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Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

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If you look at both Gold and Silver right now then Gold seems ready for its next upward leg yet Silver is showing the opposite. It seems like it is ready for a downward move. 

I think both are waiting to see how the major equity indices perform before deciding upon its next course. 

 

 

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On ‎06‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:46, elle said:

That level  (yellow circled)  has "previous". Price often reacts to levels it's reacted to before

Capture gold.PNG

price reacted  , here's the update

Capture gold.PNG

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I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows:

  • Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade
  • Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade

So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. 

Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently.

There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.

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I still believe the longer term trend is still (for now) in tact for both Gold and Silver on the 'Long' side. Therefore, it is likely that I will be looking to re-enter both very shortly should the upward move resume. 

Also, I think the next two months will be very volatile in the markets in general with Brexit et al and so I will be keeping an eye on the price action for both Gold and Silver for sure. 

 

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On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:42, elle said:

price reacted  , here's the update

Capture gold.PNG

 I see IG now have "Short Gold "  as the "Trade of the Week"    !!!!!!!!

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Saw this with a suggestion of a potential "Cup and Handle"

Capture gld.PNG

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For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change.

The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc. 

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Interesting Gold found support at the prior low around 1277 and bounced, this was the level sited that the IG 'trade of the week' needed to break to the down side in order to trigger the Gold short.

image.thumb.png.fb6964d34d1605a771642a2aa85d906f.png

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@Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week. 

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theres a short gold video on today blog as well. Like I said prior - I think its time for a slight mean reversal.

 

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Same IMF report boosts Gold this morning driving price well away from the IG 'trade of the week' entry trigger (break of support 1270).

1 hour chart;

image.thumb.png.7e6d8760e0a32e37a21e222d98c99cbc.png

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@Caseynotes,

Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.

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True enough @TrendFollower though it was a reasonable call looking to short if price broke down through an important support level (blue line). But not to be, for the moment at least.

image.thumb.png.cf5b57e70018f847ae77cc33ccb52784.png

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22 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@Caseynotes,

Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.

what does that even mean...

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@cryptotrader,

If you look at the price action along with other indicators such as volume, momentum, moving averages, etc. then it gives us an idea (that is all it is) of what may happen going forwards. So for example the link between rising / falling volume on any price moves upwards / downwards, etc.

I think the better traders will create their own trades of the week. If one has to rely on IG's trades of the week then to me it infers that they are not putting in the ground work themselves to identify potential trading opportunities. Yes on occasions I accept IG may highlight a trade that one may not have considered and that is fine but I think there are more than enough trading opportunities out there in the major asset classes of equities, FX and commodities.

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Right now there is just as much chance that Gold resumes it next move upwards and hits $1300 as there is that it continues its move downwards and goes below $1270 level. No one knows though the longer term trend since August 2018 is still upwards for now.

It seems that news released in the media (such as growth updates on certain countries like US, China, etc.) along with sentiment will play a part in Gold's next move. If indices continue moving upwards then I feel that Gold could see a decline and of course the US Dollar will play a significant role in Gold's price action.

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I would like to see Gold clear $1294 level to confirm its upward trend and for Silver $15.72 level. Until this happens any move cannot be confirmed as a continuation of the upward trend in my personal opinion. 

Both Gold and Silver were due a break from the rally we saw but the bulls will want to see continuation of that rally and this drop may provide a strong foundation and base for any larger upward move in both precious metals. With equities declining then it may just give the push required for the next move upwards in both. 

Such drops are seen as healthy and are absolutely required to take any potential rally in both Gold and Silver seriously. Otherwise you would see the 'Bubble Bitcoin' chart! 😀 

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On ‎21‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:02, elle said:

 I see IG now have "Short Gold "  as the "Trade of the Week"    !!!!!!!!

 

On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 15:42, elle said:

price reacted  , here's the update

Capture gold.PNG

 

Capture gld.PNG

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Guest Contact

Hello

is it possible to get your email so I can contact you? 

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Guest Email

Do you have a email I can reach you on? 

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1 hour ago, Guest Email said:

Do you have a email I can reach you on? 

I mean... this is a forum. Message on here?

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It's strange but when you say you'd rather stick with private messages on the forum rather than give out private contact details they suddenly lose all interest. I wonder why that is.

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On 25/01/2019 at 08:49, cryptotrader said:

I mean... this is a forum. Message on here?

[mod edit: I'd advise against sharing personal details on public forums - personal contact details removed. ]

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Doesn't look like that IG 'trade of the week' is going to get triggered.

355516951_XAUUSD()Daily.thumb.png.817c2f42ed6581fa0f0fc5eca6b56e53.png

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I am assuming the ‘Guest Contact’ and ‘Guest E-Mail’ are the same person and were after my email address? Please can you confirm whose email address you are after?

I get a lot of people contact me on IG through messages within the IG platform. Please feel free to do so if it is me you are referring to. I would not give out my personal email address on threads and posts but you can communicate with me or anyone else through IG’s messaging service which still remains private just like email.

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Gold and Silver have just ‘popped’. The daily chart was building towards this and seem to indicate this potential move. Not sure how long it will last. 

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1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

Gold and Silver have just ‘popped’. The daily chart was building towards this and seem to indicate this potential move. Not sure how long it will last. 

Sir long gold

 

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I see Gold and Silver's price action being on the upside at least until the Brexit situation is more clearer and the US Shutdown matter is closer to resolution.

This could be next week to be honest but also next month!

I think Gold and Silver long plays are good trades during this period. They could still go wrong but with sound risk management (stop losses) and a clear exit plan one should be able to profit until sentiment changes and the trend reverses. We never quite saw a trend reversal on the last correction so this is resuming the rally. However, I have seen such moves entice buyers and then large drop comes so be aware and careful. 

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    • yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon. Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch.  Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.
    • @Caseynotes, One must remember that on average it can take around 18 months from when the treasury yield curve flips or inverts to the start of a recession.  People talk about Dr. Copper but another commodity that it is worth keeping an eye on is Lumber. When housing construction begins to drop then that can be one of many indicators to have a look at. Others are inflation, interest rate direction, wage growth, unemployment, etc. There are many well documents indicators which signal a potential recession is around the corner.  From a trading perspective one should not worry as long as one is comfortable shorting. Those who are not may struggle to consistently make enough profits during a recessionary period. 
    • @Caseynotes, Yes that is right. I have seen some calling the recession for the past two to three years! They have been calling it as if it is around the corner. Then when it does not come they move the goal posts via obscure technical analysis. When one challenges it, one is deemed negative or a naysayer.  Corrections happen large and small. Investors sell investments to take profits. This has been happening since the markets began. Prices go up and down. Prices are bullish and bearish. Of course trading sentiment plays a big part but for me following the price action and letting the price action lead you to a trading decision is key. Trying to wait for the price action to follow your view and then changing the narrative by giving technical reasoning when it does not follow your view in my opinion will lead to missing out on trading opportunities.  For a sound trader, recessions, should not be feared but welcomed. If one understands how prices react during recessions then one can prepare their trading strategy for this outcome but for when it happens and not before.   
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