Is spread betting for fools?

[nit2wynit]

Some amazing potential today in the UK.  Hope you guys made some progress.  Not for me, it's too early lol.

[Caseynotes]

Jesse Livermore’s Equity curve:

[nit2wynit]

Wow^

[dmedin]

@nit2wynit

I'm restricting myself to daily/weekly charts only and drastically cutting down the amount I trade. 

@Caseynotes

I wouldn't read too much into the supposed trading history of any individual.  If we learn one thing, it's that the stock market is full of fraud and bullsh!t and an endless supply of suckers waving their wallets in the air and just begging to get taken over a barrel.

As we all know by now, all traders get out of the day trading/charting BS as soon as they get half a chance.

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@Caseynotes

I wouldn't read too much into the supposed trading history of any individual.  If we learn one thing, it's that the stock market is full of fraud and bullsh!t and an endless supply of suckers waving their wallets in the air and just begging to get taken over a barrel.

As we all know by now, all traders get out of the day trading/charting BS as soon as they get half a chance.

no, Livermore's EC is trading history recorded by the stock market. 'we' haven't learnt anything because the market is the only honest thing out there. that's because it's just a reflection of everything that can influence it.

I converse with day traders all day every day and have done for years, have tried to on this forum but usually on here it's a stream of new guy's looking for a short cut to the holy grail. 

I am thinking the real issue is people must have their 'opinions', everyone looks at a chart and they twist it with their favourite indicators or apply their favourite chart pattern with no comprehension the market just doesn't give a ****. People can't take that, once founded they hold their 'opinions' like it was a bar of gold and the market repeatedly just makes a mockery of them over and over again til they simply can't stand it no longer.

'Opinions' are meaningless, the market moves, it doesn't matter what time frame it's all the same. Once an auction at a particular price level has been completed price will move onto the next auction. You don't need opinions, you just need to see and say, oh, price has finished with this level time to jump onboard and hitch a ride to the next level. 

that's it really.

 

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you just need to see and say, oh, price has finished with this level time to jump onboard and hitch a ride to the next level. 

that's it really.

If that's all there was to it, nobody would have bothered inventing all these stupid convergence/divergence 'indicators' (all of which work equally well because they are all equally useless).

Even Burton Malkiel says he never met a chartist who actually managed to make any money. 

 

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

If that's all there was to it, nobody would have bothered inventing all these stupid convergence/divergence 'indicators' (all of which work equally well because they are all equally useless).

Even Burton Malkiel says he never met a chartist who actually managed to make any money. 

 

yeah that was my point, you don't need an indicator to see the auction is over and price is moving on, other than a price chart obviously, and that's why they ALL look at a chart, so therefore all must be 'chartists'.

[DSchenk]

On 11/10/2019 at 14:12, Caseynotes said:

Jesse Livermore’s Equity curve:

Love that. Would prefer that curve every time vs the mostly flat curve of the average Joe going steadily from £0 to maybe £250k over a lifetime. Where's the excitement there?

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

Love that. Would prefer that curve every time vs the mostly flat curve of the average Joe going steadily from £0 to maybe £250k over a lifetime. Where's the excitement there?

yes, but somewhat erratic and 'all or nothing', though they were very erratic times. Looks like the 'curve' of someone who might have some kind of bipolar disorder and was certainly enough to make him want to put a gun to his head.

[DSchenk]

Anyone traded this beast today?

Could've risked £200 and made £600. And you don't even need huge margin. Sounds like something @nit2wynit would love to trade  

Although I don't know how large the spread was this morning between 8.00 and 8.30.

Perfect entry would've been after the bounce off pivot and then break of VWAP at 17.0. Then exit around 25.0 or so

Edited October 16, 2019 by DSchenk

[nit2wynit]

I've not been trading this week as I'm still with Flu, but that's certainly something I'd like to.  Risking 2 to make 6 is a good ratio.  Explain your In and Out to me?

Looking at it on the 5M I'd assume 2 options here.  One would be In at 1st Green Candle at 17 mark with a Stop at 16 if possible.  Then I'd let it ride till 22.6 where I'd get out seeing that long Red.  Of course it kept going but there's no way I'd risk it.  That would look a lot more severe on the 1M.

2nd I'd wait till it broke a New High at around 19 with a stop at 18.  Same Limit again if I saw that Red Candle.

[DSchenk]

2 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

Explain your In and Out to me?

In: Classic gap-and-go set-up. Entry after initial drop. Get confirmation as not breaking below pivot and then again as breaking above VWAP

Out: Probably would've sold on first 5min candle to make a new low, which would be around 22.6 at mR2. But then probably already covered profits earlier in that run because of fear of loosing it all in a huge drop again   

[nit2wynit]

I made £200 on Pinterest going up.  Left it over night.  Lost quite a bit of profit on the way back down.  I think it was up to £260.

So far on the Demo and my 1k challenge I am up about £750, with not many losses that exceed £50.  I haven't been trading every day.  In fact I haven't trade much at all for the last 3 weeks because of Flu or whatever it is I have.

Disappointing that PINS has dropped though.  I've $1k of shares.  So far they're back to pretty much what I paid for them.  Ironical that I made £200 with SB ha.

[dmedin]

This video popped up on my recommended list:

 

 

[Caseynotes]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

This video popped up on my recommended list:

you didn't comment?

funny little video, I though at first it was the typical play, let me tell you some dirty secrets to show you can trust me then let me sell you something, and it was, but not really.

So he's a company and been with IG a long time and is perfectly happy and will remain an IG customer for the foreseeable future, fine but;

• watch out for the PRT backtester? 
• don't be fooled by all those flashing lights?
• didn't see the clearly stated client sentiment data as a contrarian indicator note.
• the signals service doesn't really work if you just follow it blindly, or you could fade the signals, which he stopped doing because?

There you go, you have been warned ☹️

 

[dmedin]

@Caseynotes

IKR?  I was disappointed

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

@Caseynotes

IKR?  I was disappointed

I have a sneaking suspicion there might be quite a few conspiracy theory on your 'recommended for you' list 🙂

[Caseynotes]

The answer to the title question is of course it is, anyone can play. 

Here Brett Steenbarger describes 3 classic idiots trying to play the markets;

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/11/three-market-idiots.html

[DSchenk]

Nice gap-reversal opportunity today with Prudential after they split off M&G as a separate company.

Chart in PRT looks completely skewed, so screenshot from online platform below.

Managed to capture 10 points. Although, could've been 30 points looking at it now

Edited October 21, 2019 by DSchenk

[nit2wynit]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

The answer to the title question is of course it is, anyone can play. 

Here Brett Steenbarger describes 3 classic idiots trying to play the markets;

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/11/three-market-idiots.html

This is great.  

I see myself in each of the 3 examples

 

[nit2wynit]

1 hour ago, DSchenk said:

Nice gap-reversal opportunity today with Prudential after they split off M&G as a separate company.

Chart in PRT looks completely skewed, so screenshot from online platform below.

Managed to capture 10 points. Although, could've been 30 points looking at it now

Yeah i think you'd be brave to stay in that one till the end.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

This is great.  

I see myself in each of the 3 examples

 

yes I know, I think we're all in there somewhere  😆

[dmedin]

Well, according to Darwin the 'great success' in life consists of nothing more than continuous breeding.

That Darwin fella had a lot of experience with excessive breeding.  A bit like that Rees-Mogg ****.

[dmedin]

So ... anyone managed to make any money off this lark yet?

Didn't think so

 

[nit2wynit]

Watch this space.  2.30 bell

[dmedin]

Not even the 'best minds' or the best breeders of Wall Street can time the markets, follow the trends up and down or estimate the 'intrinsic value' of firms.

What makes us think we can, when all the evidence shows that 99% of 'day traders' lose all their money

[nit2wynit]

that 1% buddy. that 1%

[nit2wynit]

Usual pattern off success and failure so far.  Proven time and time again.  All Long All Stopped out.  Uncanny.

But now I'll try and Win on purpose.   Watch Pinterest.

Edited October 21, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Hmmm.  No Faith in it now. 

 

 

[dmedin]

Almost blown through my cash.

Pretty much given up now.  It's pointless.  I'll spend what little I've got left on booze and hookers.