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Posted (edited)

I got stopped out of JD Sports on the infamous 'flash crash' day, but also I didn't really hold my nerve and took profits on an earlier position far too early.  So I've been eagerly waiting an opportunity to go short on it to get my 'revenge'.  It's been on a really meteoric rise all year but there must surely come a point when it stops rising?

 

 

jddaily.jpg

Edited by dmedin

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Right?  But the 20, 50 and 200 SMAs are all pointing up.

Only a stupid fool (i.e. me) would pre-empt the SMAs and go short right now?

 

weekly.jpg

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9 hours ago, Guest cfd traders lose > 80% said:

Caseynotes' post on page one says it all, though somewhat miildly. You are going to lose unless you are smarter than the bucketshop.

lol.

Gambling is addictive tho.

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Well, it is an interesting chart,  it's a good example of what the chart of a well run company looks like, also demonstrates that overbought doesn't mean sell, and that buying the dips would have been a successful strategy. Shorting for revenge might turn out to be rather expensive. 🙂

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Well, it is an interesting chart,  it's a good example of what the chart of a well run company looks like, also demonstrates that overbought doesn't mean sell, and that buying the dips would have been a successful strategy. Shorting for revenge might turn out to be rather expensive. 🙂

 

Yes indeed, trend is no. 1.  

I should have stayed on the JD Sports bandwagon as it was clearly demonstrating strength.

It had a strong buy rating from all the big investing companies since January.  Sometimes there is such a thing as a no-brainer in investing I guess.

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When you look at a chart it's easy to see the turning points, they are the most obvious feature, so it's easy to get drawn into looking at a chart and trying to pick the next turning point. What you really need to be doing is firstly look to see if the chart is trending and if the answer is yes then you should be looking for an opportunity to get on board the trend. And that will be either at a continuation breakout after a short period of stalled momentum, or at a pullback.

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On 03/05/2019 at 00:36, dmedin said:

I've also had my eyes on TUI.  It seems to have rock bottomed and is starting to climb again.  Weekly stoch has crossed above 20.  Looking for a convincing breakout above the range 738 - 867p on high volume before going long.  Else, if it shows signs of being range bound it might be good to short it as it's currently at the very top of the range.

 

tui.jpg

tuiweekly.jpg

 

TUI is one to look out for next week as it reports earnings.  It failed to break out of the range and would have been a good one to short, if it were not for earnings coming up soon.

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Posted (edited)

@dmedin i could have sworn i posted to this yesterday but it's not here.

Anyway, I'm wondering what is attracting you to TUI?  This not a pattern or instrument that would ever get my attention.  It's done nothing but go down (Trendwise) since last summer and barely moves more than 30pts in a day.  What inside scoop do you have? :D

this could be what I'm mis-understanding.  Are you playing Long on SB?  I'm assuming you have a larger account than I've originally thought, or you're doing this for entertainment?

For information sake, i picked 20 random stocks 2 days ago that had gained a minimum of around 5% and so far, 2 days later, they all still red and my account is down £1800 on the Demo.

Statistically...........19 out of 20 red?? :O

 

 

Edited by nit2wynit
wrong info

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To add, my picking 20 random stock was a Statistical Learning; To witness the random successes of random picks.

It's quite possible I'd picked all stocks at the peak of their small % increase and consequently all went down or sidways and have me negative bacause of the spread.  However, I still feel the randomness should have provided a percentage split, not simply all red!

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Decided to try this  Spreads and CFD's as an experiment, experience and alternative to the sweet  1.5% on offer with ISA's. 

I had a strategy, still adjusting. I have a plan. But having no experience is a bit of a handicap. I detached myself from the money so it was no longer personal. 

I have had enormous fun and learned more about the global economy in 4 months and 10 days than the 25 years I have been reading the economist, running a small property business or talking with my very cautious banking friends (all of whom advised me not to spread or trade CFD's ). Opened a demo account and a real one.  

Despite being clobbered in the lumber markets ( attracted to the volatility) oil, gasoline and tracking the Dow have more than bailed me out. 

Have I won every week? Not on your Nelly! Did I take it personally when trades did not work out due to impatience, greed or poor timing? To begin with yes. Patience and belief have become my friends, even if the belief has come down to **** minded instinct on occasion.

Result? A profit of 38% in real money and 25% including margin or 37.5% without in demo after 4 months. Too much information is worse than not enough so have taken what makes sense.

Have traded out of all my positions  when Wall street hit 26671, with the exception of Calls on  Wall street June 19 (26500), call on Footsie @6725 May and a call on  June USD/GBP @1.3100. Still long on oil, though have regularly taken profits. Am still learning about calls and puts so will ride them out or cancel at close.

If one is to enter this with intention of it being one's sole income, then you will need at least £50k as your base and not be upset if you lose it all. Do not be obsessive about it either, remember to enjoy life. Don't take losses personally, see them as part of the process.

That's about all I can think to say on the subject for now. Save I am enjoying this far more than I imagined I would, but maybe that's because I am in profit.

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@786Trader Congrats on your successes so far.  Tell me, do you go Long or Short on your trades?

I'm getting the impression most people go Long.

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Both. Depending. Have gone long and short on oil, gasoline, FX and especially Wall street ( most every time it reaches a new high).  Have had less fortune with Lumber which seems to react in it's own sweet way, which I blame on the Chicago weather. Generally am looking for a swing. Then take the money and run. Have found stop losses set too conservatively are triggered easily when volatility is there. So approx 20% + or -,  is the stop, which seems huge but has worked for me so far.

Go to go as have duties that need attending to...

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22 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Save I am enjoying this far more than I imagined I would, but maybe that's because I am in profit.

Yes, not quite so much fun though when your account is racing towards zero 😀

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I got burned with day trading, it's not for me.  I'm attracted to the long-run and swing styles, pretty much the approach that is laid out in John J. Murphy's 'Technical analysis'.  Some of the things he says don't seem to be widely followed nowadays, such as verifying breakouts and head and shoulders with volume and patterns having more significance the longer they take to form.

I like to have looser stops and bet less per point.  TUI attracted me precisely because it was trading in a nice range, so you can short at the top and long at the bottom, but if it comes out with good earnings and breaks above the range then it's a good one to buy and hold.

Scanning for stocks with high ATR and trading on 5 - 15 minute charts is too much for me.  🤒

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As the heading of this post states, Count me as a Fool then.  I enjoy the fast paced opening session each morning of the stock market, my screen lighting up red and green dots all over the place, Buy - Sell $50 profit, $30 loss, $20 profit, $60 profit trades in the 1st 5mins. talk about adrenaline racing. I used to manage my own SMSF, my accountant said dont do it, i didnt have enough, leave it to the Big Boys, they know what there doing. So i did it any way, lol. took my super from $65K to $95K in the first year, trading shares and the ASX200 index with CFD's, told the accountant to shove it where it dont shine and moved on. Next year i dropped it back down to $70K and then due to other business circumstances had to stop the SMSF.

I started again late last year day trading after quitting my job, due to the loss of a good mate from suicide i got a bit messed up in the head and couldnt go to work. So staying home day trading seemed a logical choice for some one who had a messed up head, but i had a strategy plan, trading guidelines i had set myself. 4 weeks in and $16K lost my wife told me to get a real job and stop losing money, lol, so i stopped.

And now im back, already thinking WTF am i doing here, lol. I found Metatrader 4 via IG. I was telemarketed a few weeks back by a company offering me a trial period on the currency market with a auto trader program on MT4. I like the fact an auto trade program can stick to my trading rules better than me, as emotion creeps in too easy, so this sort of trading im up for a trial. Has any body else herd of FBM Experts in QLD? they want to charge like $3000 a pair for an auto trade program, i should be able to get something written/coded much cheaper, so i have the bug back to trade.

If any 1 is good at creating an EA please message me

Here comes another Fool!! 

Cheers

DJ
 

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Guest Jason

Seriously, if you want to be successful trading you must treat it like a business, not a sport. You are not trading against the broker, the market or anyone else. Most of the time you are trading against your own ego, physiology or mental state. You are trading against yourself. If you enjoy the adrenaline and excitement of trading, you are probably doing it wrong. 

If you don't want to lose money, don't do it until you know what you are doing. If you practice on a demo account, make sure you treat every profit and every loss as if it were real money. Keep a detailed log of why you entered the trade, why you set your stop-loss and target where you did and why you exited the trade. Does your plan work? 

Good luck. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, davidbrister said:

 So staying home day trading seemed a logical choice for some one who had a messed up head

🤣

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I don't know how anyone can be successful day trading unless they start with a big balance and can make meaningful profit from just a few points/pips movement.

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26 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't know how anyone can be successful day trading unless they start with a big balance and can make meaningful profit from just a few points/pips movement.

It's horses for courses @dmedin, lots of traders can't leave a trade alone for 2 seconds without jumping in to make adjustments and mucking it all up 😀

If you have the temperament for it and have learnt how to read a chart live rather than just it's history then remember that charts move step wise and so the straight line might be 100 ticks but the total up ticks to get there may well have been 150, two steps forward one step back.

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@dmedin,

Day trading must be mastered just like Trend Following, Swing Trading, etc. None of these are easy and they are all incredibly difficult.

One must learn the art of trading such methodologies. It takes a lot of time, effort and dedication but it can all be down and there are traders who are very successful at day trading. 

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yes i was far more successful at it earlier when i was managing my SMSF.

@dmedin, I started my day trading with $20K, and i set out with a goal to make $100-150 a day which equalled what i was earning in my job previous, once hitting that mark i would stop trading. but i got caught up in that market drop back in august september last year and had trades i left on over night cost me big time. all good learning curves just expensive lessons.

@Caseynotes, running with a live chart is great, getting to a certain point and then adding another trade to double up while its still moving in the positive direction, if you get a good run going in for a 3rd dip to really boost profits is sweet but not as common.

I was only trading @$5  a point on the asx200 index, so only needed 20 movement points to get my $100, while that sounds easy enough, it would take me about 30mins to 1.5hours each morning depending on the chart activity.


Do any of you use the Auto Trade EA's? or do you do everything manual? 

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19 hours ago, davidbrister said:

yes i was far more successful at it earlier when i was managing my SMSF.

@dmedin, I started my day trading with $20K, and i set out with a goal to make $100-150 a day which equalled what i was earning in my job previous, once hitting that mark i would stop trading. but i got caught up in that market drop back in august september last year and had trades i left on over night cost me big time. all good learning curves just expensive lessons.

@Caseynotes, running with a live chart is great, getting to a certain point and then adding another trade to double up while its still moving in the positive direction, if you get a good run going in for a 3rd dip to really boost profits is sweet but not as common.

I was only trading @$5  a point on the asx200 index, so only needed 20 movement points to get my $100, while that sounds easy enough, it would take me about 30mins to 1.5hours each morning depending on the chart activity.


Do any of you use the Auto Trade EA's? or do you do everything manual? 

@davidbrister

On 11/05/2019 at 00:45, davidbrister said:

As the heading of this post states, Count me as a Fool then.  I enjoy the fast paced opening session each morning of the stock market, my screen lighting up red and green dots all over the place, Buy - Sell $50 profit, $30 loss, $20 profit, $60 profit trades in the 1st 5mins. talk about adrenaline racing. I used to manage my own SMSF, my accountant said dont do it, i didnt have enough, leave it to the Big Boys, they know what there doing. So i did it any way, lol. took my super from $65K to $95K in the first year, trading shares and the ASX200 index with CFD's, told the accountant to shove it where it dont shine and moved on. Next year i dropped it back down to $70K and then due to other business circumstances had to stop the SMSF.

I started again late last year day trading after quitting my job, due to the loss of a good mate from suicide i got a bit messed up in the head and couldnt go to work. So staying home day trading seemed a logical choice for some one who had a messed up head, but i had a strategy plan, trading guidelines i had set myself. 4 weeks in and $16K lost my wife told me to get a real job and stop losing money, lol, so i stopped.

And now im back, already thinking WTF am i doing here, lol. I found Metatrader 4 via IG. I was telemarketed a few weeks back by a company offering me a trial period on the currency market with a auto trader program on MT4. I like the fact an auto trade program can stick to my trading rules better than me, as emotion creeps in too easy, so this sort of trading im up for a trial. Has any body else herd of FBM Experts in QLD? they want to charge like $3000 a pair for an auto trade program, i should be able to get something written/coded much cheaper, so i have the bug back to trade.

If any 1 is good at creating an EA please message me

Here comes another Fool!! 

Cheers

DJ
 

@davidbrister

You don't need an EA on MT4, if you down load Pro-real charts you can program your strategy without any code in no time, no programming required, all you need is a good strategy and a bit of common sense, also they are free on your demo account so you can test your strategy before you go live.

Good luck my friend.

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Posted (edited)

 

On 12/05/2019 at 00:58, davidbrister said:

I was only trading @$5  a point on the asx200 index, so only needed 20 movement points to get my $100, while that sounds easy enough, it would take me about 30mins to 1.5hours each morning depending on the chart activity.

 

Good Lord, I would be willing to slog 10 - 12 hours a day if I could be net $100 up every single day.

Edited by dmedin

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Well okay, maybe 6 - 8 hours.  $200 for 12 :D

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10 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

 

Good Lord, I would be willing to slog 10 - 12 hours a day if I could be net $100 up every single day.

LOL, the $100 a day was the easy part i thought, i got cocky and left trades on over night only to find the market dropped and i didnt have the capital to keep holding the trade, shame, as the market always bounces back, it just went too low for my capital.

Are you saying then you dont get $100 a day from trading?

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Posted (edited)

Not yet ... only been at it for 9 months!

Edited by dmedin

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I feel incredibly stupid today.  Trying to find information on trading these days just takes you to websites where people want to sell you access to their trading courses.  Even books written nowadays contain references to 'visit my website and sign up for my course for more info'.

If I was to say that only big institutions benefit from actual trading, and individuals only benefit from selling courseware to gullible and stupid retail 'investors' like me would I be exposing myself to the accusation of 'are you a stupid idiot?  What took you so long to realize that?  There must be something wrong with you.'

Day trading sets off massive alarm bells for me in particular.

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

Even books written nowadays contain references to 'visit my website and sign up for my course for more info'.

But why would that automatically invalidate the material presented. Some people know the theory but struggle to actually make it work (everyone), that doesn't invalidate the theory. These people often become educators instead of practitioners, in fact our schools and universities couldn't work without them. 

Everyone spends a lot of time (money) learning the theory, some package and present it as educational material for new learners, often they will offer sections for free as a sample. Browse the free stuff and take it at face value, discard it if you see no value, there should never be an obligation to buy and it's probably possible to collect the free samples from many educators and make up an entire course 🙂 

I've tried to make such a collection in the 'Technical Analysis' thread, the original thread was bigger but got trolled to death by nay sayers so I started all over again, but it is worth a browse as you might find fresh ideas to overcome specific problem areas.

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You're right that there is a lot of available information and a lot of it is free. 

If I could make money reliably from teaching people about TA, or presenting strategies for clients without committing my own money, I would do that instead of actually placing trades.  Seriously.  Because I do not believe that any individual without a large existing portfolio or at least £500,000 cash has any possibility of making a living from day trading.  And I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary.  All of IG's people are employees, even although they are experts in TA and some of them are bound to have a lot of money saved up.  To me that just shows that they would never be able to live off TA on their own account.

 

 

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@dmedin,

Yes, there is a lot of information available which we can all access if we wish to. Personally in my opinion, a serious trader, should not rely on others and people they do not know to acquire knowledge. They should be finding the reading material themselves and learning. If they read something they do not understand then they should be asking questions to say the IG Community to see if anyone can explain. They should not just take any answer given as fact and should test it, challenge it if necessary and really question what they are learning.

If a serious trader cannot find reading material themselves then I do worry how they are going to ever succeed in trading markets which is extremely difficult and full of risks day after day and hour after hour. Some of the basic questions that are asked on the IG Community are worrying. I accept that these are new to trading but I think it takes a certain type of personality, mindset and strength to last a long time in trading.

Spread Betting is not for everyone. In fact I would suggest anyone new to trading to stay away from Spread Betting until they acquire more knowledge and experience in trading and are able to test a trading strategy which is able to utilise any Spread Betting platform. 

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