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By TrendFollower · Posted
Looking at Lumber then it seems to me that it needs to hold the $30000 level. If it can defend and hold that then there could be further upside this year. If not then it could begin going down into the late $20000's. This is a personal assumption which now will need to be tested based on current price behaviour. In my opinion, for any trend followers who are short, they must hold (even if they do not add to their positions on further price declines) until there is a clear trend reversal. This should execute their stop loss / trailing stop. In my opinion, for any trend followers who are waiting on the sidelines that do not want to short, then they must wait patiently until there is a clear trend reversal signalling / indicating a trend reversal to warrant a long trade initiation. -
By TrendFollower · Posted
One thing to remember is that Platinum is trading at a cheaper price than Gold. Gold and Silver have left Platinum behind since the rally started back in August of last year. It seems Platinum has had enough and wants to begin to assert some authority on the price action. Platinum of course has several important industrial uses. I think Platinum will try and hit the $1000 dollar area as that is an important psychological price point and these rallies love nice round numbers as a target. This is seen time and time again in Commodities. Platinum is both an industrial metal and a precious metal. Platinum is also known at the 'Rich Man's Gold'. This could lead to a reversal in pricing between Platinum and Gold. Platinum should be more expensive than Gold and so there could be a shift in speculative capital from Gold into Platinum. Platinum could attract extra volatility as Gold and Silver are more liquid markets. I do not know what will happen in the future for Platinum prices but I shall follow the price action closely. Platinum will not follow any of my thoughts or assumptions as to what I think may happen. Platinum is not obliged to follow any of my trading strategies or plans. Platinum may not follow the path I have mapped out in my mind and nor does it have to. Platinum will do what it will do just like any other Commodity. As a trader the key is whether I can profit from the price action or not. Prices can change like the weather and so can traders views and opinions. I know from my experience that on many occasions the price action changes my views and opinions. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. If this did not happen due to stubbornness, ego or I know best attitude then it would be worth worrying about. -
By TrendFollower · Posted
Bitcoin is trying to break out when looking at the 'daily'. It will be interesting if it can and if it does then whether the other 'alt coins' follow. -
Both Gold and Silver are still following my road map however both have hit an interesting juncture, which could prove to be an early turning point. I am still favouring the Fib 50% for Gold, a long term reliable Fib level for this market (however it does not occur at a strong price action support level this time so a further deeper retrace could be on the cards) and if that happens then Silver retesting the long term supporting trend line is also on the cards. So much for that, what about the case for the current levels? Gold: Complex form retrace (EWT) completed (that is an A-B-C with internal A-B-C forms on each leg) Pos Mom Divergence at the current price point on Daily and 4 Hourly charts RSI and Stochastic both over sold Credible 1-5 wave down to current price point Bounce off the Fib 38% and associated support zone Potential Triangle breakout and retest then rally away on 4 Hourly chart Similar on Silver, although perhaps less compelling. I might expect a further drop on Silver with Gold holding or rallying slowly. I am Long Gold at the Fib 38% with tight stops just below the turning point for a very low exposure trade. For me this was worth the small loss if Gold carries on down but there may be another chance to get Long on a near term EWT 1-2. And maybe Platinum is showing the way... -
GBPUSD also still following my road map. First chance for a rally for me is the Fib 62% zone where the previous channel breakout occurred and a previous retest failed. Chance for a test of strong support at Fib 6/78% cannot be ruled out and this pair is spiky so could easily occur. All aligned to directional price action on EUR and AUD as well.
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