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Is spread betting for fools?

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I use Volume, Bollinger and MACD bud.  1 minute chart.  It's not the stops that got me, it's the direction.  I was convinced all day it was going to drop.  I was playing too close and panicked, then got stuck in the Drop Mindset.  I keep trying to anticipate it. I know better of my own mistakes.


1st Day Live since March.  Back on it tomorrow with fresh eyes and smaller bets.  Cheers

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41 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Foxy I play for 2pts at 5 per point.  Ironically it's safer as it's quicker.  Most up and downs patters are 5-10pts, unless i lose focus and get stuck in a 3pt up and down consolidation, so happy if I can grab 2 or 3 of them providing I've gone in the right direction in the first place.  I know it's risky as it's proven today.  Pre market actually dropped about 20 pts to start the day, so thought it was setting up for a big drop.

I need to reset.

I don't understand how you think it's safer to work on 2pts

UKX-1-hour.png

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@Foxy  I don't understand how you don't understand. :D

move 2 pts.  Take £10 profit.  Move 2 pts take 10 profit.  Do this 20 times.  Some of the reversals in that chart are nearly 20 pts.  I don't want to be sitting at the screen all day.  I want to do 2 hrs and do something else.

That chart is also hindsight.  Of course it's easy to show i and out points.

Tell me, what's your Bid on those moves?  Stop loss, Margin etc.?

Thanks

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3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Foxy  I don't understand how you don't understand. :D

move 2 pts.  Take £10 profit.  Move 2 pts take 10 profit.  Do this 20 times.  Some of the reversals in that chart are nearly 20 pts.  I don't want to be sitting at the screen all day.  I want to do 2 hrs and do something else.

That chart is also hindsight.  Of course it's easy to show i and out points.

Tell me, what's your Bid on those moves?  Stop loss, Margin etc.?

Thanks

20pts @ £1.00 = £20 but 20pts @ £5.00 = £100 You need to give the market 20pts to move anything less will end in you getting wiped out over and over, this s your problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

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10 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

  I don't want to be sitting at the screen all day.  I want to do 2 hrs and do something else.

Tell hows that working out for you???????????

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Woooow. It's not my problem.  most moves are 2pts or more.  Providing I get the direction right I'm in and out in seconds.  I play higher and shorter.  I can't play 20pts for 5 because my Stop loss would be too great.  Pull back could wipe out any profits and put me £100 under on £20!!!!!!!

 I don't risk that much on a bet.

My problem today was assumption it was going down.  Fear of loss.  Panic from loss.  Throwing up then basically Gambling.

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4 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Woooow. It's not my problem.  most moves are 2pts or more.  Providing I get the direction right I'm in and out in seconds.  I play higher and shorter.  I can't play 20pts for 5 because my Stop loss would be too great.  Pull back could wipe out any profits and put me £100 under on £20!!!!!!!

 I don't risk that much on a bet.

My problem today was assumption it was going down.  Fear of loss.  Panic from loss.  Throwing up then basically Gambling.

Ok, I give up you know best.

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I've just started at this Foxy.  3 weeks back in March then today!

How's it working out for me?  Great pal, thanks.  Learning.

Put your own advice to the test.  Tell me.  FTSE.  2k account.  You want to play £5 pp for 20pts.  What's your stop loss?  you asked me no questions at all about what I need to make per day to be worthwhile, so I'll tell you.  £50.

Thanks for your help but your tone no longer serves me.

Give up?  you're assumed everthing and asked nothing.

thanks.  No need to help me anymore.

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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Tomorrow will be different because .... 🤨   What did you discover from the end of day post mortem?

The day proved to be an uptrending day. You had 9 long trades with 5 winners and 4 losers which is fine. 

The problem was the 18 short trades of which 14 were losers and 4 were winners.

So you need some way of determining the intraday direction of price action.

Consider something like a 20 period smoothed sma.

image.thumb.png.5c6fcaa4f43ccc78bd7de53700c016e8.png

 

What will be different?  I have less money than yesterday.  More fear/respect for the money I have left.  Won't assume a trend direction.  Bet smaller, with bigger stop.  Play longer.  Make sure the volume is higher than 100.  :D

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Is spread betting for fools?

The definition of a fool is somebody who does the same thing over and over again but expects a different outcome, I would say no spread betting is not for fools because a fool would carry on doing the same thing over and over regardless of how much money he or she had lost and keep on expecting a different result. A fool would keep on blaming everything else except him or her self for the situation they are in, but let's not be too hard on them because we need 80% losers to pay for the 20% winners.

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You clearly skip read Foxy.  I literally called myself the Fool.

3 weeks of live trading is hardly making the same mistakes over and over.  I made one mistake today.  The whole session was the mistake.  The mindset I started with was a mistake.  I haven't blamed anyone or anything.  

you do realise this isn't my thread right?

 

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Why have you gone from being helpful and informative, to critical, sarcastic and rude Foxy?  

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Yesterday was big loss day.  I feel as if looking at short time lines is a bit like examining a single tree with a microscope while the rest of the wood is burning around you.  I am jealous of people who can work with short time frames, I just can't.  And it makes me feel like ****.

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11 hours ago, Foxy said:

 If you can't see 3 x 20 points you could easily have scalped you may be well advised to put your money back in the bank.

 

:D

The problem is that, with TA in general, everything fits into place on a chart 'after the fact'.  In the heat of the moment, with the best of intentions looking at one's MAs, oscillators and candlestick patterns, the price can easily and abruptly change course and stop you out without warning.

It's hell on earth.  I need to get a job.

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@dmedin I literally started looking for a job yesterday lol.

I know most of what I'm doing wrong.  Even now, got up late, missed the  climb on the FTSE, but i was in no rush after yesterday.  But also, I'm hanging around in the FTSE and there's no Volume.  It's barely moving.  I've decided I should be following the US market.  There's plenty of info to be gathered.  Other's posting Pre market Gappers and such using scanners.  

I thought I was having a breakdown yesterday.  But all day I waited for it to drop.  It didn't.  Now today has news too saying it's doing well.  Started with a huge spike.  Is it coming down, or going up??  Who knows.

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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

:D

The problem is that, with TA in general, everything fits into place on a chart 'after the fact'.  In the heat of the moment, with the best of intentions looking at one's MAs, oscillators and candlestick patterns, the price can easily and abruptly change course and stop you out without warning.

It's hell on earth.  I need to get a job.

@dmedin

Take a look at the H1 chart above with the text bubbles on it. Note the red line above all else, that tells me to play shorts. OK now I just need a high to sell, wait for the high. On the enter short @ 7336 notice the black line crosses the other red line going down, that tells me we are likely turning down so I now enter short. wait until the black line turns back up and close for good or bad, How easy is that. No macd, rsi, elliot waves or fundamentals just sma. Just get on a demo and find and few good sma's you like to use and build a strategy from there.

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33 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yesterday was big loss day.  I feel as if looking at short time lines is a bit like examining a single tree with a microscope while the rest of the wood is burning around you.  I am jealous of people who can work with short time frames, I just can't.  And it makes me feel like ****.

There should be no big loss days unless you are repeatedly betting against the run of play, don't do that. It's usually caused by trying to trade breakouts and reversals, don't do that.

There should only be 3 possible outcomes to any single trade; a small loss, a small win/break even, or a large win.

Anything else suggests your risk/reward is badly skewered.

There will be a battle at support and resistance, keep out, wait for price to move on to the next level and look for a pullback to get aboard. The stop is placed just behind the pullback because if the pullback turns into a reversal the trade idea is invalidated.

The chart below is M1 but the same structure appears on any time frame. Keep out of the rectangles and look for entries on a sloping MA between them.

image.thumb.png.84e0f39d95a6f5e5bf628153d1aabd39.png

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Take a look at this.  Typical of me.  Followed the trend but bought the drop instead of the pullback.  Now a waiting game to keep hold of £10.

Typical.thumb.jpg.2344d64a218a00239e382c053bd96321.jpg

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you can see from the image above my Buy In literally became the turning point again.  Stopped out and full reversal.  It's now going up.  Those big moves are 7-8-9 pts.  I managed to grab £5.5 but got stopped out for £11.  So down again.

Retire? :D

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12 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Take a look at this.  Typical of me.  Followed the trend but bought the drop instead of the pullback.  Now a waiting game to keep hold of £10.

If looking to sell on pullbacks you are waiting too long. Pullback x 1 = forward x 2 is a typical move but you waited til x 2 the pullback before entering and run straight into the next pullback.

image.thumb.png.23d11d82e703d00900a3bb724e5b7ace.png

 

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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Right, where' this going? 

It's retesting the prior high, wait to see who wins then look for an opportunity to catch a ride to the next level be it up or down.

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@Caseynotes hahahaha I'm becoming my own Joke; my own Cautionary Tale.  Bought in, immediately reversed and stopped me out lolololol.
hahahah.thumb.jpg.643b1bbc11c025a21791917fc76b93ae.jpg

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Not sure what you were trying to do, there were always going to be sellers waiting there, what happened to 'wait and see' 🤨

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I'd already gone in Casey before I  your post arrived :(

I've bought in at 7246 @ 0.5pp with a 20pt stop sitting at around 7228 resistance.  I'll leave it to win or fail for -£9 then call it a week.   I clearly need to go back to the drawing board and start again.  Thought I'd got rid of my bad habits on the demo.  Clearly I haven't.

Thanks to all for advice.  I may not be suited to this at all.  Down on the day again already. -£10

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any ideas where the DOW will go next please as it had a good day yesterday?

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2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I'd already gone in Casey before I  your post arrived

Fair enough, I stopped playing breakouts a long time ago, you end up trapped too many times, that's why I say wait for the first pullback.

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Thanks guys some good advice there.  Yes ... 15 mins with a 100 SMA seems to be good ... the 20 and 50 seem useful too.  Will experiment.

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I still plan to keep doing some 'traditional' stuff (daily, weekly, stochs, triangles) 'on the side' though.  :D

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