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1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

It was shortly after this I went live, but didn't adjust for a smaller £1400 account.  so got stopped out frequently.

 

 

Hence the reason why those with deeper pockets (rich) always get richer.  They can absorb bigger losses, and 'hang on in there' till the price comes back in their favour.  We're like the dogs, having to be content with the crumbs that fall from the master's dinner table.  :D

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@nit2wynit,

@dmedin makes an important point. Those who trade with very deep pockets have an advantage. They can set a more distant stop loss and absorb trades for longer which go against them compared to a trader who has very little capital. This is a very real and a very important issue for you going forwards.

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If it takes ten years' experience and an enormous outlay in training expenses, the question is, who in their right mind would want to do it - other than people who have been working in the financial services industry as traders for decades and have enough money and experience to go it alone?

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5 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

@TrendFollower Good tip today for FTSE100.  It's not something i usually consider.  Demoing as if I had 2k account I've made about £200 today (Since i started at 1pm) but lost some too.  The one's i lost is where I left the screen.  As I'm having to live with Automatic stop limits.  up £106.  I just need to do this everyday without the losses :D

NEVER leave a trade open if your not sitting there watching it, it stops 2 things, a) if the trade drops and havent set a stop and more importantly b) The power of I am Great! - if you start making wins when u leave the screen, u get an invincible persona build up of this is easy, i can make money,  i know what im doing, start leaving trades on overnight and other stupid mistakes that will come back and bite you in the **** big time. I lost $8000 over night back in September last year, i had 4 trades on, the index was slowly moving up, given the history of the index i would be safe to leave no stops as it hadnt gone back for ages and when i awoke, my trades were stopped out and my trading account had something like 32cents in it, i did that twice in a fortnight, just to make sure i learnt my lesson properly.

 


 

 

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Really 

B

U

T

T

was a rude word, that needed bleeping out in my previous post, LOL

 

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@dmedin,

I cannot speak for others but I am not a full time trader. I am an investor first and foremost. I only trade if I identify a strong trending opportunity. Otherwise I am on the sidelines monitoring prices. So this may mean a few trades a month or even no trades a month depending on if the trends identified meet certain indicators / signals. 

There are traders who trade full time and are successful. The traders I know have one thing in common. They are very good at Mathematics. They have a superb Mathematical brain and can apply this to their trading models. Now that does necessarily mean one must have to be exceptional at Mathematics to succeed and be profitable in trading. It is just that those traders I know who are full time and successful happen to be exceptional at Mathematics. 

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Posted (edited)

@TrendFollower

I think very few of us could be full-time traders.  And I'm waiting to see evidence to the contrary.

1) I recently obtained a second hand copy of Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by the legendary Steve Nison (he 'singlehandedly' brought candlestick charting to the West - no mean feat, perhaps we should all be paying him a commission).  As you can see from his website www.candlecharts.com he has made his living not from trading using his own techniques, but from selling books, personalized training courses and the like.  The book itself is great and I don't doubt the usefulness of it, I just doubt that anyone can actually make a living simply by technical trading because of its inability to generate a consistent income (which providing speeches, training and books will do nicely).

2) All technical analysis makes sense 'after the fact', but it's actually only useful to the extent that it trains you to spot potential patterns forming 'before the fact'.

3) Almost all contemporary traders make their money off selling stuff: memberships to their websites, access to their training courses, so on and on.  The only guys who do actual buy and sell for a living are doing so on behalf of companies with far deeper pockets and better hedging strategies.  Most financial professionals make their bread and butter from fees rather than from speculation.

 

As always I am open to being proved wrong.  But at this time I am 95% confident that day trading is in the same category as all those promises you see on the internet to 'get paid for your opinion', 'make money working from home', 'get a surplus iPhone for $40'.

Edited by dmedin
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@dmedin,

There may be some full time traders here on the IG Community, I don't know. I am not a full time trader so I can only speak for myself. 

You do make an important point which is that technical analysis is based on historical activity. It cannot accurately forecast or predict the future though I accept some patterns have repeated themselves over the course of history on certain assets. This cannot be ignored. 

I think trading has a lot to do with anticipation and assumption based modelling. When a trader anticipates, they will begin to form and make assumptions. They will then test these assumptions by placing trades. I keep my trading very simple. What I would like to know is whether complicated trading can make more profits than simple trading. I will never know that answer here as I would not discuss my personal trading details here on such a forum and nor would any other person one would assume. I am not convinced that someone applying high level technical analysis, charts , complex theories can outperform someone who does not. Profit maximisation is a key fundamental to a profitable and ultimately a successful trader.

Risk management and capital protection strategies will ensure that a trader keeps their losses to a minimum. This is very important. Capital protection is vital for SURVIVAL. That does not necessarily make them a successful or profitable trader. It is the trader who can identify and trade the right asset at the right time and maximise the amount of profit from trading that particular trend either 'Long' or 'Short' more often than not which is the KEY factor in my personal opinion. 

A trader that does not trade certain assets because of their personal views will miss out on some big profit making trading potential. A trader must be able to identity the strongest trending assets and then be able to trade them both 'Long' and 'Short'. This could be a Cryptocurrency, a Commodity, a Share, an Index, etc. Now there could be occasions when a couple of Cryptocurrencies and a few Commodities happen to be the strongest trending so the trader would allocate their capital to those trades. 

So to give an example. Someone trading say Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash since the start of the year could have outperformed someone who has an excellent trading system, is very intelligence and applies complex technical analysis because they were trading a weaker trending asset and the profit potential on Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash using leverage would achieve far greater levels of profits than the weaker trending assets. They could have just placed a trading using simple moving averages to make a decision and still beat the high level technical analysis traders. This is assuming both had the same level of starting capital. Capital allocation when trading is crucial and if it is allocated effectively and efficiently with profit potential and profit maximisation in mind then it can make a big difference in a traders financial results at the end of the year. Missing out on the strongest and biggest trends will make it difficult for traders to have any level of decent performance as there will be plenty of losses on the way when the trades have gone against you.

Complexity does not necessarily lead to better performance. All it means is that person may have a higher level of intelligence when dealing with mathematics, charts, analysis, etc. I know a lot of very wealthy and intelligent people but they could not invest or trade to save their lives. They would not have a clue. A trader needs inner strength and a certain type of personality. It is not for everyone and those who do not make it may lack it. Reading and research is a must. Understanding what is happening and why as asset price is behaving is very important. Fundamental analysis can be just as important as technical analysis and I think a fusion of them both can help. So when Orange Juice and Lumber had positive price there was a background story running as to why. It is understanding that why and linking it to the price action which can really help the trader understand the asset they are looking to trade.

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

As always I am open to being proved wrong.  But at this time I am 95% confident that day trading is in the same category as all those promises you see on the internet to 'get paid for your opinion', 'make money working from home', 'get a surplus iPhone for $40'.

Do any noobs come into trading with the understanding it is a  profession rather than thinking it's a casino and hoping they will get lucky? And I am waiting to see evidence to the contrary.

Reading TA for dummies over the weekend and start trading on Monday morning is the plan for most but for some reason it just doesn't work.

There are high profile social media types you do mentoring etc but most traders don't go down that path, those that do SM and prove to be successful over years inevitably get plagued by noobs looking for short cuts and begging for mentorship.  

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46 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Do any noobs come into trading with the understanding it is a  profession rather than thinking it's a casino and hoping they will get lucky? And I am waiting to see evidence to the contrary.

Reading TA for dummies over the weekend and start trading on Monday morning is the plan for most but for some reason it just doesn't work.

There are high profile social media types you do mentoring etc but most traders don't go down that path, those that do SM and prove to be successful over years inevitably get plagued by noobs looking for short cuts and begging for mentorship.  

 

A better question to ask is why all the leading lights of TA abandon trading as a full-time profession at the first chance they get and go into training/mentoring/speaking/authoring instead.  Could it be because they find it a LOT easier to make a sustainable income from teaching rather than practising?  And if so, why? 

If I was making good money trading, the very LAST thing I would want to do is continually provide training, speaking or write about how to trade day in and day out ... why the hell would I do that when I can raise a family, travel, read and generally just enjoy life?

 

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

A better question to ask is why all the leading lights of TA abandon trading as a full-time profession at the first chance they get and go into training/mentoring/speaking/authoring instead.  Could it be because they find it a LOT easier to make a sustainable income from teaching rather than practising?  And if so, why? 

If I was making good money trading, the very LAST thing I would want to do is continually provide training, speaking or write about how to trade day in and day out ... why the hell would I do that when I can raise a family, travel, read and generally just enjoy life?

 

When you say 'leading lights' you mean the 20 or so high profile social media types on twitter (forget the scammers on insta) but that is to ignore hundreds of thousands of traders.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

When you say 'leading lights' you mean the 20 or so high profile social media types on twitter (forget the scammers on insta) but that is to ignore hundreds of thousands of traders.

Haha well I meant the leading lights like Steve Nison (candlesticks), Martin J. Pring, and the other big names who have successful businesses, widely-read books, and so on. I would be surprised if they spend much of their time day trading any more.

Edited by dmedin

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Haha well I meant the leading lights like Steve Nison (candlesticks), Martin J. Pring, and the other big names who have successful businesses, widely-read books, and so on. I would be surprised if they spend much of their time day trading any more.

Ok, yes many do write books etc but still only a fraction of the thousands. Sat in front of the charts 8 hours a day you don't want to miss anything but you do actually have spare time, I actually listen into and contribute to a couple of forums as well as twitter and yes I do pass onto the forum here stuff from social media but will credit it to the author where I can and not 'rehash' as my own work as some on this forum would have you believe.

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Call me a fool.  I feel it important to keep you all up to date with my progress.

I've been posting screen shots of my Wins on the Demo.  I have been easily achieving around £100 per day (2hrs) with 80% winning trades.

I've gone Live again today for the 2nd time with 2k.

I've lost 90% of my trades and down £230 in 3hrs  on the FTSE.   £55 on Uber in 2 seconds.  I've already been sick once.

Something is clearly not right here.  Even using the lowest stake I can't win £2.  The chart appears to freeze for a moment when I Buy in.  then it reverses.  I noticed this a few months ago when I started and commented that my Buy In almost always becomes the point of reversal.  I went back to the Demo (back then) and proved a winning streak.  went back Live lost it all again.
 I know we're going to put it down to psychology and fear of Loss.


I don't know what to think.

 

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Hmm that is very strange...

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44 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Call me a fool.  I feel it important to keep you all up to date with my progress.

I've been posting screen shots of my Wins on the Demo.  I have been easily achieving around £100 per day (2hrs) with 80% winning trades.

I've gone Live again today for the 2nd time with 2k.

I've lost 90% of my trades and down £230 in 3hrs  on the FTSE.   £55 on Uber in 2 seconds.  I've already been sick once.

Something is clearly not right here.  Even using the lowest stake I can't win £2.  The chart appears to freeze for a moment when I Buy in.  then it reverses.  I noticed this a few months ago when I started and commented that my Buy In almost always becomes the point of reversal.  I went back to the Demo (back then) and proved a winning streak.  went back Live lost it all again.
 I know we're going to put it down to psychology and fear of Loss.


I don't know what to think.

 

@nit2wynit,  here's a test you can do, open up the demo on one browser page then open up the live platform on another browser page. Set them both upside by side on ftse 1 second charts and watch;

nt2.thumb.PNG.c3b85964e4ebf31177517af11c953d1e.PNG

they move identically. But more importantly see how fast price changes and how frequent the gaps are, this is what you are trying to trade.

Going back to the other thread where you posted the day's demo trade history.

nt1.PNG.8a2f677ae306580c95b0e45922d40d1c.PNG

Just looking at the ftse trades you are using large size to make just a couple of points, that would be hard enough using a price ladder or a tick chart but if you are using a candle chart ... well, just look at the top picture again.

Yes it's a lot easier on demo because size doesn't matter, but it does on a live chart, you are constantly aware that a fast 3 tick move against you on top of the spread puts you seriously offside in the space of a slit second, that makes you jumpy, no wonder you made yourself sick. You say you dropped down in size after losses but it was too late by then, once the confidence has been wreaked you need to stop and look back at the plan.

Starting off on the live platform with large size with a strategy that needs very quick reactions just causes anxiety driven decisions and they don't tend to work out to well.

 

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Apologies I meant to edit my post but couldn't ...

Sorry to hear that :(

Caseynotes is right, use much smaller per-point sizes ... use the absolute minimum and establish whether you can consistently make a profit or not, doesn't matter if you make only small profit, the point is not to jump in at the deep end and to test your method using smallest possible sizes to begin with and keeping losses down.

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Thanks for stopping by @Caseynotes @dmedin

Yeah.........what else is there to say.  Must be the fear!  I'm £600 down now since march.  Hundreds could have been made today on the FTSE but I was clearly not in a the right mind.

The Demo practice was with a 2k account too.  £5 per point.  5pt stop loss.  I rarely let it go past £15) Margin of around £1800.  I concentrated mostly on £10 wins but literally every trade (bar 2 or 3) went the other way.  Un-believable Statistically.

This is the complete opposite of what I've been achieving on the Demo.

What this space to see what I'm down tomorrow lol.


FML.thumb.jpg.41abe6c8d5decf8e3b741eea7f1561c2.jpg

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In my experience (for what that is worth lol!) the easiest and surest way to lose all your money is to have tight stops and high per-point bets, trading in very short time frames.

I wouldn't recommend that approach to anyone ... zoom out to the weekly, daily, and have looser stops with the minimum £ per point ...

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Posted (edited)

I'll try again tomorrow and see if that works.  My stops are a direct relation to the movement within the trend.  

Today i just had every Bet going the wrong way.  We'll see.  Whatch this space for a bankruptcy notice. :D lol

Edited by nit2wynit
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If you're confident of your stops then you just need to bet less per point till you get into a rhythm - minimum for FTSE is just 0.50 :)

 

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48 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I'll try again tomorrow and see if that works.  My stops are a direct relation to the movement within the trend.  

Today i just had every Bet going the wrong way.  We'll see.  Whatch this space for a bankruptcy notice. :D lol

Tomorrow will be different because .... 🤨   What did you discover from the end of day post mortem?

The day proved to be an uptrending day. You had 9 long trades with 5 winners and 4 losers which is fine. 

The problem was the 18 short trades of which 14 were losers and 4 were winners.

So you need some way of determining the intraday direction of price action.

Consider something like a 20 period smoothed sma.

image.thumb.png.5c6fcaa4f43ccc78bd7de53700c016e8.png

 

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1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

I'll try again tomorrow and see if that works.  My stops are a direct relation to the movement within the trend.  

Today i just had every Bet going the wrong way.  We'll see.  Whatch this space for a bankruptcy notice. :D lol

@nit2wynit

First, find the direction of the day then use a scalping curve such as @Caseynotes has suggested but only trade in one direction that will keep your losses down and your head straight, if you have the direction right you will get a few good scalps and that's all you need. There will be pullbacks and corrections but these just reload your gun.

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@nit2wynit

This is FTSE Today from 08:00 I can see three great Long scalps, should have been a great day. I hope this helps & good luck

UKX-1-minute.png

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I'm lost with that one ...

Fascinating to see so many different analyses.  The ones on here totally different from Josh Mahoney's today.  Don't blame anyone for being confused.  I am starting to really despise short-term trading, even hourly charts just seem to be 'noise'.

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm lost with that one ...

Fascinating to see so many different analyses.  The ones on here totally different from Josh Mahoney's today.  Don't blame anyone for being confused.  I am starting to really despise short-term trading, even hourly charts just seem to be 'noise'.

Don't get me wrong, I don't scalp, I don't trade on M1 charts & I don't trade FTSE so there are far too many lines for scalping, but I did hope even you would see some sense in the obvious direction of the trade. If you can't see 3 x 20 points you could easily have scalped you may be well advised to put your money back in the bank.

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I totally effed up today.  Like I'd never even seen a chart before.

I know it was fear.  I knew I was going live today and didn't sleep well.  Was up at 6.  Watching Pre market from 7-8.  Read about Trump, Brexit and FTSE NEWS and I actually was expecting a huge drop.  So right off the bat i was in the wrong mindset.  I kept waiting for it to drop.. It didn't, it just kept going up, then when it did reverse, i went all in thinking this was the big drop only  for it to change direction.  Like it can be seen in hindsight, today was an uptrend.  I know I have a bad habit of trying to anticipate the breakouts.  

Then I seen that Uber was being investigated for Tax,  It dropped massively today, and tried to get in on it.  I was already £100 under at this point.  The drop was aggressive and stopped me out immediately for £54 loss.

Thanks for the feedback folks.  Here to fight another day.

 

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@Foxy I play for 2pts at 5 per point.  Ironically it's safer as it's quicker.  Most up and downs patters are 5-10pts, unless i lose focus and get stuck in a 3pt up and down consolidation, so happy if I can grab 2 or 3 of them providing I've gone in the right direction in the first place.  I know it's risky as it's proven today.  Pre market actually dropped about 20 pts to start the day, so thought it was setting up for a big drop.

I need to reset.

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14 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Foxy I play for 2pts at 5 per point.  Ironically it's safer as it's quicker.  Most up and downs patters are 5-10pts, unless i lose focus and get stuck in a 3pt up and down consolidation, so happy if I can grab 2 or 3 of them providing I've gone in the right direction in the first place.  I know it's risky as it's proven today.  Pre market actually dropped about 20 pts to start the day, so thought it was setting up for a big drop.

I need to reset.

Hey Buddy, thats pretty tight and ultimately whats causing you to lose, i always use the Minute charts, along with the chart what indicators are you watching at the same time to give you and indication of what the market is doing? ie: Bollenger Bands, Macd? 

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