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Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

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Gold's price action is phenomonal right now. Silver must at some point experience exceptional price action as it has a lot of catching up to do. If things continue as they are then Silver has more upside potential than Gold based on a chartist perspective. 

There is no guarantee that the US Fed is going to lower interest rates. So this current price behaviour is based on an assumption that it could in the future which makes it a very speculative trade. Lower interest rates will affect the US Dollar and Yields. As a result it could make Gold's Yield look quite attractive. However this is based on potential right now. 

Now I personally have no problem with a speculative or assumption based trade as I try and trade the price action and right now Gold's price action is enabling its price to shoot upwards literally like a 🚀 rocket when looking at the 'daily' chart. So do I care what the Fed does or does not do in the future? Not really as trading based on price action means literally that and putting aside the drama of the US Fed and what it may or may not do in the future. 

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Gold rarely behaves like this. What do the markets think is going to happen that is bad? UK leaving the EU without a deal on October 31st? Trump and China not agreeing a trade deal? Surely if China and US were going to agree a deal, this would have been done. It is dragging on because neither side wants to back down and both are holding their ground. This causes market unrest and uncertainty. 

It has hit $1412 and Silver has hit $15.57. I think Silver will need to hit at least $16.00 to keep in pace with Gold if not a lot higher. So an aggressive upward move should come for Silver. 

If Gold hit $1500 then it is going at attract a lot more capital to the asset class. This is because the trend and and momentum would be so strong that institutions would not be able to ignore it. 

It seems Gold is forming a longer term trend. I think those who are not in Gold yet should wait for the correction phases to enter. Those who are already in should use these same phases to add to their positions. Buy on any drops as the price is climbing upwards and 'pyramid' upwards. 

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I think any rhetoric from Trump and the US may dictate the way Gold is going shine or not in the coming week.

I think the article below and others will play an important factor in relation to the price action of the shiny metal.

Iran warns of risk of conflict, Trump sees scope for deal

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-iran-usa/iran-warns-of-risk-of-conflict-trump-sees-scope-for-deal-idUKKCN1TO0DW

 

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Gold is demonstrating a major breakout as shown by the 'daily' below:

1039308148_SpotGold_20190624_18_34.png.04ff6024bf085d6a15ff55084cf6545d.png

If this is a significant move upwards and if there is any substance behind this move then 'buying the dips' may prove fruitful. 

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Is the current price action of Silver indicating a potential dip down coming for Gold? After such a parabolic rise it would be normal for Gold to correct. Silver may be taking the lead and it will be interesting to see if this is the case or not. Both could simply continue going upwards. 

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On 25/06/2019 at 16:24, TrendFollower said:

Is the current price action of Silver indicating a potential dip down coming for Gold? After such a parabolic rise it would be normal for Gold to correct. Silver may be taking the lead and it will be interesting to see if this is the case or not. Both could simply continue going upwards. 

What's the news of gold??

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@gautamhait,

If you 'Google' Gold or search Gold on an internet browser, you will get the news for Gold. I have noticed that you are asking this same question time and time again on different threads to different people. 

If you want to trade Gold then you are going to have to put the time and effort in following the news for Gold yourself. I know this sounds harsh and maybe even rude. My intention is not to be rude but I just fail to understand how you can even trade any asset when you are constantly asking this question or questions similar to this time and time again. 

None of us have crystal **** and none us know what is going to happen tomorrow or in the future going forwards. 

I have some questions for you.

1) Are you actually trading Gold? 

2) If so are you 'Long' or 'Short'?

3) Which trading style are you using. Are you trying to day trade Gold or do you want to trade Gold on a longer time horizon?

The more information you provide the more someone on the IG Community can try and assist you. I will give you my personal views and thoughts. They may be right or they could just as easily be wrong.

I have no idea if you are investing in Gold physically or even investing in Gold via an ETF, investment trust or unit trust. You must provide more information and articulate what you are looking for to enable someone on the IG Community to add some value and meaningful views to you. 

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Hello All / Fellow Gold Traders

I'm new here, as of today in fact, albeit, i've been with IG for the last 7 years as well!

I actively trade Gold, that said, i've recently started to scale in on the long side. The last few months offered excellent trading opportunities.

I've since moved away from short term trading to building a longer term position here, i'll holding for months.

Looking for that b move to complete possibly end of this year, into 2020, and then i'll look to become bearish again.

Expecting a final dip in over the coming days, buy orders set at 1386-1378 zone, hope we get there.

Just my tuppence worth.

All the very best.

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@PJ19,,

I do trade precious metals whether that be Gold, Silver or Palladium from time to time but I would not say I am an active Gold trader. If Gold is trending stronger than other assets which it is been on at least two occasions when it is has moved big since August 2018 then I will trade it. 

It will be interesting to see if Gold does drop at the zone you mentioned. I agree. I am expecting a correction but I have no idea where this will go down to. It could even correct deeper down to $1350 - $1360 levels if equities are going up and economic and political news is positive rather than negative. 

Gold could just stick to Fibonacci retracement.   

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42 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@PJ19,,

I do trade precious metals whether that be Gold, Silver or Palladium from time to time but I would not say I am an active Gold trader. If Gold is trending stronger than other assets which it is been on at least two occasions when it is has moved big since August 2018 then I will trade it. 

It will be interesting to see if Gold does drop at the zone you mentioned. I agree. I am expecting a correction but I have no idea where this will go down to. It could even correct deeper down to $1350 - $1360 levels if equities are going up and economic and political news is positive rather than negative. 

Gold could just stick to Fibonacci retracement.   

Agree, 1360 is a good area as well, and again a good point to add in at those levels.

We could see Gold top out around the 1650+ zone, possibly year end/into next year, given Golds positive early year moves.

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I had a 'gut feeling' that Trump and Kim Jong-un's get together over the weekend would cause Gold to continue falling. 

It is like the US controls the market behaviour through the release of news exactly at the time it wants to. Trump is very proud of the US stock market performance and I would call it 'indirect manipulation' or 'silent manipulation' which is not obvious to the normal public around the world. 

The US decides when it wants to arrange meetings and release certain information via media channels. The traders and general public have no control over the news flow and when it will be released so the US Government have the edge in terms of calling the market direction. They know what news will be released in the future. 

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I just thought I would look back at all the past few years of Gold threads and posts and it seems clear that this so called big move in Gold simply has not come like it was being predicted on the IG Community, earlier this year, last year and even the year before that. 

Price action is king. Bitcoin has seen a few large moves come and go and even after the 80% or so corrections is far higher than what Gold has shown in the same period.

If I was a betting man (I am not) then I would bet that whilst Trump remains the President of the US, he will try his best not to allow US Equities to fall and crash to those levels associated with recessionary periods. This will impact on any potential price behaviour for Gold. 

Gold needs some serious drivers. Silver will merely follow Gold's lead. So let us put Silver to one side though I accept the premise that Silver should outperform Gold in any major bull market for Precious Metals. It needs political turmoil, economic catastrophe, major wars, major crisis, etc. Right now the US-China trade issues and Brexit seem to be the main drivers for Gold. The major western economies are not crashing at this moment in time. Will they in the future? I simply do not know. The one thing I do know is that these western economies like the US and UK will do everything in their power to ensure their economies do not crash and experience major historical like recessions. This will slow the pace of any major Gold bull market in my opinion.

All one can do is trade Gold based on its current price action and their still is an opportunity to go 'Long' Gold on the dips and trade it on upwards moves which it has been making since August 2018. 

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@TrendFollower

Yes, I think this could be one of those dips. So long as support holds @ 1381 this could be a great chance to get in to the Gold trade, personally I would give it 24 Hrs or so to see if it tests that support.

xauusd-h1-ig-group-limited.png

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@Foxy,

Those with a long term trading strategy for Gold can use the dips to top up and add to their existing positions. They can pyramid upwards.

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Hello Folks,

Looks like we are just about to complete the low of the wave e move, at or around the 1400/1397 level. That's where i have, well, what i consider to be my last buying opportunities before we head out of this zone, to higher, and sustained levels over the coming months.

This has been an accumulation period for me (to the upside), i plan to hold this position into 2020.

Anyone short, please beware, this next move higher should start very soon.

All the very best, and as always just my personal opinion.

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@PJ19,

The truth is I do not know what is going to happen to Gold tomorrow net alone next year. When I look at the 'daily' chart and zoom out then what I see is that these range bound moves can last longer than one thinks. Also every time it has happened since around 2015 has been followed by a downward move. Now I am not suggesting that will happen to Gold after this current price action as history does not have to be repeated and there is now rule or law that states it must. 

For anyone not long Gold, I would wait for the confirmed breakout to the upside before entering. If the next big move is downwards, those who were discussing shorting it will have been bang on the money. I personally do not set targets for holding a trade. It is until the trend changes. By all means hold a winning position but why plan holding till 2020?

Hold it until the market gives you a clear reason to sell it. Hold it until the trend changes downwards. Hold it until technical analysis provides you with signals and indicators to sell. 

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Big gains are made over bigger periods, of time.

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For sure, once price is above, let's say, 1437, then that's what i would consider as a long green light.

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@PJ19,

Exactly right. You are the only one who has stated the obvious in all the time I have been on the IG Community. Letting your winners run will maximise the profit for your trading portfolio. Now if you use leverage effectively then the daily charges will be neither here or there.

Using leverage effectively and letting your winners run will enable you to ride the biggest trends in your chosen asset as long as you have got the directional movement correct. 

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Good to hear.

Even in this trending market, which i see as a bear market rally. I will keep my long positions intact throughout this rally, those long positions are now set in stone, unless price tells me to change my mind otherwise.

I will however add to those positions but only at key levels on this b move up.

I'm overall bearish Gold long term, but expect a high over the next few months, possibly into next year. Then i'll be looking for the decline to commence to new lows.  That's where the big rewards are made, on the way down. Which would be down into the zone of the previous wave 4 move on the way up. But that's over the coming years if you plot it on a monthly chart.

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@PJ19,

I too am bearish on Gold 'Long Term'. I just cannot see in a digital age and digital revolution taking place that the future generations are going to have as much Gold in their portfolio as the older generations.

I too think that short term Gold may go up with all the political and economic uncertainty and risk but longer term I see it value declining as the younger generation allocate their capital to alternative assets to Gold. 

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Gold for me is still in an upward trend for now when one looks at the 'daily' chart. I include it below for your viewing.  It shows that Gold is still trading above its 'daily' 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. If it breaks below its 20 DMA on the 'daily' then there is the potential for a larger drop down towards its 'daily' 50 DMA. The trend to me looks like it is weakening and there is some range bound activity once the market decides which direction it wants to go in next which for me will be depending on the US Dollar along with 'Political and Economic' risk / news. 

127566786_SpotGold_20190715_21_45.png.ae307755c1bedc659978b50d060ccfcb.png

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Silver seems to be more in a more bullish mood compared to Gold. Platinum is too.

Right now I have no conviction either way on whether Gold will go up or down. The only way one can try and get a feel on future direction is by following the US Dollar and looking out for any 'Risk On / Risk Off' situations such as equities tumbling down, potential war conflicts, economic recessions, political mayhem, etc. 

When one looks at the chart some could see a weakening trend upwards leading to selling and a downward move. Others could argue that Gold is consolidating before its next move upwards. I would not want to go 'Long' or 'Short' at this juncture and would prefer to merely wait until the price action confirms the directional move as this is the only way you can stack the odds and probability in your favour should you choose to trade Gold by trading in the direction of Gold's price rather than against it. 

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