Jump to content

Is spread betting for fools?

Recommended Posts

I have The FEAR lol

2 trades running for £1pp.  

Wow, I can't believe how much this effects me for only £2.  I spent £20 last night on Wine and Food.  Jeeez what is the problem here....haha

Share this post


Link to post
On 20/06/2019 at 11:38, nit2wynit said:

But it would have tied up my Capital for 2 months or so?  No income from it.  There was a stock I was using last week where it dropped several hundred points in the day.

£5 per point, 355 points in 2 months = £1775, for me anyway that would have been awesome if I had held on to my short until the end.  Stop loss would have been around 1445 for a max loss of £50 or so.

OCDO-Daily.thumb.png.a81ca844fe369367c9f8331f9ac3a2e0.png

Share this post


Link to post
18 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I have The FEAR lol

2 trades running for £1pp.  

Wow, I can't believe how much this effects me for only £2.  I spent £20 last night on Wine and Food.  Jeeez what is the problem here....haha

The problem is either you don't trust your system because you haven't tested it properly or that you don't trust yourself to stick to it. 

You should all ready know what's going to happen after you've entered the trade, when price does this I do that, when price does that I do this.

The actual result of one trade doesn't matter, what matters is the collective results of many trades, like what you did for testing 😶

Share this post


Link to post

My 'System' isn't he problem.  My Fear of losing money is.  It's clearly Psychological.  It's not about Trust.  It's the Fear of Loss.  Fear causes Hesitation and doubt.  Same psychological fear that has governed every single endeavor I have undertaken.  I don't fear failure, but I do fear financial loss.  

I bought and sold cars a few years ago.  Pulling out 2 or 3 grand at a time had a similar effect.  It's Gambling.  I know my way around a car and how to fix them, what to look for, I know my way around a camera as I pull out 10k for gear, I know my way around my Carpentry tools, but this is also about Random Chance.  It's a different beast.  I'm going to stop playing on the Demo as @davidbrister suggested and get this Fear under control.

I've proven time and time again my success rate on the demo with the same Strategy.

I am the problem.

I could throw 20k at this, but my Plan is to turn 2k into profit.  When I've proven this, I'll Graduate myself to the next level.

I was fearful simply placing the 1st bet today.  The amount doesn't seem to be the problem.  It's just a Fear in the background.  

It's going to take time before this is part of my psyche.

However, I did it wrong straight away today.  Picked to Stocks that were consolidating.  I've tried to beat the drop again.

I just wanted to take the first step back into the Live arena.

The 2 trades I'm in now have been going for 1hr and 2 hrs.  lol.  So much for in and out in 10 mins.


Slow moving traffic.  They've both gone the other way and the anguish of a 2 hr wait ruins me.

Soon I'll be stopped out on both for -£15 in total.  I can live with a £15 lesson today.

@dmedin Ocado......I won't try and save it.  It's gone the wrong way on me so i'll let it fail.

I'm calling it a day folks.  Enjoy the weekend. :D





 

failed again .jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Ocado looks like it is turning into a potential long now.  :D

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

JD Sports is due a little correction.  :)

JD-Daily.thumb.png.c6959c386217c143c612077cd93bef75.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

You don't have a system unless you have a set of rules that govern every step for every trade. Most people's system actually comes down to 'I'll pull the trigger when I think things look right', that's not a system, you are instead relying on emotion to make consistently correct decisions, when the decisions become inconstant self doubt creeps in and then the fear, you may as well stop right there.

As I said further back, you need to get scientific, otherwise you are shooting from the hip at shadows.

Develope a rule based system, test it to prove it's validity and then trial it live. If you are not doing this you are wasting your time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
40 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

My 'System' isn't he problem.  My Fear of losing money is.  It's clearly Psychological.  It's not about Trust.  It's the Fear of Loss.  Fear causes Hesitation and doubt. 


 It's a different beast.  I'm going to stop playing on the Demo as @davidbrister suggested and get this Fear under control.

I am the problem.

I could throw 20k at this, but my Plan is to turn 2k into profit.  When I've proven this, I'll Graduate myself to the next level.
 

@nit2wynit It is dangerous beast to train and control, and even with the strictest rules set in place, (type type them up and print them out, stick on PC side or wall above monitor) once you press the Go Button, doubt and 2nd guessing yourself turns you into a monster. 

Even now with my Auto Trading, im analyzing the open trades too much and get that fear of should i adjust something instead of just let it go. I dont touch it, but by god do i want too, lol.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
53 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

You don't have a system unless you have a set of rules that govern every step for every trade. Most people's system actually comes down to 'I'll pull the trigger when I think things look right', that's not a system, you are instead relying on emotion to make consistently correct decisions, when the decisions become inconstant self doubt creeps in and then the fear, you may as well stop right there.

As I said further back, you need to get scientific, otherwise you are shooting from the hip at shadows.

Develope a rule based system, test it to prove it's validity and then trial it live. If you are not doing this you are wasting your time.

I see what you're saying Casey.  What I mean is the fear got me first therefore the system failed .  Not the system itself but the process.

 

I have a checklist.  My problem again today was an old one.  Anticipate the drop instead of riding it.

 

So what I mean is I failed to apply the system.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

You don't have a system unless you have a set of rules that govern every step for every trade. Most people's system actually comes down to 'I'll pull the trigger when I think things look right', that's not a system, you are instead relying on emotion to make consistently correct decisions, when the decisions become inconstant self doubt creeps in and then the fear, you may as well stop right there.

As I said further back, you need to get scientific, otherwise you are shooting from the hip at shadows.

Develope a rule based system, test it to prove it's validity and then trial it live. If you are not doing this you are wasting your time.

 

What should those rules be?

Share this post


Link to post
41 minutes ago, davidbrister said:

@nit2wynit It is dangerous beast to train and control, and even with the strictest rules set in place, (type type them up and print them out, stick on PC side or wall above monitor) once you press the Go Button, doubt and 2nd guessing yourself turns you into a monster. 

Even now with my Auto Trading, im analyzing the open trades too much and get that fear of should i adjust something instead of just let it go. I dont touch it, but by god do i want too, lol.

 

😂

Share this post


Link to post
21 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I see what you're saying Casey.  What I mean is the fear got me first therefore the system failed .  Not the system itself but the process.

 

I have a checklist.  My problem again today was an old one.  Anticipate the drop instead of riding it.

 

So what I mean is I failed to apply the system.

I was just making general comment rather than referring directly to your system, what you say is experienced by almost everyone at some stage. People think they should develope a 'feel for the thing' and once they get that all will be fine but the reality is that you need to expel emotions from the equation because they will always be inconsistent and it's the inconsistency that causes the failure. Having a playbook of rules means the on the spot decision making is excluded and is the only way to the constancy you need to succeed. A bit like programming an algo to trade for you.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

What if your well-planned rule-based system results in losing lots of money?

Share this post


Link to post
15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

What should those rules be?

The rules for a system don't have to be extensive because really there are only so many ways a trade can play out.

Before that though you must decide what type of trading system the rules are to be applied to, the broad basics, swing or reversal or day trading, that list I posted recently in the Technical Analysis thread covers it.

So you have already decided type, time frame, time to trade, amount to risk etc well before looking at the charts.

Then it's just a list of simple rules to govern the actual trade, if this happens then I do that, that are applicable to the type of trading you have decided on.

For example,

I will enter long if ?MA crosses above ?MA when both are above the upward sloping long term ?MA.

I will set a stop loss at the most recent swing low.

If the trade progresses the ?MA will act as my trailing stop and I will exit when price closes below it.

It really can be as simple as that, if it works on demo over 20 trades (has a risk/reward ratio and win rate plot on the profitable portion of the graph (ask if you want to know more about this)) then go ahead and trial it live at minimum size. 

So with rules in place all you need to do is act the robot, follow the rules and keep the emotional wreak you really are well away from the decision making process 🙂

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

What if your well-planned rule-based system results in losing lots of money?

If you are losing lots of money stop what you are doing because you are doing it wrong and start on a new plan 🙂 

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
On 17/06/2019 at 07:21, Caseynotes said:

This is a good article, 20 questions you need to be able to answer;

20 Questions For Help Building a Trading Plan

System

  1. What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, CAN SLIM, option trader, another, or a combination?
  2. What time frame will I be trading on?
  3. What are my trading rules?
  4. What signals my entry?
  5. What will signal my exit?
  6. Do I use a trailing stop or a price target to lock in profits?
  7. What will I be trading?
  8. Will I trade long or short or both?
  9. What is the probability of my trade working out based on historical data?
  10. What has to happen to invalidate my trading system and make me look for flaws in my thinking?

Psychology

  1. How big of a position size can I mentally and emotionally handle trading?
  2. Does my chosen trading method fit my personality for activity and risk tolerance?
  3. Do I truly believe that my method will work and be profitable?
  4. Do I enjoy trading?
  5. Do I have the mental strength to persevere until successful in trading?

Risk

  1. How much of my trading capital will I risk per trade?
  2. How many losses in a row with this level of risk will lead to blowing up my trading account?
  3. How much will I lose at one time if all my open positions go against me at the same time?
  4. How correlated with each other are all your open positions and your potential trading vehicles that are on your watch list?
  5. Do you fully understand the potential risk in what you are trading?

http://www.newtraderu.com/2014/01/07/6072/

The list mention was posted in this thread not the Technical Analysis thread, here it is again.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

****!!!

Went out with a Trade running.  Stop in place but not Guaranteed.  Weekend.

Should I be concerned?? :O



 

oh crap.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, dmedin said:

What if your well-planned rule-based system results in losing lots of money?

@dmedin,  Change it!!! because theres a fault that you havent realised yet. 

Find yourself a trading partner, some one u trust, that you can bounce ideas off and discuss plans strategy, get them to read and go over your plan, maybe you missed something, a 2nd pair of eyes and a fresh brain might pick it up.

I would have hoped that this sort of forum could be that trading partner, but maybe its too open, depends like myself sharing my Auto Trade Program im putting it out there for the experiment, but for some who are more sheltered 1 on 1 or a small group may be better.

best of luck. 

Edited by davidbrister
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
7 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

****!!!

Went out with a Trade running.  Stop in place but not Guaranteed.  Weekend.

Should I be concerned?? :O



 

oh crap.jpg

@nit2wynit, the market is closed now, so you cant do anything till it reopens monday morning, but watch out for opening crazy ups and downs before it settles in for the day.

Share this post


Link to post
6 hours ago, davidbrister said:

@dmedin,  Change it!!! because theres a fault that you havent realised yet. 

Find yourself a trading partner, some one u trust, that you can bounce ideas off and discuss plans strategy, get them to read and go over your plan, maybe you missed something, a 2nd pair of eyes and a fresh brain might pick it up.

I would have hoped that this sort of forum could be that trading partner, but maybe its too open, depends like myself sharing my Auto Trade Program im putting it out there for the experiment, but for some who are more sheltered 1 on 1 or a small group may be better.

best of luck. 

 

I had hoped someone would pick up on my JD Sports idea (I have an active short on that) but I guess it isn't interesting enough :P

 

Share this post


Link to post
Guest Jd sporting goods trade
9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I had hoped someone would pick up on my JD Sports idea (I have an active short on that) but I guess it isn't interesting enough :P

 

Put it in the shares forum

Share this post


Link to post
20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I had hoped someone would pick up on my JD Sports idea (I have an active short on that) but I guess it isn't interesting enough :P

 

What was your JD Sports idea? i must have missed that sorry

 

Share this post


Link to post
22 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

****!!!

Went out with a Trade running.  Stop in place but not Guaranteed.  Weekend.

Should I be concerned?? 😮



 

oh crap.jpg

If it's a UK company keep an eye on the Weekend FTSE, it doesn't appear to have moved much so far but if it looks like taking off in the wrong direction you might consider a taking out a hedging trade on it.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

If it's a UK company keep an eye on the Weekend FTSE, it doesn't appear to have moved much so far but if it looks like taking off in the wrong direction you might consider a taking out a hedging trade on it.

Thaks Casey, but this was just a Test to get Live again.

I've never left a Live trade open over a weekend before.  Worried it'll spike up ten million points and wipe me out.

It's not a Guaranteed stop.  What will happend it it was to open 100 points in either direction of my Limit or Stop?

Share this post


Link to post
25 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Thaks Casey, but this was just a Test to get Live again.

I've never left a Live trade open over a weekend before.  Worried it'll spike up ten million points and wipe me out.

It's not a Guaranteed stop.  What will happend it it was to open 100 points in either direction of my Limit or Stop?

You will suffer or be rewarded with a 100 points of slippage as @Foxy points out in the other thread. Looking on the bright side if war breaks out you are likely to gain so keep your fingers crossed 😳

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

At least you won't end up with negative balance. :)

Share this post


Link to post
On 22/06/2019 at 21:06, dmedin said:

At least you won't end up with negative balance. :)

It was OK, I stopped it out at -£2.50, but I think the weekend charges are £13 lol, just checking thru the statement now :O

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
On 22/06/2019 at 08:09, dmedin said:

 

I had hoped someone would pick up on my JD Sports idea (I have an active short on that) but I guess it isn't interesting enough :P

 

@dmedin

OK I'll bite, Looks like a great one to short just need to keep an eye out for a bounce of 590 otherwise just hold short till it changes. I didn't realise you use a program, is it your own on proreal?

JD-1-hour.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
3 hours ago, Foxy said:

@dmedin

OK I'll bite, Looks like a great one to short just need to keep an eye out for a bounce of 590 otherwise just hold short till it changes. I didn't realise you use a program, is it your own on proreal?

JD-1-hour.png

 

It's the in-built ProRealTime one. :)

 

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,779
    • Total Posts
      40,621
    • Total Members
      50,993
    Newest Member
    Ritufx
    Joined 22/11/19 02:57
  • Posts

    • Well Bitcoin broke $8k and is currently around the $7.5k price area. It is not looking good at all.  It seems my $6.3k - $6.6k price area which I think could be the bottom or this specific downward move looks more likely now. I mentioned this price area on Monday (a few posts above) and now I think unless there is some serious buying or spectacular news followed by some serious pumping and short covering then Bitcoin is heading towards this price zone. 
    • There are many different ways to trade and applying or adopting trend following principles is merely just one such way. Trading more frequently does not guarantee any more success but it can increase the chances of making more losses if you do not have a robust trading system that is based on a sound trading plan. Trend following does not have to involve regular or frequent trading. That is the beauty of it. You can merely wait until you identify a trend which you wish to trade. Of course they will not all be successful as the trend could reverse sharply against you, it could be a false trend (looks like a trend but not) or simply the volatility could stop you out.  Day trading really is for full time traders in my personal opinion unless you have an expensive automated system which has been tested rigorously or you are an exceptional trader which can consistently make profits on most days without gambling, hoping or relying on luck.  Trend following suits me based on the time I have available to trade. I accept it is not for everyone but I believe all trading includes an element of trend following. Just how much depends on your trading style and methodologies adopted. 
    • The 20, 50 and 100 DMA curves on the 'daily' timeframe are sloping upwards which is extremely bullish and this trend has been very nice indeed.  When I talk about 'Strongest Trending Assets' in my other threads then I am suggesting those that a lot of traders do not spot but they exist and are available not only to trade on IG's platform but one must be able to spot and identify them. 
×
×