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Just re-read the post above and 'price popping out either end' doesn't make any sense, I meant top or bottom.

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Oh, well if it's just a case of posting a chart of historical prices with some TA overlaid then even I can do that.  Simple.

djia.thumb.jpg.91c348fe6096c6c6b862c2bc144f3767.jpg

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This is interesting, here is this mornings Dax M1 chart with 2 indicators matching. The blue/red dots are a MACD cross signal 5,35,10 and the green dots are psar default. All ready decided that longs were the way and a 10 stop and 20 target 3 good entries. 

You don't need two indicators but it's interesting how they match.

image.thumb.png.975cf4f09611ec8cd005a2007fd42091.png

 

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Here's another good one.  (Not shown are the other 9 in 10 that didn't work :) )

geld.jpg

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As a wise man (possibly Confucius, or maybe it was Aristotle) once said, 'The problem with TA is that even a broken clock is right twice a day.'

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As a wise man (possibly Confucius, or maybe it was Aristotle) once said, 'The problem with TA is that even a broken clock is right twice a day.'

But not three straight hits in a row, The TA's not the problem, it's how and when it's applied.

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Haha yes, I know, it's never TA but the person applying it who is the broken clock.  As luck would have it I am having a lucky streak using the demo account today.

Off the back of Jezza's recommendation on Renault.  Using the good old 'put a stop just above the gap' strat.

renault.thumb.jpg.7f446bd157e7bdc34a6db944afb41eef.jpg

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Well, at least I'm consistent: all my trades reversed and stopped out on the demo platform too. :P

I give up - I don't see any way to be profitable doing this in the long run.

Good luck to anyone still trying!

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27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well, at least I'm consistent: all my trades reversed and stopped out on the demo platform too. :P

not sure how you managed that on the gold trade, your entry looked to be 1335.00 and price is currently 1336.38.

Obviously chart structure wise it was a very late entry but that is one of the problems with the larger time frames, things don't always set up at a convenient time of day.

image.thumb.png.600b930591613a711ba7f9b539322ae5.png 

 

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@caseynotes thanks mate was looking for that area. Will check through it.

In terms of strategy - it is interesting people being so open.

Showing our mistakes allows us to improve so people who have exposed themselves have been brave.

But together with others opinions like yourself - it really does help. You can try different timeframes.

I noticed you like Wykoff which tends to really suit a longer timeframe.

In my mind he synthesised a variety of different ideas - it is amazing how few people these days know of him and how so many could benefit from his principles...

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4 minutes ago, Bell said:

@caseynotes thanks mate was looking for that area. Will check through it.

In terms of strategy - it is interesting people being so open.

Showing our mistakes allows us to improve so people who have exposed themselves have been brave.

But together with others opinions like yourself - it really does help. You can try different timeframes.

I noticed you like Wykoff which tends to really suit a longer timeframe.

In my mind he synthesised a variety of different ideas - it is amazing how few people these days know of him and how so many could benefit from his principles...

@Bell, yes indeed, it is hard starting out, everyone underestimates how long to takes to get to grips with the market and the realisation TA is probably only 20% of it.

A study of Wyckoff is essential to understanding market structure and how price behaves and the basic principles do play out on all timeframes. Just need to be aware that consolidation doesn't always mean accumulation or distribution, sometimes there is just a lack of activity. I was talking about rectangles in an earlier post in this thread today, if it is a true block of acc or dist activity price will fly out with some force which is another good reason to rectangle off periods of consolidation and look for price to shoot up or down out rather than crawl, and then be looking for the pullback. The other thing is that acc or dist may occur as a series of blocks before completion and reversal rather than as most Wyckoff  diagrams show, one auto following the other in a nice neat fashion. 

Interesting stuff.

Wyckoff.thumb.PNG.a124c7c712d6fd8cbad23ba503759a0d.PNG

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@caseynotes The consolidation phase is the one that leaves a lot of investors with problems.

Is it the move up or the dreaded down. Volume gives some idea.

Thing is that is why we are all keen on trading the breakout.

On SB you have said you don't like to trade the breakout- but the pullback.

A lot of investors myself included always fear the Pullback may turn into a distribution phase.

You have to have feel for the trend - which Wykoff is so strong for.

Those are the fears. Some times on the longer phase it is a little more definite the signal.

NB. The rectangle point which is one I strongly favour was also proposed by Nicholas Darvas.

They bleed into each other but Wykoff is so good as a basis. It is seen over and over in so many charts.

 

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@Bell, yes it would be nice if the phases were evenly spaced as in the diagrams but that's not real life of course. A strong break out with volume indicating the opposition have been cleared as you say is favourite, I've got one with volume I'll add it below. The retest or at least an attempt to retest will come and when that pullback fails is as sure a trade as you'll find, those attempts at breakouts while in consolidation though can get messy and often snare and trap the unwary.

Wyckoff2.PNG.3c0d76ad3d43633f046a7b628cb64e25.PNG

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Back already!  Just can't keep myself away :P

You're right, the gold trade was okay.  Renault closed slightly above the gap but I had the opportunity to take £25 profit and I probably should have given I didn't bother to do any other analysis.

Well, I have new strategies to try out.  Try again :D

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Posted (edited)

I meant that the price closed above opening, into the gap.

Entering late is one of my many faults.

Edited by dmedin

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Posted (edited)

Might be time for gold to retrace a little.  If so would like to get on it early.

When 20 < 50 and 5 < 20 then that is a good sign ... along with relative position of oscillator

gold.jpg

Edited by dmedin

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

Might be time for gold to retrace a little.  If so would like to get on it early.

When 20 < 50 and 5 < 20 then that is a good sign ... along with relative position of oscillator

difficult to stay away I know, that's because it is a challenge 🙂. Just a note on the gold chart. Stoch is a leading indicator while the MA's are very laggy. so your arrow pointing to the start of a wave down for gold has been and gone, there was a pull back which stoch signalled the start of by dropping out of overbought but it's now in over sold so you should be looking for a long entry as stoch pops up out of oversold and heads back up.

image.png.e862e58d9f59f4eca243e7d1472fdb9f.png

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Interesting 5 min vid of traders results and compares the transition from demo to live, featuring the good, the bad and the ugly.

 

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19 hours ago, Bell said:

In terms of strategy - it is interesting people being so open.

 

I see no reason to Hide any info, if some one can gain a benefit from the experience of others, then lessons are learnt/taught the world is a crazy place these days, its nice to have a group of like minded souls all striving towards the same goal. while i love my macd and pSAR indicators my emotions always get the better of me and ultimately i lose, over the last few years i have lost around the $50K mark not to mention (due to other circumstance) losing my Business, House, Car, breaking my back 2 years ago in a car accident in the space of 4-6 months, over all Bankruptcy saw me down over half a million dollars+.

But i get up every morning , i smile and go off to work, i have a new passion, a reason for living, Life itself has been very tough, but i feel the light at the end of the tunnel is now growing , and Karma is seeing i get my lucky break due.

I now use an Auto Trade System, its only very new to me, this has been the 1st week and then only 4 days of it working at full speed, im 3 weeks into it, the 1st 2 weeks were a trial with $500 and i made $42 in that 2 weeks, now at the end of week 3 and another $5k put into the trading account, im up $296. With very low risk factors, this has the potential to make a lot more per day/week, but $70+ a night while i sleep this week is a good return. Im going to graph up some info over this weekend, and i will be happy to share my results with any that are interested. (will start a new post with it.) 

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8 minutes ago, davidbrister said:

I see no reason to Hide any info, if some one can gain a benefit from the experience of others, then lessons are learnt/taught the world is a crazy place these days, its nice to have a group of like minded souls all striving towards the same goal. while i love my macd and pSAR indicators my emotions always get the better of me and ultimately i lose, over the last few years i have lost around the $50K mark not to mention (due to other circumstance) losing my Business, House, Car, breaking my back 2 years ago in a car accident in the space of 4-6 months, over all Bankruptcy saw me down over half a million dollars+.

But i get up every morning , i smile and go off to work, i have a new passion, a reason for living, Life itself has been very tough, but i feel the light at the end of the tunnel is now growing , and Karma is seeing i get my lucky break due.

I now use an Auto Trade System, its only very new to me, this has been the 1st week and then only 4 days of it working at full speed, im 3 weeks into it, the 1st 2 weeks were a trial with $500 and i made $42 in that 2 weeks, now at the end of week 3 and another $5k put into the trading account, im up $296. With very low risk factors, this has the potential to make a lot more per day/week, but $70+ a night while i sleep this week is a good return. Im going to graph up some info over this weekend, and i will be happy to share my results with any that are interested. (will start a new post with it.) 

Sounds interesting, best of luck.

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The hints and tips people have given on this thread are greatly appreciated.  👍

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The hints and tips people have given on this thread are greatly appreciated.  👍

How's that gold trade looking?

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It closed at 1346.35 for a £57.65 profit!  Shame it was just on the demo account 🙈

Also in the demo account I have this trade currently running:

djia.thumb.jpg.bb352974e5fea40a300a1a467b663185.jpg

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This is a real trade I have going.  I was fairly sure a bottom had been reached in Brent, and you see the 'fakeout' (with 5MA > 20 MA > 50MA), I would probably have traded that if I had noticed it, however I did jump on the second time.

oil.thumb.jpg.ba45ffd5b45c1b7ab669dd80d64ffde1.jpg

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It's a risky one though as it's clearly still in a downtrend, so will be lucky to get 32 - 50% retracement back up.  Sorry, my diagram's a mess with all the hourly support/resistance lines.

oil.thumb.jpg.6b9136eef83638457709d5001cac2482.jpg

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I might be interested in going long on gold (using real money) at 1335 or thereabouts.  Very confused as to why gold is still climbing at the same time as the indices.  Also long on DJIA.  Hope I haven't jumped on at the **** end.

gold.thumb.jpg.ba556d2deb490e632a4b132509972c0a.jpg

 

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@dmedin,

Your last post about MA curves (slopes) is something I pay a lot of interest in for my trading strategy.

I pay a lot of attention to the MA curves and how they slope when trying to identify the strongest trending assets. I want to see those MA curves sloping upwards for a 'Long' trade or sloping downwards for a 'Short' trade. I tend to stay away from trades when they are sloping sideways.

It is just one of several indicators / signals I use in my 'decision making basket' when trying to make an informed trading decision. This does not guarantee a successful or profitable trade on its own. It needs to be combined with other indicators / signals. What is does is adds another factor which can puts the odds and probability a little bit more in your favour as you are trading in the direction of the MA sloping curves and not against them. 

 

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The danger always is here that you get indicator overload.

I used to have loads of the stuff. As long as it alleviates indecision rather than leading to it - which a bunch pushed me towards. I realise now I was looking for the perfect trade and it was based round fear.

Two good indicators that you feel comfortable with are best. I like stochs and RSI also the CCI has been useful for me.

Price still the best indicator out there in my view. Support and resistance levels aid the trade.

 

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By the way casey great to see the Wykoff chart on the thread - good stuff.

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