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Is spread betting for fools?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Ah right, so you knew what the data release at 1:30 was going to be then, why didn't you tell the rest of us what the figures were going to be?

huh?

 

I don't know what you're talking about.  I just look at charts patterns.

What's happened Casey?  you appear to have turned Sarcastic and Hostile.

Edited by nit2wynit

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The sudden drop at exactly 13:30 had nothing to do with your chart patterns, it was due to the figures in the US data release. 🤣🤣

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

The sudden drop at exactly 13:30 had nothing to do with your chart patterns, it was due to the figures in the US data release

Oh, i see.  and you think I'm tying to come across as a Prophet?? lol

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My General Feeling it was going to Drop was because it has been for over 12hours.

As for Data releases, it's something I should be aware of.

 

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

My General Feeling it was going to Drop was because it has been for over 12hours.

As for Data releases, it's something I should be aware of.

 

Yes, major news events can cause very sudden and major disruption to order flow, they can cause sudden reversals and start new long term trends. They are times when spread widens, volatility increases and liquidity can dry up which is why many retail traders avoid trading around them altogether. You should certainly know when they are due, I check the econ calendar every day and try to point out the major ones in the daily dashboard thread in the mornings.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I check the econ calendar every day and try to point out the major ones in the daily dashboard thread in the mornings.

I'll add this to my To Do List then.

 

That must also explain the spike yesterday also?

Thanks.

Edited by nit2wynit

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4 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

It has been, but stuck at around previous resistance of 1425 for 12 hours!  I no longer assume it's an Up Trend.

Speculation suggests another spike soon.  Others say a Drop.  i think at this point it's a waiting game till it's proves a direction.

How are you doing?  Making progress?

Very badly.

You'd think I'd learn.  :D

 

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36 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You'd think I'd learn.  :D

So long as we all do.....eventually.

Up £45 today on Gold.  Bit it's been a hard slog.  Not long now to make up the 1k I've lost :O

 

1017708813_up45.thumb.jpg.e0fce4646e90d84e104a45eb3d0647fc.jpg

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22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Very badly.

You'd think I'd learn.  :D

 

And there is plenty to learn, unfortunately many think you can learn it all from the charts but that's just not the case, you need a framework that can be applied to the charts.

I have recommended this before in the Technical Analysis thread because over the years it is the most concise and up to date learning packages I've seen.

Of special importance are the bottom half articles that make up the Study Guide section plus the video on Order Flow from the Lessons section.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15c3rN15rkXldY8Te3GDG4NG7noaaoikydOoZQlElwXw/preview?pru=AAABaf3_sQE*PXVDTaKtvm5VtQcvpBug2w

image.thumb.png.6a9f626a810b4b9a9dd8796793c23d17.png

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Actually i just want to say.........


What a Relief!!!!!!  Trading Small!!!! I know you all said it from the start, but you'll never understand the difference it makes to The Fear until you try it.

I can enter trades only risking 3-5£ now feeling confident with the direction.  Even if it's only for a couple quid here and there, it becomes more about being right on the chart than the profit.

This little remark could be short lived though, i'm well aware.  Expect me to post my losses tomorrow.! :O

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7 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation  and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.

 

Just noticed we got our retest of the top of the spike and has since tested lower.

image.thumb.png.c41cd5bedaba1fa58be2dae4f8bc12b5.png

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Just noticed we got our retest of the top of the spike and has since tested lower.

Yes, i have been in a small trade of £1pp since 1410.  I think I was up about £8 at it's lowest.  Currently £3.50 :D

I've adjusted my stop to not take a loss.  I'll let it run.

Concerned about letting it run into the changeover without a G Stop.

Edited by nit2wynit

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Posted (edited)

What I've learned today about my mistakes yesterday is the Stop.  Clearly reversals in the trend need a good 5pt average to oscillate; I was only allowing 2 stops, but only if I'm playing the Long game, which i don't plan to do; though may need to.  While I've stated my Stops weren't the problem, but my direction, it's still clearly obvious that I'd need to risk £100 @ £20 pp. to continue in any trend for a while.

At £1pp I've risked £5.  But made £50 with several small trades only risking £5 each time.

I've no idea where it's going next so getting out before the Changeover at 10pm.

Profit today on Gold.  £50.  Risk each time.  £5.

11 trades in total. 

8 x Winners = £84.52

3 x Losers = £33.55 Bigger losses as i was staking £20pp.

Clearly the ratio needs to improve.  I'm hoping it will as i nail down the appropriate Instruments to trade, and the price to trade them.

 

Edited by nit2wynit

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@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

 

 

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1 hour ago, pipe_wrangler said:

@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

lol.

Agreed. :D  

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6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I have recommended this before in the Technical Analysis thread because over the years it is the most concise and up to date learning packages I've seen.

I will personally make it my goal to study them over the weekend, moving forward.

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7 hours ago, pipe_wrangler said:

@Caseynotes I read this entire thread this afternoon. You deserve a medal for the knowledge, patience and outstanding sarcasm that you have given to this thread. 

That is all.

 

 

Thank you @pipe_wrangler, I do endeavour to push the boundaries in all the fields you mention and more. I've found that when trying to convey a theme which is new to the recipient repetition is boring and usually ignored and sometimes a more interesting tack is helpful.  

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22 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I took the £25 when it hit the bottom, anticipating a Reversal back to Resistance.  Used my £25 win as a Risk of £10 per point for a 2pt Stop for £20 going back up.

I'm not at all confident about this one.  Mistake?

 

@nit2wynit , i wouldnt keep changing the amount you use just because you had a win. hell while your still learning and playing on the live market, i would only be using $1 a point, so that u can get a better feel for it and not risk too much, yes if you get it right and it moves 10 points its only $10, but if it loses it could be $100 instead of $10. it prolongs your stay in the live market by letting you risk smaller amounts, ultimately,small regular gains will far outway massive 1 hit wonders mixed with big loses.

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12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't have fear, I'm just stupid.  :P

 

Developing a systematic approach counters the adverse affects of emotion; anxiety, stress, greed and fear. You really only need to be good at just one strategy. I never heard of anyone lasting who relied on their feelings, it's just not consistent because feelings are a rollercoaster of emotions.   

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3 hours ago, davidbrister said:

i wouldnt keep changing the amount you use just because you had a win.

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it :D 

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44 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it :D 

Once you gain confidence working in the new environment (live) then you will slowly start increasing size. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Cheers for the advice. bud. but I did change doww to £1pp at the end there.

It's going to be a long road back up to 1k  but i'm focusing on simply getting it right and not worrying about making money now.  Just keeping it :D 

 

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss and 'dealing' with it (which I have also experienced so I'm not aiming it at you) is a symptom of gambling addiction or something of that nature.  I think we need help.

Edited by dmedin

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss and 'dealing' with it (which I have also experienced so I'm not aiming it at you) is a symptom of gambling addiction or something of that nature.  I think we need help.

The key is having a tested system that you know works over a number of trades, so then a losing trade just doesn't matter.

But to be able to do that you first need to build the system, stick to the system, and keep a record of your trades.

If the record of your trades shows the system doesn't work then you need to start over til you find one that does.

The other course of action is just to keep shooting from the hip til you're all out of bullets.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

The key is having a tested system that you know works over a number of trades, so then a losing trade just doesn't matter.

But to be able to do that you first need to build the system, stick to the system, and keep a record of your trades.

If the record of your trades shows the system doesn't work then you need to start over til you find one that does.

The other course of action is just to keep shooting from the hip til you're all out of bullets.

 

I'm coming round to the conclusion that I can't make this work using any approach, and I just don't know how to do it.  I know markets are not 'random walk', they are manipulated by large institutional buyers and algorithms, but that doesn't mean everybody can learn how to make money from it.  Buy and hold is probably the only long-term viable option for 99% of people.

I'd rather be like one of the experts and 'advise' clients and sell training courses instead of actually gambling with my own money.

Edited by dmedin

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

I'm pretty sure this process of coming to terms with large monetary loss

I haven't lost a grand, I've gained an education at a cost of around £8 per day since i started;  I spend this much on Wine!!  It was necessary for me to lose I think as it was important to acquire emotional knowledge too.   My system is quite simple;  look for reversals or Support Resistance lines and try grab 5 points @£5 per point.  Using consolidation areas are my fave providing the points up and down are big enough.  I've said that when i first went live back in March my best move was on the Russell 2000.  Made about £250 over 3 hours just going up and down. 

I'll update my Aim and Wants right now with a clearer mind. 

I don't want to make millions, i want to make enough that I have free time each day/week/month ..... without wrrying about money.

I think for some it might be Gambling, but I've proved to myself if not others, that I can see a chart and read it.  Though i may have spoken out of frustration in the past, i'm certainly no Gambler.  I've just been foolish in anticipating too many drops.  Having a System and applying a System aren't the same thing.  Knowing to pull back instead of chase your failed idea time and time again isn't about a bad System, it's about not applying the system.

I've not been on today as needed a break.  Fresh head on me next week and i'll post my results of the week on Friday.

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This guy appears on IG TV a lot.  https://thesteadytrader.com/

Never seen him commit any of his own money.  You probably need to pay him an enormous consulting fee for that.

Check out his website.  It's pretty clear he's not making his money from trading on his own account.  Look at the products.  He makes money from analysis, not from committing his own money to his own trades.

(Apologies if this comes across as very rude.)

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