Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

[TrendFollower 584]

If you look at both Gold and Silver right now then Gold seems ready for its next upward leg yet Silver is showing the opposite. It seems like it is ready for a downward move. 

I think both are waiting to see how the major equity indices perform before deciding upon its next course. 

 

 

[elle 185]

On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:46, elle said:

That level  (yellow circled)  has "previous". Price often reacts to levels it's reacted to before

price reacted  , here's the update

[TrendFollower 584]

I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows:

• Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade
• Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade

So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. 

Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently.

There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.

[TrendFollower 584]

I still believe the longer term trend is still (for now) in tact for both Gold and Silver on the 'Long' side. Therefore, it is likely that I will be looking to re-enter both very shortly should the upward move resume. 

Also, I think the next two months will be very volatile in the markets in general with Brexit et al and so I will be keeping an eye on the price action for both Gold and Silver for sure. 

 

[elle 185]

On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:42, elle said:

price reacted  , here's the update

 I see IG now have "Short Gold "  as the "Trade of the Week"    !!!!!!!!

[elle 185]

Saw this with a suggestion of a potential "Cup and Handle"

[TrendFollower 584]

For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change.

The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc. 

[Caseynotes 1,369]

Interesting Gold found support at the prior low around 1277 and bounced, this was the level sited that the IG 'trade of the week' needed to break to the down side in order to trigger the Gold short.

[TrendFollower 584]

@Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week. 

[cryptotrader 132]

theres a short gold video on today blog as well. Like I said prior - I think its time for a slight mean reversal.

 

[Caseynotes 1,369]

Same IMF report boosts Gold this morning driving price well away from the IG 'trade of the week' entry trigger (break of support 1270).

1 hour chart;

[TrendFollower 584]

@Caseynotes,

Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.

[Caseynotes 1,369]

True enough @TrendFollower though it was a reasonable call looking to short if price broke down through an important support level (blue line). But not to be, for the moment at least.

[cryptotrader 132]

22 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@Caseynotes,

Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.

what does that even mean...

[TrendFollower 584]

@cryptotrader,

If you look at the price action along with other indicators such as volume, momentum, moving averages, etc. then it gives us an idea (that is all it is) of what may happen going forwards. So for example the link between rising / falling volume on any price moves upwards / downwards, etc.

I think the better traders will create their own trades of the week. If one has to rely on IG's trades of the week then to me it infers that they are not putting in the ground work themselves to identify potential trading opportunities. Yes on occasions I accept IG may highlight a trade that one may not have considered and that is fine but I think there are more than enough trading opportunities out there in the major asset classes of equities, FX and commodities.

[TrendFollower 584]

Right now there is just as much chance that Gold resumes it next move upwards and hits $1300 as there is that it continues its move downwards and goes below $1270 level. No one knows though the longer term trend since August 2018 is still upwards for now.

It seems that news released in the media (such as growth updates on certain countries like US, China, etc.) along with sentiment will play a part in Gold's next move. If indices continue moving upwards then I feel that Gold could see a decline and of course the US Dollar will play a significant role in Gold's price action.

[TrendFollower 584]

I would like to see Gold clear $1294 level to confirm its upward trend and for Silver $15.72 level. Until this happens any move cannot be confirmed as a continuation of the upward trend in my personal opinion. 

Both Gold and Silver were due a break from the rally we saw but the bulls will want to see continuation of that rally and this drop may provide a strong foundation and base for any larger upward move in both precious metals. With equities declining then it may just give the push required for the next move upwards in both. 

Such drops are seen as healthy and are absolutely required to take any potential rally in both Gold and Silver seriously. Otherwise you would see the 'Bubble Bitcoin' chart! 😀 

[elle 185]

On ‎21‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:02, elle said:

 I see IG now have "Short Gold "  as the "Trade of the Week"    !!!!!!!!

 

On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:42, elle said:

price reacted  , here's the update

 

[TrendFollower 584]

Gold seems to be defending the $1280 level rather well for now. 

[Guest Contact]

Hello

is it possible to get your email so I can contact you? 

[Guest Email]

Do you have a email I can reach you on? 

[cryptotrader 132]

1 hour ago, Guest Email said:

Do you have a email I can reach you on? 

I mean... this is a forum. Message on here?

[Caseynotes 1,369]

It's strange but when you say you'd rather stick with private messages on the forum rather than give out private contact details they suddenly lose all interest. I wonder why that is.

[gautamhait 0]

On 25/01/2019 at 08:49, cryptotrader said:

I mean... this is a forum. Message on here?

[mod edit: I'd advise against sharing personal details on public forums - personal contact details removed. ]

[Caseynotes 1,369]

Doesn't look like that IG 'trade of the week' is going to get triggered.

[TrendFollower 584]

I am assuming the ‘Guest Contact’ and ‘Guest E-Mail’ are the same person and were after my email address? Please can you confirm whose email address you are after?

I get a lot of people contact me on IG through messages within the IG platform. Please feel free to do so if it is me you are referring to. I would not give out my personal email address on threads and posts but you can communicate with me or anyone else through IG’s messaging service which still remains private just like email.

[TrendFollower 584]

Gold and Silver have just ‘popped’. The daily chart was building towards this and seem to indicate this potential move. Not sure how long it will last. 

[gautamhait 0]

1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

Gold and Silver have just ‘popped’. The daily chart was building towards this and seem to indicate this potential move. Not sure how long it will last. 

Sir long gold

 

[TrendFollower 584]

Yes I am long both Gold and Silver if that is what you mean.

[TrendFollower 584]

I see Gold and Silver's price action being on the upside at least until the Brexit situation is more clearer and the US Shutdown matter is closer to resolution.

This could be next week to be honest but also next month!

I think Gold and Silver long plays are good trades during this period. They could still go wrong but with sound risk management (stop losses) and a clear exit plan one should be able to profit until sentiment changes and the trend reverses. We never quite saw a trend reversal on the last correction so this is resuming the rally. However, I have seen such moves entice buyers and then large drop comes so be aware and careful.