 'Long' Gold trade. 

Those who were 'Long' Gold would have had their stop losses triggered and they would have exited that trade. Now whether they chose to short Gold or stay away was a decision up to them. At the moment there technicals do not support a 'Long' trade just yet. The 200 DMA is sloping upwards which in my view is a bullish long term indicator. The 50 DMA is sloping downwards which is a short term bearish indicator. So the direction is starting to become unclear as to what will happen in the coming weeks and months. I think it will be economic and political news driven. 

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12 hours ago, dmedin said:

We were all bullish on gold I think, same as IG.  Then we got burned.  Just waiting for the 'golden moment' when it breaks out.  It will happen anyway now ...

@dmedin

How did you get burnt?

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1 minute ago, TrendFollower said:

@Foxy,

I agree with your sentiment. I mean since December it should have been the 'Potential Short Gold Trade' but how many threads does one open? I agree that Gold was overbought and this may well have involved speculative capital. The move in Gold did not seem sustainable so a correction like we have witnessed was inevitable. 

At the moment Gold could either continue downwards or trade in a sideways range. Gold will need fundamental drivers to push it upwards for another 'Long' rally and create 'Technicals' that support a potential 'Long' Gold trade. 

Those who were 'Long' Gold would have had their stop losses triggered and they would have exited that trade. Now whether they chose to short Gold or stay away was a decision up to them. At the moment there technicals do not support a 'Long' trade just yet. The 200 DMA is sloping upwards which in my view is a bullish long term indicator. The 50 DMA is sloping downwards which is a short term bearish indicator. So the direction is starting to become unclear as to what will happen in the coming weeks and months. I think it will be economic and political news driven. 

@TrendFollower

I think you meant since Feb, not Dec but I know what you mean. Your rationale is probably very good but Gold tends to bounce up and down so it's just as likely to run up to test the highs at 1375. I would rather join a rally as close to the start as possible, now I was with you at the breakout Dec not August but now it's part of the same trend and on the way to 1375 I can't help feel you have a tendency to over think the fundamentals, not every trade will result in a 3 month rally and you won't know before the trade how strong the trend will be, if you wait and see you risk entry right at the end of the trade.

P.S. The Markets are always Politically and News-Driven

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@Foxy,

Yes I meant Feb. We cannot trade everything (well I can't anyway) so I try and identify the strongest trending assets. If in the future Gold is one of those then I shall trade it and if it not then I will not. Gold was a strong trending asset at that particular time. Gold right now seems to be making 'Lower Highs' and 'Lower Lows' which is rather bearish so one could argue that this is a 'Short' trade but I accept your premise on Gold arriving at its long term channel upwards which makes shorting tricky right now. I think more aggressive traders would already be short Gold and will be profiting. 

I agree we do not know how long the trend will last and how strong it will be. If you enter too early and they are false breakouts then you risk continuous stop losses being triggered resulting in losses. It all depends on your trading strategy and your trading perspective. 

From a 'Trend Following' perspective it is about catching the middle of the trend. So trend followers will not enter in at the lowest price or sell at the highest price. They will try and be involved in the middle part of the trend. They will cut losses short and let their winners run. So no price targets. They will hold their position until the trend reverses. 

What is your trading perspective / style? 

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2 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@Foxy,

Yes I meant Feb. We cannot trade everything (well I can't anyway) so I try and identify the strongest trending assets. If in the future Gold is one of those then I shall trade it and if it not then I will not. Gold was a strong trending asset at that particular time. Gold right now seems to be making 'Lower Highs' and 'Lower Lows' which is rather bearish so one could argue that this is a 'Short' trade but I accept your premise on Gold arriving at its long term channel upwards which makes shorting tricky right now. I think more aggressive traders would already be short Gold and will be profiting. 

I agree we do not know how long the trend will last and how strong it will be. If you enter too early and they are false breakouts then you risk continuous stop losses being triggered resulting in losses. It all depends on your trading strategy and your trading perspective. 

From a 'Trend Following' perspective it is about catching the middle of the trend. So trend followers will not enter in at the lowest price or sell at the highest price. They will try and be involved in the middle part of the trend. They will cut losses short and let their winners run. So no price targets. They will hold their position until the trend reverses. 

What is your trading perspective / style? 

@TrendFollower

I don't really think you are a trend follower, from your post you sound like a "Position Trader " you take a position and hold that position until the market changes direction. I, on the other hand, follow the short term trends both up and down. If the market is rallying I hold like you would and follow the trend. When it is volatile as the Indices are now I trade the overall trend, currently down so I sell the highs again following the trend not swing trading the ups. I would use a breakout on a longer-term trend like that we have discussed last Dec on Gold but don't wait for breakouts in any other form so not a breakout trader. So not a swing trader, not a breakout trader and I wouldn't say a day trader but you might call me that because I tend to close out the same day except in an extended rally. I don't think I'm a scalper because I don't scalp candles but I do use a scalping curve so maybe, maybe not. I think that makes me a trend follower. My trading is all about my strategy, not any label you may wish to put on it. It is important to to be able to enter and exit on a day trade strategy because at some point you need to enter and exit. This is probably the hardest part of trading and the main reason why people like to use breakouts on a D1 chart but then you risk becoming a watcher, not a trader. So there you go you tell me what label would you like to give me?

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1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

We cannot trade everything (well I can't anyway) so I try and identify the strongest trending assets. If in the future Gold is one of those then I shall trade it and if it not then I will not

@TrendFollower

Please don't think I am pushing you to go long on Gold, You started this thread and I am just following the trend that you identified I am sure you have many followers looking for your continued input on this subject whether you trade it or not, after all, it's quite an active thread and it's called Potential "Long" Gold Trade

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15 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@Foxy,

It all depends on if there are any other stronger trending assets at the time. So it is a possibility should Gold see an uptrend but I cannot say 100% I will if there were far better profit opportunities elsewhere. A lot would depend on the state of Equities, Risk Appetite, general risks around the world and any political tensions. If things were getting very negative and ugly around the world then it could create an environment where Gold could see a monster move but none of us know this is going to happen or not so would just see at the time.

@dmedin, I actually profited from my 'Long' Gold trade and 'Long Silver' trade. So I was not one of them who got burned. When my trades go into profit, I then switch to a 'Trailing Stop'. This ensure that I do not lose on those trades and am guaranteed to exit with a profit. 

Sir good afternoon.gold trading tips sir???

 

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@Foxy,

 Oh don't worry about that. No one can push me into a trade that I am not comfortable with or meets my criteria. It is my hard earned capital that I am investing after all. To be honest I tend to use profits from my investing side to allocate to trading but it is still hard earned regardless.

Every trade is potential as when we enter we cannot be 100% sure the trade will follow our assumption. That is the only reason why I use the 'potential' label. Also potential as some may not agree or see it as a trade worth participating so it is only a trade some would consider. 

I follow trend following principles but I have tweaked them to suit my personality, mindset, risk tolerance, etc. I agree labels are difficult as you could argue that I adopt several trading methods but in principle they are more closely aligned to trend following principles. I have no label for your trading style, I was just wondering so it was nice of you to explain.

Yes it is quite an active thread as Gold is one of those well known assets which has lower margin requirements to trade so it is quite popular. Also it is far less volatile than other assets so I appreciate why some traders would look to trade Gold. I am not saying they are the only reasons why this is a popular thread but it may be part of it. 

Entry and Exits are important parts of any trading strategy. We will all have different signals and indicators that we use and there is no right or wrong. There are many ways of 'skinning a cat'. 

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28 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@Foxy,

 Oh don't worry about that. No one can push me into a trade that I am not comfortable with or meets my criteria. It is my hard earned capital that I am investing after all. To be honest I tend to use profits from my investing side to allocate to trading but it is still hard earned regardless.

Every trade is potential as when we enter we cannot be 100% sure the trade will follow our assumption. That is the only reason why I use the 'potential' label. Also potential as some may not agree or see it as a trade worth participating so it is only a trade some would consider. 

I follow trend following principles but I have tweaked them to suit my personality, mindset, risk tolerance, etc. I agree labels are difficult as you could argue that I adopt several trading methods but in principle they are more closely aligned to trend following principles. I have no label for your trading style, I was just wondering so it was nice of you to explain.

Yes it is quite an active thread as Gold is one of those well known assets which has lower margin requirements to trade so it is quite popular. Also it is far less volatile than other assets so I appreciate why some traders would look to trade Gold. I am not saying they are the only reasons why this is a popular thread but it may be part of it. 

Entry and Exits are important parts of any trading strategy. We will all have different signals and indicators that we use and there is no right or wrong. There are many ways of 'skinning a cat'. 

@TrendFollower

I better not catch you skinning my cat, the Mrs will have your guts for garters. LOL😿

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On 26/05/2019 at 09:01, Foxy said:

@dmedin

How did you get burnt?

 

14th May, it looked like gold had broken out of a continuation-style triangle and previous trend was up, I bought on the pullback to the dotted (original) line, but instead of going back up it sank back down.  The MAs looked good too.  Sadly it wasn't to be that time :D

 

gold.thumb.jpg.ed1667718a321f0f3750748f289148b2.jpg

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