Jump to content

Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

Recommended Posts

There you go. Gold finally hits the 'blue rectangle' zone that I was anticipating. 

894049633_SpotGold_20200102_13_55.png.b28f578d9fbeed19dda366c49b69f77b.png

It is moving towards a price point in which it could reverse and turn downwards or simply blast through it. This will determine the bullishness and strength of this current price action and trend manifestation. 

Share this post


Link to post

There you go Gold has found the 'backdrop / narrative' which has led it to blast through the 'blue rectangle.

President Trump and the US have obliged. I was thinking that it was only a matter of time before Trump and the US got involved in some form of military conflict and there you go.

The story is there for Gold to go up, Bonds to go up and Indices to go down. Oil will obviously go up too in this military conflict. I think there will be a lot of media coverage with the focus on Iran and then you have the North Korea backdrop of missile testing.

This is all setting up Gold for a big move. 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold continues its upward drive amidst political and military uncertainty which has spread across the globe. This is the narrative which Gold should in theory thrive on. It is so far. 

I am expecting at some point for Gold to arrive back in the 'blue rectangle' zone which could be a chance to either top up or even enter if you not already trading Gold before a potentially big move towards $1700 should things not improve with US and Iran. 

727449474_SpotGold_20200106_06_53.png.8536a46f4b83ef529ca2ead7de3b4ed8.png

Share this post


Link to post

I was not expecting the possibility of the turn back down into the 'blue rectangle' starting so early. For me this is a strong indicator as the earlier and quicker it goes and fills the gap the quicker and earlier it can continue its upward move. 

704739444_SpotGold_20200106_17_56.png.721257846a8f3a1de0e1d63370ea990f.png

Once this has played out then it could be time to fasten your seat belts whilst the US-Iran tensions are milked to the maximum by the media. This will just amplify the narrative and tone which short term is going to lead the Gold price higher in my view. 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold in its 5 th wave up...This is a pull back to fill the o/n gap....Think Gold will top at $1660 or so......

Share this post


Link to post

just wondering, how often do price gaps in gold get left unfilled ?

Capture gold.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

@cheviot,

Interesting. I think the price Gold tops up will be down to any political, economic and military uncertainty in the world and the fear that is portrayed by the 'experts' and media. 

If 'Risk Off' becomes a strong flavour then it will drive Gold further upwards but if not you may well be right. 

@elle,

I don't know but I think this one will be filled. I think it needs to be filled for the next positive upward price trend to continue and give it a strong foundation to push upwards. 

Of course the price action will tell confirm or reject any of my personal thoughts. 

Share this post


Link to post

I am anticipating Gold to go down towards $1551 - $1553 price range. It touched $1555 overnight so it is not far off. 

38724014_SpotGold_20200107_06_57.png.2388ad04a9a2c31144d17ad105241acd.png

Share this post


Link to post
On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 21:25, elle said:

just wondering, how often do price gaps in gold get left unfilled ?

Capture gold.PNG

gap has just been closed

Share this post


Link to post

@elle,

Yes Gap has been closed but as the US Government, President Trump and the Media bounce from trying to keep the peace with Iran to military action and retaliation, Gold could swing in both directions!

This reminds me of Trump and North Korea /  Trump and China trade talks. There is no definitive stance or outcome one way or another and it just keeps dragging on and on, thus leading to price swings in assets. It creates volatility through 'storytelling', 'backdrop' and 'narrative'.

Though Gap has been filled due to the narrative given out by Trump's speech last night, Gold continues to go down. 

1333312115_SpotGold_20200109_06_55.thumb.png.eb2ff9d2433dbd56975fbf216c9b5c47.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

With the US announcing to the media that US-China trade deal will be signed around 15th January 2020 then this could be causing the current weakness in Gold right now. 

It will be interesting to see the price action for Gold after the US-China trade deal is signed and announced to the markets. 

Share this post


Link to post

Gold seems to be consolidating at current price levels before it decides which direction to move in. I personally think it will all be down to economic/political/corporate risk. If earnings in the US are reported stronger and interest rates remain the same, I can see Gold moving sideways within a trading range.

For Gold to move upwards and drive to new highs it needs large risks and large shocks to the major economies around the world with a big dose of uncertainty and 'Risk Off' environment.

529429651_SpotGold_20200124_07_19.thumb.png.90e5ceaba9063d10381513739a151e6a.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@SPITFIRE898,

We shall find out tomorrow and during the rest of the week. If Gold hits $1600 then it could lead to significant buying pressure in the 'Yellow Metal'.  

Share this post


Link to post

Doesnt even  look like we even see 1588 now after monday eh? I bought at 84 after making 150 back out of 1800 loss with oil. Same as october it always goes against me lol

Share this post


Link to post

@Chazza69,

It seems like you entry/exit needs a bit of work. Of course you cannot win on every trade so accepting losses is crucial but it is whether we can learn from our losses which is important. 

Once you create a set of rules defined by some substance it may increase your chances of success. You may be interested in having a look at my Trading Plan and Trend Following threads. They may offer you some snippets here and there to help you. 

My mantra is to trade 'Strongest Trending Assets' at any given time. The question you have to ask is whether Gold was the 'Strongest Trending Asset' at the point in which you entered the trade? How did you make the decision to trade at 84? What signals/indicators did you use in your decision making process? Even when you use signals/indicators your trade can still fail but over a period of time if you have a sound trading strategy and robust trading system then it can help to tilt the odds in your favour and increase your probability of partaking in successful/profitable trades. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
8 hours ago, Chazza69 said:

Doesnt even  look like we even see 1588 now after monday eh? I bought at 84 after making 150 back out of 1800 loss with oil. Same as october it always goes against me lol

Give it time ... seems like all commodities fall when dollar rises because more expensive to buy.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

correct, people forget the commodities are like FX and are actually  pairs, gold priced in US dollars vs the US dollar, this is why it's not really correct to label chart levels as dollar amounts but as 'handles'. But if the dollar is going up and gold is going up then the chart stays even.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

Im a newb tried bar trend patterns failed  but thats not what done me it was the oil tanker last year.  Then opted to gold with some help expecting 1600 before dec that flopped then the oil this year to go up the virus hits.  So i believed all traders would buy in to gold atleast and that didnt last long.  My friend told me us dollar basket usually goes up gold goes down vice versa.  But i have witnessed them both going same way.  Then you have follow  the trends well weve seen whats happenend there. You have to understand and read and understand on whats going on in the world but you cant predict these markets its just chance.  Ive won more on tv with the casino  i think thats my intellegence level sadly.

  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post
11 minutes ago, Chazza69 said:

Im a newb tried bar trend patterns failed  but thats not what done me it was the oil tanker last year.  Then opted to gold with some help expecting 1600 before dec that flopped then the oil this year to go up the virus hits.  So i believed all traders would buy in to gold atleast and that didnt last long.  My friend told me us dollar basket usually goes up gold goes down vice versa.  But i have witnessed them both going same way.  Then you have follow  the trends well weve seen whats happenend there. You have to understand and read and understand on whats going on in the world but you cant predict these markets its just chance.  Ive won more on tv with the casino  i think thats my intellegence level sadly.

 

For the vast majority of people the only chance of making money is buy-and-hold a relatively diverse portfolio (e.g. S&P 500 tracker) for many years.  Don't feel bad about this.  Every financial adviser you ever meet will tell you spread betting is a bad idea and will recommend you go for a managed fund or an ETF.  Seriously, the vast majority of traders lose and even the lucky few always have periods of significant losses.  Sometimes I wonder why anyone bothers trying to trade at all.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
24 minutes ago, Chazza69 said:

Im a newb tried bar trend patterns failed  but thats not what done me it was the oil tanker last year.  Then opted to gold with some help expecting 1600 before dec that flopped then the oil this year to go up the virus hits.  So i believed all traders would buy in to gold atleast and that didnt last long.  My friend told me us dollar basket usually goes up gold goes down vice versa.  But i have witnessed them both going same way.  Then you have follow  the trends well weve seen whats happenend there. You have to understand and read and understand on whats going on in the world but you cant predict these markets its just chance.  Ive won more on tv with the casino  i think thats my intellegence level sadly.

 

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

For the vast majority of people the only chance of making money is buy-and-hold a relatively diverse portfolio (e.g. S&P 500 tracker) for many years.  Don't feel bad about this.  Every financial adviser you ever meet will tell you spread betting is a bad idea and will recommend you go for a managed fund or an ETF.  Seriously, the vast majority of traders lose and even the lucky few always have periods of significant losses.  Sometimes I wonder why anyone bothers trying to trade at all.

Might be worth considering the distinction between gambling, trading and investing. All three are completely different and should not be confused as being the same or being equal. One is a fun pass time with no real experience necessary for the majority, one is a part time concern for the safe allocation of savings while the other is a career which needs therefore a greater degree of background knowledge and learning input.

Trading can definitely be learnt but takes the most time and resources of the three and the under estimation of which is the reason most fail rather than any lack of intelligence or commitment. 

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

 

Might be worth considering the distinction between gambling, trading and investing. All three are completely different and should not be confused as being the same or being equal. One is a fun pass time with no real experience necessary for the majority, one is a part time concern for the safe allocation of savings while the other is a career which needs therefore a greater degree of background knowledge and learning input.

Trading can definitely be learnt but takes the most time and resources of the three and the under estimation of which is the reason most fail rather than any lack of intelligence or commitment. 

 

 

No different from going to Vegas with a 'plan' or having a 'plan' when playing poker.  I've no idea how anybody could consistently make profits day trading unless they are spending thousands on tools such as scanners, news feeds and the like (i.e. working for a prop trading company).  It's just impossible.  The market only trends 20% of the time and the rest of the time your 15 min, 1 hour charts are going up and down without rhyme or reason.

Edited by dmedin
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

 

No different from going to Vegas with a 'plan' or having a 'plan' when playing poker.  I've no idea how anybody could consistently make profits day trading unless they are spending thousands on tools such as scanners, news feeds and the like (i.e. working for a prop trading company).  It's just impossible.  The market only trends 20% of the time and the rest of the time your 15 min, 1 hour charts are going up and down without rhyme or reason.

yes we know you have no idea, you've told us all a thousand times. but the thing is though you never did come up with an actual plan did you, it's always on the 'to do' list. 🧐

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
16 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes we know you have no idea, you've told us all a thousand times. but the thing is though you never did come up with an actual plan did you, it's always on the 'to do' list. 🧐

 

I've no idea, because I haven't found a single day trading 'system' that works reliably.  So I will have to try and get results on the longer term and confine myself to that.

Share this post


Link to post
42 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I've no idea, because I haven't found a single day trading 'system' that works reliably.  So I will have to try and get results on the longer term and confine myself to that.

The time frame you choose is part of your plan, it doesn't exclude having a plan. Well, now we've solved your problem we can look forward in the near future to hearing how you've turned your trading around 🥳🥳🥳

  • Great! 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post

Silver on the 'daily' is looking very bearish. 

1504395836_SpotSilver_20200128_21_08.thumb.png.522ef8c8534865461052abbfb2e9e615.png

It has gone below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's on the 'daily' and I fear it has its 200 DMA in target. 

1085772241_SpotSilver_20200128_21.08-2.thumb.png.2ab414ba9c2381c039ed0bb0d7cae6ad.png

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post

If Gold cannot take out its recent high and cannot stay above $1600 then I think it will struggle to create a new upward trend at this moment in time. The Corona virus may help it cause but otherwise I think a political/economical/consumer shock is required where businesses are struggling with recessions looming for Gold to really kick on. It needs fear in world markets and that is what the safe haven thinking feeds on. 

When I look at Gold on the daily I am seeing a 'spring type feel with the coil ready to spring upwards' but just waiting for the right narrative and backdrop to do so. This is why I am investing in a Gold investment fund (for those interested I have a thread open on that) which may be of interest to investors.

From a trading perspective Gold is not one of the 'Strongest Trending Assets' right now so it is not one where I want my trading capital tied into. I want the allocation of my trading capital to be in those assets which give me the greatest chance of profiting which requires strong and sharp moves in a particular direction (up or down). Gold is not showing me that right now. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@Mercury,

I was reading your latest post on your thread and I agree with your view that Gold will need a catalyst and that catalyst will most likely result in stocks declining. That catalyst will most likely be some form of negative news in relation to economics, business confidence, political risks, etc. 

Share this post


Link to post

Don't you have a bullish feeling about gold?  There's an RSI divergence (price is making higher highs but RSI isn't, although it is in the process of building so it might yet make a higher high on RSI), but it looks real bullish candle-wise on the weekly chart.  If it breaks out and closes above 1611 it could be in for another 'growth spurt'.

1222196153_SpotGold_20200201_21_56.thumb.png.dda35b2b24aeb44a4e4964edb290a7bb.png

Edited by dmedin

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      8,862
    • Total Posts
      48,576
    • Total Members
      61,501
    Newest Member
    haks22
    Joined 31/03/20 07:51
  • Posts

    • @dangibharat, ISA is a tax free wrapper where any gains in your ISA account are free UK 'Income Tax' and UK 'Capital Gains Tax'.  Before opening any account may I suggest you spend some quality time conducting research as this information is available online. Also reading and research is a must for any successful investor. It will help you build up a good level of knowledge.  All you had to do is 'Google' it. You would have found out the answer. The fact that you did not and then spent the time asking this on IG Community is slightly worrying. Always try and find out the answer yourself using the 'Internet'. If you cannot then I am sure someone here on IG Community will be able to assist.  Please do not take my post the wrong way. I am trying to get you into the right mindset for becoming a self sufficient investor who relies less on other people and can obtain basic and simple information themselves.   
    • FTSE and S&P daily. Dow and Dax H4 charts;  
    • S&P drives up to Thursday's high. US Oil bounces up off support. Gold continues to consolidate.
×
×