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EURUSD Retrace rally then big drop

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End of 2018 and time to take stock (Short HaHa!).  I have been waiting for a big stocks Short opportunity for several years and finally it looks like it is arriving.  It could be the biggest Shorting opportunity any of us have ever seen.  Some have pointed to Bitcoin but that was not a credible opportunity in my opinion, unless you are a pure gambler.  Patience is certainly a virtue with this trading game if you are seeking to catch a big move and it has been on FX too.  Having missed the first bearish wave down from April 2018, I have been watching for the probable retrace to get Short for the big wave 3 down.  I am also interested in swing trading the retrace and have been attempting to do this for the last few months of this year but each time a possible rally presented itself it broke down to set another lower low.  It is very hard to catch a wave 1 termination but another possible turning point is currently presenting itself.  Will this be the one?  And what might happen next?

I regularly relook at my entire assessment to see if anything has changed materially and now seems like a good time to relook at FX.  The monthly chart shows the long term perspective and the potential for a long Bearish move, once the retrace rally is out of the way.  The Euro had been on a charge vs USD since its inception in 2002 (well the paper currency launch) but peaked in 2008 during the Credit Crunch and since then, as with most currencies, has been steadily losing value against USD.  This also comes during a period of increasing turmoil in the EU (in particular for the Euro zone), which has been well covered in other threads but in short the Euro zone has some insurmountable (in my opinion) structural problems including a disparity between the various country economies (the likes of Greece and Portugal urgently need to devalue and Italy and Spain have major issues), inability to operate a true central bank and a wide range of individual country credit rating (resulting in a lack of uniform debt cost).  Add to that political turmoil that is unlikely to be resolved any time soon (not least the migrant issue) and the Euro could not only fall heavily but could actually unravel just as the previous iteration, the ERM, did.  So from both a fundamentals and technical perspective I see the Bearish trend continuing in 2019.  I fully expect the inception levels of sub $0.90 to be reached and quite possibly the theoretical all time lows of $0.63, if not oblivion.

But what about that pesky retrace?  Not much point in placing a short now unless you are willing to take a huge stop loss exposure, which I'm not.  Looking at the Weekly chart you will notice a nice head & shoulders formation in 2017 that broke out through the neckline with a large gap, that crucially remains unclosed.  I expect this to be closed in due course.  The whole of the 2017 rally is enclosed by a consolidation Triangle formation, a likely Pennant/Flag that was broken to the downside in April.  The move down since then is also enclosed in a Triangle that is now on the verge of a breakout into a rally.  I also have a credible EWT 1-5 form for the wave 1 (blue) down and I expect the rally to be an A-B-C retrace, which would confirm the overall trend is still Bearish.  I also have Positive Momentum Divergence (PMD) at the Nov wave 1 (blue) turn, which can also be seen clearly on the Daily chart.  The wave 1 (blue) also turned on a strong weekly chart pin bar, which was coincidental with the Fib 50% off the 2008 high (see Monthly chart).

Looking at the Daily chart then I can see that PMD at wave 1 (blue), which is looking strong.  The move down to the turn is enclosed in a possible ending triangle that was broken and retested (support held) and then that support zone was tested again and again held and then put in a sharp rally followed by another retrace down, which put in a higher low.  This kind of price action is typical of a consolidation phase prior to a strong wave 3 rally and now the market is poised over New Year at the crucial Weekly Chart Triangle upper line.  A breakout through this line (which is a must to confirm the retrace) that is fast and long (signature of a wave 3), maybe even with a gap through the resistance, would tee up a run to a wave A of an A-B-C that could ultimately terminate with a retest of the breakout zone of the Pennant (circa 12,300) and the Fib 76/78% but we will have to see how the move progresses to assess the likely turning point back into the Bear.  While the retrace may be lucrative it is always risky trading counter trend, especially if you do not deploy swing trading techniques, as trend trading often does not work, unless you get an early A-B and a long C trend.  The bigger opportunity is clearly tracking this potential road map to spot the next Bearish phase.  However as a swing trader I am more than happy to trade this and related FX pairs and am already Long from previous lows.  My trading strategy is to hold those further down Longs for the termination of the A-B-C move and to add on key breakouts for a shorter term trade to the Wave A turn.  I will not trade the Wave B but wait to see if I can spot the turn back into the final wave C move and pyramid this to the end of the whole retrace before reversing into the Bear move.


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@TrendFollower I remember reading about some so called high flyers being arrested for manipulating the price of Bitcoin last year. Is it more risky because it is an unregulated digital currency and what drives the price is questionable? I have never traded bitcoin due to point/profit/loss ratio is too hot for my account. However, I do agree that if the price is trending one way or the other and the TA stacks up, then it is not a pure chance gamble.

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Post the flash crash dust settling it seems that the trend may now have finally reversed.  Interestingly while GBP and AUD (spectacularly) dropped to new lows, EUR did not and wasn't much impacted by the Flash (note this is one reason I prefer EURUSD because, due to its size, it is less prone to such wild volatility).  As with DX EURUSD seems to have posted a turn and small 1-2 retrace and is now heading north.  I am Long at the retrace and now waiting to see if the upper Weekly Chart Triangle resistance line will be broken through this time.  If it is then we may finally see 12,300.  After that, Bombs Away!


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As mentioned in my GBPUSD post, EURUSD went Bearish after the USNFP but I held my Longs despite this as I didn't believe it was a trend change and sure enough an almost equal rally ensued.  Bit of a shame it didn't quite put in a higher high before the weekend close but overall it looks to me like a 1-2 retrace is done followed by a smaller scale 1-2 preparatory to a faster wave 3 rally to come next week to finally breakout of the Triangle resistance line.


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  • 2 weeks later...

As with GBP (see other thread) EURUSD dropped in the run up to the Brexit vote but unlike GBP EUR did not rally much.  We have a bit more this morning, which may bode well for a more sustained rally in keeping with my ongoing larger retrace rally projection. However I am a bit more cautious with the Euro as there are other real economic and political headwinds that will, in my view, pull the Euro down long term, maybe even to oblivion.  I am cautiously counter trend Long but less aggressively than with GBP.

Otherwise the set up is very similar to GBP and remains as I have posted previously.  If price remains above the Weekly Triangle line and then rallies away we should see a clear A-B-C retrace from the current period of consolidation.  However I currently do not think the Euro will rally as hard as GBP.  See my EURGBP Triad thread for more on this.


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EURUSD has been much more sluggish than GBP to get going into a rally but looks to maybe be at the beginning of a move.  This is not a surprise to me as the third pair in the Triad was showing GBP strength (see Triad thread).  I am now expecting EUR to play catch up or at worst maintain pace with GBP, which basically means a rally on this pair.  My medium term target remains 12,300 for the full retrace rally, after a minor rally off a retest of weekly triangle line with PMD on the Hourly chart.


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Slight adjustment to the weekly Triangle line needed for the emergence of another leg down.  Price has been stopped by the short term Fib 78%, coincident with my revised weekly Triangle retest.  PMD is still intact on 1 and 4 hour charts.  This is a good point to take a flyer on a Long with a close stop.  Alternatively wait for a small 1-2 rally and retrace.  Currently the price action is consistent with a break through the Weekly Consolidation Triangle on EURGBP while GBP remains relatively strong and the rally is intact there, while GBPUSD rally remains in play my bias will be for EUR to respond likewise in due course, maybe now.



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Well, well, a strong rally off the support zone and my low risk Longs are now stop protected at break even.  We haven't seen the 1-2 retrace yet so I am waiting and watching price action on this but as soon as I see it I will look to buy the dips as I anticipate this rally going for a bit.  I am not sure at this stage whether it will be a long one to the end and turn back down or a clearer A-B-C but from these ow point holding for the medium term will be my approach.


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  • 3 weeks later...

Still waiting patiently for the EURUSD rally (ho hum!).  GBPUSD is in better shape but perhaps EURUSD put in a bullish turn late last week.  It was almost a double bottom, perhaps close enough to call it so.  There was a fairly strong Bullish pin bar, which was the 4th rejection off the Fib 82% (see 4 hourly chart) and this occurred with a PMD.  We may get a small retrace and rally, which would be a Bullish sign for me and a breakout of the Weekly Triangle line is key. 



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  • 2 weeks later...

The current rally seems to have stalled, as with GBPUSD.  Currently I see this as an EWT 1-2 retrace.  This pair may already have put in the A-B.  I am looking for a rally off key support to add to Longs.

Note this pair has not yet broken out of the Weekly Chart Triangle, which means a trend change is not confirmed for me.  Any trend change will, I think, be a large scale retrace only.  A conservative approach would be to wait for a Triangle break out.  However if the 1-2 retrace plays out a Long at a key support turn with tight stops would be fine for me.


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  • 4 weeks later...

FX has been a bit up and down to be worth trading of late but we could be coming to the end of that.  I have a short term potential ending diagonal/triangle formation that, if valid, has been broken and retested into last Friday.  A strong bound away on Sunday/Monday would be needed to confirm this.  A break back through and lower low would set up a retest of the Weekly Triangle consolidation line.


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Guest uow513

Hi Mercury, I've been following your posts for while. I have to say I admire your patience very much. EURUSD's lack of volatility has continued for a while.  All major currencies are in similar situations. Calm before the storm?

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Hi @uow513, thanks for the comment.  Perhaps it is perseverance more than patients...  I try to be patient but wish I was more so.  For me the trick is not to assume I am right when I eventually go into a contrarian position but stop protect carefully and actively.  In so doing I am aiming to live to fight another day if/when I get a reversal, which can happen a lot when stalking a major trend reversal.  US stocks is a good example of this recently.  No risk, no reward!

I persevere with a road map until it is proven incorrect, after which it is folly to stick to the initial view.  We are not quite there with USD, although it is getting close.  A break out down through key support would probably be enough for me to reverse my position.  There is a technical scenario which supports a EWT1-2 retrace having already been posted, albeit a small one.  If stocks commenced a major turn and central banks start pumping the money printing and revert to lower interest rates then all bets are off.

I anticipate an interesting few months ahead in this regard, Brexit is a side show, except insofar as it puts the focus on the EU instability.

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EURUSD may be at a turning point, certainly not far to go below to the recent low.  The triangle breakout, redrawn since my last post, has retested the breakout zone and failed to break lower.  We may yet get another retest.  A break of the overhead resistance could be swift and reveal a strong move up into a final wave C of the retrace rally I have been stalking for many months.   It always surprises me, through it shouldn't, how long it takes a move to evolve and trigger once I have identified the possibility.  Patients is certainly a virtue vital for successful trading, and one we rarely hear people talk about.


Obviously a break below the recent low requires a reassessment.



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  • 2 weeks later...

Did indeed get a rally and I got Long accordingly but what next.  Markets sometimes take off and just run and run but I am not sure we are quite there yet on this market and, as this is likely to be a medium term counter trend rally, there could be a bit of volatility yet.  At present I would not be adding to my Long positions until I see a decent bearish retrace and we may have seen the beginning of that late last week.  A break of the upper line of the consolidation Triangle is important for Bulls, after which we could see a strong run up to the indicated resistance zones.  This scenario would align to my Precious Metals scenario (see Gold post).


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The currency vs stocks relationship does not hold over the long term @Kodiak.  If you look at the respective charts there are many periods where there is no correlation at all or stocks go up while currency also goes up.  My feeling on this received wisdom is that it only seems to happen when the more important drivers are not present and the market drifts.

Much more important for me is the intrinsic driving factors in any market.  The idea that short term moves in currency has any material impact on corporate performance, and therefore stock price just doesn't track in practice.  Corporates are pretty good at managing exchange rate risk, something I used to do myself.

After the current move set (i.e. USD bearish phase prior to a major rally; precious metal bearish phase prior to a major rally; stocks bullishness a last hurrah, prior to a major crash and a related industrial commodities crash) I expect to see European markets fall heavily while their currencies also fall.  US stocks to fall while USD rallies but USD will be rallying in a flight to safety as a result of stocks (and other markets) crashing rather than being a driver of said crashes.

For stock markets in particular, and especially so these days, the key driver is sentiment rather than fundamentals of economy or the individual company valuations.  The days when sound valuation drive the markets are well behind us.  M&A and IPO valuations are off the charts ridiculous and corporates have nothing better to do with their low interest debt than buy back their own shares (at the top of the market!).  This is the kind of situation that screams sell, sell!  Just takes time to crystalise. 

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EURUSD dropped beyond the 2 previous lows, suggesting the big drop is on but until lower Weekly support is broken (and for me also that price consolidation Triangle formation) this is not clearly the case.  Price is at the bottom of an important weekly chart support zone right now, where the Bearish move has been halted.  Is this a pause before a sustained drop or a prelude to a retrace rally?  As said, a firm break of support is needed for me to switch to a Bearish footing so until then I will continue to seek to take advantage of a significant retrace rally if it comes.

The case for the retrace rally strengthens with each bearish move (counter intuitive I know).  Looking at the Weekly Chart I see the following:

  • Very strong Pos Mom Div
  • Decent support zone, price is at the bottom of this as said
  • Consolidation Triangle with a 1-5 EWT wave pattern within the Triangle - one the 1-5 completes a counter trend rally is indicated by EWT
  • However a further drop to the lower Triangle line cannot be ruled out

On the Daily chart:

  • Also have PMD
  • Other oscillators are over sold
  • Bottom of the support zone naturally but again cannot rule out a further leg lower

On the Hourly chart:

  • Again PMD
  • I have a EWT1-5 wave form down to the bottom of the support zone
  • A potential ending channel (narrowing) and a possible 1-2 bounce.

I'd like to see a breakout of the channel and a short term 1-2 bearish retrace (higher low) to confirm and I am seeing similar set ups on other related USD pairs so the scenario strength is building.


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My view on EURUSD is similar to GBPUSD except that the Wave 1 hasn't completed yet (or maybe just has?).  Of course there is an alternative scenario on this pair which has the wave 1-2 completing back in the Summer of 2018 (see weekly chart).

It could be that we have seen a so-called spinning top candle yesterday, often but not always a price action indicator of a direction change.  We also have PMD on Daily and Hourly charts and, as mentioned previously, this candle has spiked to the bottom of a strong long term support zone and bounced off.  The hourly chart shows some signs of a turning point with a potential narrowing channel breakout and retest.  However I would need to see a rally away from this point to get interested in a big way and the lower Weekly chart Triangle line is not that far below current price levels so another leg down before a turn could easily be on the cards.  I would be more confident if I saw a bounce off that line, while a breakout to the downside would suggest the earlier 1-2 is right.

Now take a look at my Weekly chart.  COT data has hit fresh negative lows at -112k and into 3 figures, which is significant.  If you look back at the recent history (see pink annotations) the Financials have got it wrong on all the major turns; this is not surprising as most of them use trend following techniques so they tend to shoot past the turns, ramping up as the market turns against them.  The last time we were in similar negative 3 digit territory was at the end of 2017 and then the market went on a rampaging Bull run...

Still the 2 scenarios of breakout to the Bearish side and retrace to the Bullish side persist, and will do until we see a significant rally or a significant Bearish break.  For me the time to finally resolve this is near now.  Perhaps US stock indices breaking through to fresh ATHs will provide impetus for exuberant buying, drawing speculators out of cash holdings?  Perhaps news of a Brexit resolution with give GBP and USD a spark.  Maybe there will be some relief to the dreadful economic data coming out of the Eurozone.  Don't know, don't care.  The price movements will tell this tale soon enough.  I am Long EUR with tight stops on this potential turn, if the market drops again to the lower Triangle line there will be final chance for the retrace and after that, well one thing at a time...


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EUR has rallied off the Fib 76/78% zone (a failed retest of the previous ending Triangle breakout zone with PMD and a strong A-B-C EWT1-2 retrace to this turn.  While GBP is hammering away up in a strong rally, EUR is more sluggish.  This is not surprising to me as GBP has just entered a wave 3 of a wave C, very strong, but EUR has yet to complete a wave A so I expect this pair to be a bit more zig/zag.  Short term I expect some bearish retrace prior to a stronger rally, while  GBP pauses.

I was long off the previous channel breakout and added to my positions on the turn and rally today.  Is that large scale retrace I have been tracking about to be triggered?


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That 1-2 short term retrace I was expecting has now come to pass and then the market rallied away from support.  A continuation of this rally should see breaks of several overhead resistance zones, the crucial one being around the Weekly chart channel line.



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Guest sssss

eur/usd will fall and will create new lower low in daily chart but that wont be a run which will change the ranging market into the trending we will still have the ranging market which might make new lower lows after time but there wont be any huge volatility for one side of the price. now "trendline" is broken and get ready that it will be fake breakout maybe first day of the week will give us some bull run to drive even higher and attract many buyers in spot market which doesnt makes sense in real market and volume so after that price will fall really hard but important is to wait for first day to rise and then enter sell during europian session at the early hours of london session and keep it until it creates new lower low

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Looks like you, me and Guest sssetc are all long term bearish EURUSD, good start for a dialogue.  Seems we only differ in that you guys think it is all down hill from here whereas I see a strong retrace before that scenario.  I am tracking both scenarios however as both are credible to me.  A breakout from the lower Triangle support line is needed for the downhill scenario, but as the Guest says, watch out for a sharp early relief rally just after.

Let me focus on the scenario I believe to be more likely, which is the strong retrace before the big drop.  Let's look at the big picture in a bit more detail.  On my Monthly chart, below, you can see a long Bear trend but in this time frame there is plenty of room for a retrace back towards the upper channel line before a resumption of the Bear.  The relative recent rally pink 3-4 carried to the Fib 38% and turned there coincident with the long term channel resistance line.  This is Bearish for me.

On my Weekly chart you can see that rally between pink 3 & 4, which occurred in a narrowing channel and when broken to the down side brought up the Bearish trend you are referring to in your chart.  This move itself is not long term, although I do believe the trend has turned back into the long term Bear trend with this move.  However markets move in zig zags and trends move between consolidation zones, otherwise there would be no oxygen for the prevailing trend, when that happens we get a crash, I don't think we are there yet on FX.  And the market price action has been flattening out into consolidation for 6+ months now, around that 11260 zone you were referring to.

Support for a retrace scenario:

  1. The above sets the context with a flattening out in consolidation, which is a typical set up for a retrace move in EWT1-2 form.  We are at long term support, just short of the lower line of the Triangle encompassing the whole move down BUT the final wave often falls short of a touch on the support line.  Still we could see a break through support to the lower line and bounce.
  2. Very strong positive momentum divergence on the Weekly chart.
  3. EWT count on the bearish move can be seen as either a 1-5 to the low or to an early low with a small retrace of the Aug 2018 low, the latter would support the downhill from here scenario.  However normally when a market turns into a wave 3 it does so with a strong move and we have not seen that, rather that protracted consolidation I referred to previously, hence I am favouring the former set up rather than the latter, which calls for a strong retrace between blue 1 & 2.
  4. GBPUSD has already bounced out of it's equivalent Bearish channel and is in retrace rally mode.
  5. DX is approaching a channel breakout to the Bearish side, which if it happens means EURUSD will be rallying.  So DXis worth watching if you believe it is USD strength/weakness that will decide this rather than EUR strength/weakness.
  6. Stochastic & RSI have come out of over sold on the Weekly and are rising, same on Daily.
  7. Commitment of traders data shows the Financials at a new Short position of over 100k.  As you can see from my Weekly chart, they always get the big turns wrong, because they are mainly trend followers.  This is strictly a contrarian view point.  I trade with the Commercials rather than with the Financials, especially on commodities.  It is the Commercials who know their markets the best, they have the inside info.  This is not so clear cut on FX of course and yet the Financial do seem to get the major turns wrong a lot... 

Net, I can't rule out the full on Bear from here, nor indeed another short term leg down before a retrace rally but if we see breakouts of key resistance across the board, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, maybe even Yen then the odds are good that we will see a significant retrace rally before a major turn down.  I would expect this major turn down to be a USD rally led move across the board that is coincident with a major stock indices turn down and precious metals rally.  Likely also to be a significant move on US Treasuries as yields rise.  Still that is ahead, for now I am watching the short term approaches to key support/resistance.


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That all sound very good and it's great to see your reasoning but I still think that 1.12650 is very important to the move, it's taken from last November till now to break that line and until there is a weekly close above it I personally would not risk any long play, however should that happen I would be with you all the way.

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Can't argue with that, it is a good approach to wait for significant breakouts.  As you can see from my 1 hour chart I have the same 11260 area marked up as important short/medium term resistance and I too want to see that broken but also some further resistance levels above that also broken to clear our the medium term trend.  I marked where I went Long for reference, which is simply based on my approach to dip in and out until the swing is in play.  My Longs are stop protected at break even so I'm fine either way, although obviously more so if the retrace happens.


So my plan is to wait for the relevant breakouts to add to my position and pyramid the retrace, if it happens.  I have a similar set up on GBPUSD, although that pair is already in retrace so more confident here.  I also have something similar of CADUSD, although that one is also connected to my final leg rally on crude oil.

We are now approaching 11260, lets see...




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The market rejected at the 11260 level but is now testing the Fib 50% support level.  This level is also the long term Monthly chart Fib 50% level.  A rally here should bring up another test of the 11260 resistance level.  A break should see a test of the next support level around 11160.


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