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Superdry-ied up retail results - recession, recession, recession!


Mercury

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Another week another set of retail results with overpaid CEOs claiming unseasonable weather is to blame rather than themselves or the global slow down.  This time it is the turn of SuperDry and apparently warm weather hit sales of under layer hoodies and jackets...  People are talking about global warming as the end of all things but I didn't think it would be used as a scapegoat for CEO under-performance.  OK he didn't actual cite global warming but he might as well have...  And now the founder is throwing stones at the management, having recently left the Board, hmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46535682

Oh and it looks like consumers have stopped buying mobile phones as well...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46535702

If retail is a bell-weather for the economy then look out!  I haven't heard a good news story on retail for several years.  And has anyone else been getting massive pre Christmas promo action from Amazon..?  And did anyone notice that Cyber Monday morphed into Cyber week this year..?  I'm betting Christmas sales discounts are going to be massive this year and we all know what happens to retailers profits when they do that!  But it's ok because economists consensus is that a recession wont happen until 2020 so we can all rest easy then...

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Perfect break and retest of the channel line there @elle followed by a massive break-away gap in early Oct and SuperDry returns to where it all started...  Mind you it isn't a bad brand or a bad company so in due course it could be an interesting buy, but only after the dust has settled...

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Not clear on what I'm looking at there @Caseynotes.  Is it %growth rates?  Month on month?  Month vs prior year?  As an analyst it is important to look at the data in several ways to assess what it might be telling you.  But look at the graph below, trend really doesn't say much but then it is an index too.  One thing to note, there have been several recessions along this trend line but you would be hard but to identify it from this.  Governments don't generally like to issue bad data...  Lies, **** lies and statistics sort of thing.

UKretailsaleshistory.png.fac8ecd545f1cefc18ea43401721f23e.png

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