Jump to content

Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

Recommended Posts

Is the current price action of Silver indicating a potential dip down coming for Gold? After such a parabolic rise it would be normal for Gold to correct. Silver may be taking the lead and it will be interesting to see if this is the case or not. Both could simply continue going upwards. 

Share this post


Link to post
On 25/06/2019 at 16:24, TrendFollower said:

Is the current price action of Silver indicating a potential dip down coming for Gold? After such a parabolic rise it would be normal for Gold to correct. Silver may be taking the lead and it will be interesting to see if this is the case or not. Both could simply continue going upwards. 

What's the news of gold??

Share this post


Link to post

@gautamhait,

If you 'Google' Gold or search Gold on an internet browser, you will get the news for Gold. I have noticed that you are asking this same question time and time again on different threads to different people. 

If you want to trade Gold then you are going to have to put the time and effort in following the news for Gold yourself. I know this sounds harsh and maybe even rude. My intention is not to be rude but I just fail to understand how you can even trade any asset when you are constantly asking this question or questions similar to this time and time again. 

None of us have crystal **** and none us know what is going to happen tomorrow or in the future going forwards. 

I have some questions for you.

1) Are you actually trading Gold? 

2) If so are you 'Long' or 'Short'?

3) Which trading style are you using. Are you trying to day trade Gold or do you want to trade Gold on a longer time horizon?

The more information you provide the more someone on the IG Community can try and assist you. I will give you my personal views and thoughts. They may be right or they could just as easily be wrong.

I have no idea if you are investing in Gold physically or even investing in Gold via an ETF, investment trust or unit trust. You must provide more information and articulate what you are looking for to enable someone on the IG Community to add some value and meaningful views to you. 

Share this post


Link to post

Hello All / Fellow Gold Traders

I'm new here, as of today in fact, albeit, i've been with IG for the last 7 years as well!

I actively trade Gold, that said, i've recently started to scale in on the long side. The last few months offered excellent trading opportunities.

I've since moved away from short term trading to building a longer term position here, i'll holding for months.

Looking for that b move to complete possibly end of this year, into 2020, and then i'll look to become bearish again.

Expecting a final dip in over the coming days, buy orders set at 1386-1378 zone, hope we get there.

Just my tuppence worth.

All the very best.

Share this post


Link to post

@PJ19,,

I do trade precious metals whether that be Gold, Silver or Palladium from time to time but I would not say I am an active Gold trader. If Gold is trending stronger than other assets which it is been on at least two occasions when it is has moved big since August 2018 then I will trade it. 

It will be interesting to see if Gold does drop at the zone you mentioned. I agree. I am expecting a correction but I have no idea where this will go down to. It could even correct deeper down to $1350 - $1360 levels if equities are going up and economic and political news is positive rather than negative. 

Gold could just stick to Fibonacci retracement.   

Share this post


Link to post
42 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@PJ19,,

I do trade precious metals whether that be Gold, Silver or Palladium from time to time but I would not say I am an active Gold trader. If Gold is trending stronger than other assets which it is been on at least two occasions when it is has moved big since August 2018 then I will trade it. 

It will be interesting to see if Gold does drop at the zone you mentioned. I agree. I am expecting a correction but I have no idea where this will go down to. It could even correct deeper down to $1350 - $1360 levels if equities are going up and economic and political news is positive rather than negative. 

Gold could just stick to Fibonacci retracement.   

Agree, 1360 is a good area as well, and again a good point to add in at those levels.

We could see Gold top out around the 1650+ zone, possibly year end/into next year, given Golds positive early year moves.

Share this post


Link to post

I had a 'gut feeling' that Trump and Kim Jong-un's get together over the weekend would cause Gold to continue falling. 

It is like the US controls the market behaviour through the release of news exactly at the time it wants to. Trump is very proud of the US stock market performance and I would call it 'indirect manipulation' or 'silent manipulation' which is not obvious to the normal public around the world. 

The US decides when it wants to arrange meetings and release certain information via media channels. The traders and general public have no control over the news flow and when it will be released so the US Government have the edge in terms of calling the market direction. They know what news will be released in the future. 

Share this post


Link to post

I just thought I would look back at all the past few years of Gold threads and posts and it seems clear that this so called big move in Gold simply has not come like it was being predicted on the IG Community, earlier this year, last year and even the year before that. 

Price action is king. Bitcoin has seen a few large moves come and go and even after the 80% or so corrections is far higher than what Gold has shown in the same period.

If I was a betting man (I am not) then I would bet that whilst Trump remains the President of the US, he will try his best not to allow US Equities to fall and crash to those levels associated with recessionary periods. This will impact on any potential price behaviour for Gold. 

Gold needs some serious drivers. Silver will merely follow Gold's lead. So let us put Silver to one side though I accept the premise that Silver should outperform Gold in any major bull market for Precious Metals. It needs political turmoil, economic catastrophe, major wars, major crisis, etc. Right now the US-China trade issues and Brexit seem to be the main drivers for Gold. The major western economies are not crashing at this moment in time. Will they in the future? I simply do not know. The one thing I do know is that these western economies like the US and UK will do everything in their power to ensure their economies do not crash and experience major historical like recessions. This will slow the pace of any major Gold bull market in my opinion.

All one can do is trade Gold based on its current price action and their still is an opportunity to go 'Long' Gold on the dips and trade it on upwards moves which it has been making since August 2018. 

Share this post


Link to post

@TrendFollower

Yes, I think this could be one of those dips. So long as support holds @ 1381 this could be a great chance to get in to the Gold trade, personally I would give it 24 Hrs or so to see if it tests that support.

xauusd-h1-ig-group-limited.png

Share this post


Link to post

@Foxy,

Those with a long term trading strategy for Gold can use the dips to top up and add to their existing positions. They can pyramid upwards.

Share this post


Link to post

Hello Folks,

Looks like we are just about to complete the low of the wave e move, at or around the 1400/1397 level. That's where i have, well, what i consider to be my last buying opportunities before we head out of this zone, to higher, and sustained levels over the coming months.

This has been an accumulation period for me (to the upside), i plan to hold this position into 2020.

Anyone short, please beware, this next move higher should start very soon.

All the very best, and as always just my personal opinion.

Share this post


Link to post

@PJ19,

The truth is I do not know what is going to happen to Gold tomorrow net alone next year. When I look at the 'daily' chart and zoom out then what I see is that these range bound moves can last longer than one thinks. Also every time it has happened since around 2015 has been followed by a downward move. Now I am not suggesting that will happen to Gold after this current price action as history does not have to be repeated and there is now rule or law that states it must. 

For anyone not long Gold, I would wait for the confirmed breakout to the upside before entering. If the next big move is downwards, those who were discussing shorting it will have been bang on the money. I personally do not set targets for holding a trade. It is until the trend changes. By all means hold a winning position but why plan holding till 2020?

Hold it until the market gives you a clear reason to sell it. Hold it until the trend changes downwards. Hold it until technical analysis provides you with signals and indicators to sell. 

Share this post


Link to post

Big gains are made over bigger periods, of time.

Share this post


Link to post

For sure, once price is above, let's say, 1437, then that's what i would consider as a long green light.

Share this post


Link to post

@PJ19,

Exactly right. You are the only one who has stated the obvious in all the time I have been on the IG Community. Letting your winners run will maximise the profit for your trading portfolio. Now if you use leverage effectively then the daily charges will be neither here or there.

Using leverage effectively and letting your winners run will enable you to ride the biggest trends in your chosen asset as long as you have got the directional movement correct. 

Share this post


Link to post

Good to hear.

Even in this trending market, which i see as a bear market rally. I will keep my long positions intact throughout this rally, those long positions are now set in stone, unless price tells me to change my mind otherwise.

I will however add to those positions but only at key levels on this b move up.

I'm overall bearish Gold long term, but expect a high over the next few months, possibly into next year. Then i'll be looking for the decline to commence to new lows.  That's where the big rewards are made, on the way down. Which would be down into the zone of the previous wave 4 move on the way up. But that's over the coming years if you plot it on a monthly chart.

Share this post


Link to post

@PJ19,

I too am bearish on Gold 'Long Term'. I just cannot see in a digital age and digital revolution taking place that the future generations are going to have as much Gold in their portfolio as the older generations.

I too think that short term Gold may go up with all the political and economic uncertainty and risk but longer term I see it value declining as the younger generation allocate their capital to alternative assets to Gold. 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold for me is still in an upward trend for now when one looks at the 'daily' chart. I include it below for your viewing.  It shows that Gold is still trading above its 'daily' 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. If it breaks below its 20 DMA on the 'daily' then there is the potential for a larger drop down towards its 'daily' 50 DMA. The trend to me looks like it is weakening and there is some range bound activity once the market decides which direction it wants to go in next which for me will be depending on the US Dollar along with 'Political and Economic' risk / news. 

127566786_SpotGold_20190715_21_45.png.ae307755c1bedc659978b50d060ccfcb.png

Share this post


Link to post

Silver seems to be more in a more bullish mood compared to Gold. Platinum is too.

Right now I have no conviction either way on whether Gold will go up or down. The only way one can try and get a feel on future direction is by following the US Dollar and looking out for any 'Risk On / Risk Off' situations such as equities tumbling down, potential war conflicts, economic recessions, political mayhem, etc. 

When one looks at the chart some could see a weakening trend upwards leading to selling and a downward move. Others could argue that Gold is consolidating before its next move upwards. I would not want to go 'Long' or 'Short' at this juncture and would prefer to merely wait until the price action confirms the directional move as this is the only way you can stack the odds and probability in your favour should you choose to trade Gold by trading in the direction of Gold's price rather than against it. 

Share this post


Link to post

Price action has delivered a breakout on the upside for Gold. Silver showed this breakout before Silver which is unusual as normally Gold would breakout first and Silver would follow on the upside where as Silver would decline first and Gold would follow. 

However, there are uncertain times when it comes to economic and political woes around the world. The US Fed has indicated a strong chance of a rate cut. Cue - US Dollar - Action - Gold breaking out of range on the upside. 

For those who are not 'Long' Gold then they may wish to consider a 'Long' trade. For those who are adding 'pyramiding' upwards on Gold then they may want to consider adding to their 'Long' positions. There is always the risk of a false breakout but the Silver move was so strong (I mean super strong) that I think there is a good chance that Gold could blast up to $1500 if it follows the same momentum and trend strength. 

Share this post


Link to post

The Gold price has gone above the Parabolic SAR which is a very bullish indicator. I include the chart 'daily' below to highlight this.

1293886460_SpotGold_20190718_20_50.png.de6d13a0b3bdf538771d786d8a2f56a1.png

Add to this that Gold is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's on the 'daily' chart is also a bullish indicator. On top of this the MA curves are sloping upwards apart from the 20 DMA on the daily which is showing a small slant at the tip but this is because such technical analysis is based on past price action and is historical by nature. So today's sharp breakout and price action will show tomorrow and in the coming days on the 'daily' technical indicators which if it continues should change the tip of the 20 DMA into upward sloping on the 'daily'. I include the 'daily' moving averages set up below.

1464245645_SpotGold_20190718_20_53.png.3dbef94fdcfd7cffc4de4da7dcb21b40.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

We can all see what Gold has done in the past 'historical price action'.

We can all see what Gold is doing now 'current price action'

The key is to determine the correct direction of the trend going forwards to the correct directional trade is placed ' 'future price action'

For me this requires any of the following:

  • Predictive Modelling
  • Assumption based Modelling
  • Anticipation (nothing wrong with using your knowledge and data to anticipate potential trends)

Of course there will be more techniques and systems but it needs to be used in the context of the timeframe you are trading in which means some of our results may be different. Price action and trends can differ on a 1m chart compared to the 'daily' chart. Ideally you want a trend and price action to align across different timeframes but in reality when you check different time frames you will see them differ and even if they do not then it can change pretty quickly.

When you look at the future of Gold you must believe it will remain the ultimate safe haven asset. I do not believe this. I do not think the younger generation will allocate as much Gold in their portfolios as the older generation did. I think the new future generation will be a Digital generation and therefore they will increase their allocation to digital assets. This is the reason that long term I am very bearish in Gold. However short term I am bullish for Gold as I think for now it still is the ultimate safe haven (others know my view on what I think will overtake it in the future but that is not for this thread). I think there is enough risk in the world right now in terms of economic and political that Gold can move up to $1500. Only time and price action will confirm this. I also think that the US Government and Trump's team are more than capable of pumping out good news and positive news to keep US Equities going up which could put a lid on any Gold move upwards and may even result in a decline or sideways range bound activity. 

Share this post


Link to post

I just wanted to take this opportunity to share some interesting articles on Gold and each can decide how accurate or credible the sources are.

 

The Relationship Between Gold and the U.S. Dollar

https://www.thebalance.com/the-relationship-between-gold-and-the-u-s-dollar-808978

Correlation Between U.S. Dollar Movement and the Price of Gold

https://www.learcapital.com/lear-learning-center/us-dollar-vs-gold-price-correlation/

If one looks back at history then during the major stock market crashes say over the past 100 years it is 'highly probable' that Gold will rise more times than it will not. This does not guarantee that it will but when we trade an asset like 'Gold' on the long side we are 'predicting', 'assuming' and 'anticipating' that it has a higher chance based on odds and probability to do so than not. Of course there is no guarantee that Gold will behave like we think it will or how we think it ought to based on history, past behaviour or even economic theory. 

Future action can take a different path to anything we have seen over the past 100 years as this is how new history is generated. I read an article (I think it was on CNBC) but cannot remember where some are thinking that Gold is going to behave like it has only twice since the World War II and go on a major bull run. The price action will test and confirm this. 

Share this post


Link to post

With Boris Johnson becoming the UK Prime Minister it has increased the odds and probability of a 'No Deal' Brexit. Along with Trump as the US President this could potentially bring uncertainty and chaos. It may not but this could be the trigger for Gold to rise. 

Gold is making recent higher lows and higher highs on the daily. It is prime for a breakout. Of course this too may not happen but the odds and probability are increasing based on the current price action and trend direction. 

1835083139_SpotGold_20190724_21_06.png.f464fe1fbd9969c15f330d7317f4256a.png

On the 'daily' Gold is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. This is a bullish signal for me and indicates a potential 'long' Gold trade.

1720985683_SpotGold_20190724_21_07.png.8829417c96d7281eb03c7a4bd85372a0.png

Share this post


Link to post

Gold for me has to break $1441 price level and surpass it for any new uptrend to take shape. If Gold cannot stay above that price level then it would represent some weakness and potential bearishness to me shorter term.

I personally think Gold will surpass $1450 very soon and head towards $1500 with October 2019 and Brexit deadline day in mind. 

Share this post


Link to post

Now we can all see what the price of Gold is.

We can all see what happened yesterday, what happened earlier on today and what is happening now.

I think what some people on IG Community are looking for (based on personal messages I get) is what some of us think will happen in the future going forwards and why? What our rationale is behind our thought process. This would then help them in any trading decisions. 

Now I could be wrong in my interpretation of what I think some are expecting but if I am right then I think it can only work if they are good enough to understand all different perspectives and thoughts and then make a decision which is right for them. What they cannot do is follow someone blindly as it will lead to failure. 

Gold has reversed today and it seems to be that it has been following Silver of late. It is Silver which has taken the recent lead when it comes to price behaviour. I would have expected it to be the other way around but nevertheless it is what it is based on the last few days. Gold seems to have support at the $1404 level (around about this level). From the 'daily' it is still making new higher lows. The key now is whether it can make a new higher high. If so then game on and if not then it is still game on but the directional trade will be different. That is all. 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold seems to pausing for breath until it decides its next move which could be the next leg upwards or a move downwards due to exhaustion. 

I think the media will play a critical role here as any major news on economic or political risk may have an impact on Gold's next move. Fear in political and economic scenarios could play into a bullish Gold move and the opposite could play into a bearish Gold move. 

Share this post


Link to post

A 25 point cut in US interest rates is expected to be announced or should I say there is a strong likelihood / potential that it will (anything can happen). Now to me if this were to happen then Gold could see short term weakness as it is non-yielding and lower interest rates will put pressure on the US Dollar. 

However markets can react like we least expect so I am prepared for the unexpected. What will be interesting is if Gold does see short term weakness due to interest rate cut then will this be the foundation for equities to move upwards? 

Share this post


Link to post

Since the end of June 19, Gold has been making a series of 'higher lows' as seen on the 'daily'. It has also been making  a series of 'higher highs' as well. The question is whether Gold can make a new 'higher high'? This is the crucial question for Gold and one which will determine its future direction. 

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×