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Stock market turning points - are we there yet?

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WOW @Mercury, I guess you're more than a little bearish on the outlook for us equities. I must say the long term chart looks very overbought me to, I just thought I'd share a chart. The long term support and resistance on the weekly DJI using a support zone from the high and low of June 2016 and the resistance zone from the last high down to the low in March. One thing about this chart is even if there is a significant breakout above the last high it will only move the resistance zone even higher, sooner or later the bears will have their day. The only reservation I have is how low it could go from there, I am sure it will depend on the global outlook at the time.us30-w1-ig-group-limited.png

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Sorry. I just updated my chart with a FIB going back to the 2008 low. My support zone is close to 50% retracement, so it sure could go even lower. We live in interesting times!!us30-w1-ig-group-limited-2.png

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52 minutes ago, FOXY said:

WOW @Mercury, I guess you're more than a little bearish on the outlook for us equities. I must say the long term chart looks very overbought me to, I just thought I'd share a chart. The long term support and resistance on the weekly DJI using a support zone from the high and low of June 2016 and the resistance zone from the last high down to the low in March. One thing about this chart is even if there is a significant breakout above the last high it will only move the resistance zone even higher, sooner or later the bears will have their day. The only reservation I have is how low it could go from there, I am sure it will depend on the global outlook at the time.

I can't find a way to edit my post, I should have said:

from the high and low of June 2016 and the resistance zone from the last high down to the low in April.

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@Foxy

Apologies I didn't see that you had responded as the @tag doesn't seem to have worked.  Anyway to respond, I am very bearish the long term for very many reasons, which I have posted on in the past.  I have been of this mind set for several years, seeking to capitalise on the big drop when it comes.  However I have also been Long stocks in this period as price action dictates.  As a swing trader I am looking for medium term zigzags and long term trend changes.  My methodology is set up to identify these swings and to dip in with low exposure until a move sticks.

So have we seen the end of the US Bull?  Chatter would suggest we have but I am not convinced yet.  Looking at the chief Bull driver, the Tech industry Nasdaq index, there is an evens case for the top having been posted or another leg up.  The draw of the 8000 zone and that very long term resistance trend line (monthly chart previously posted) is surely alluring and there are sufficient "this time it is different", "new normal" type people around to drive a last gasp exhaustion rally, which I don't think we have seen yet.  On all the US majors, and also FTSE, Dax and Nikkei, price is at a significant support zone right now.  A rally here is to be expected after a sharp drop (zigzag) and would either carry to a fresh high, likely the end for me but lets see how price does, or if the ATH is in we will see a lower low in the from of an EWT 1-2 retrace and drop.

Technicals on NASDAQ Daily:

  1. We had the current ATH on very strong NMD and a potential break of a narrowing channel (not shown).  If this is the end of the Bull then a retrace to that channel breakout zone (circa Fib 76/78%) is on the cards.
  2. Price is now at a support zone and if it turns around the current point (or a little lower - i.e. 1 more leg down on the 1 Hour charts) then we will have a parallel channel to track.
  3. Stochastic and RSI are in over sold territory, this is about where a short term rally would be staged.  A longer term Bear would ignore this point.  Indicators are circumstantial not universal, you have to read them in context.
  4. Now that all the gaps on the way up are closed on all markets (there is still one on the Dax but much lower down) the way is clear for a rally.
  5. There are 2 large gaps in the current bearish move in most markets that remain un-closed.  Unless these transpire to be so-called breakaway gaps I expect them to be closed.  Critically the top most gap on Nasdaq, Nikkei and Dax are all at the ATH (or recent rally highs in the latter 2 cases), therefore a close of these would automatically deliver fresh highs in the bullish phase.
  6. COT data shows the net position as bullish but not overly so and growing despite the Bearish move.  The Non Commercials (Financials) don't buy the Bear yet it seems, but then they almost never do.  Still I would prefer to see more over exuberance in COT data at the end of this Bull, which suggest another leg up.
  7. Major market tops and bottoms largely (always maybe?) go unnoticed with no discernible trigger, despite news outlets doing analytical gymnastics to find reasons, well they have to don't they?  There is too much Trade deal chatter for my contrarian antennae just now so I am minded to expect that to be blown away with a fresh rally.
  8. SP500 is showing a similar picture but the DOW currently has not put in a fresh ATH and is showing a potential Head & Shoulders, albeit a very shallow one.  Chances are the Dow will post a fresh ATH before this is done.  If that happens we might expect fresh ATHs on Nasdaq and SP500 as well.  However we could get a close of the lower gap only, resulting in a breakaway gap at the top.  Also in this scenario we get divergence between the Dow and the other US large caps, which is a sign of a changing market.  Either way we get a rally first.  

It is interesting to note that only the US large caps are in fresh ATH territory.  Dax, FTSE100 and Nikkei look more like they have topped out some time ago and are in large scale retraces.  I have posted FTSE100 as an example.  Here the market looks much more like a pure retrace and we may have seen the top of that and a breakout of a Triangle formation, with a retrace rally to retest this channel.  However the current turning point would also be consistent with a parallel channel, which could indicate a new rally high to the Fib 76/78% zone.

In short then, it will be important to track all the related markets to sport where market turns are happening in coincidence to get a handle on this thing.  I would love to believe we have seen the tops now but I feel there is another twist int he tale to come yet.  End of May/early June should be an interesting time.  Sell in May and go Away, this time for ever...?

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So far looks like a turn off that support I was talking about has occurred.  To secure this move I would expect to see a small retrace back down, maybe to retest the lower channel line, which is looking like a decent channel at the moment.  A bounce off this would bring up one of the 2 scenarios I mentioned earlier, a retrace to a lower high or a rally to an fresh ATH and end of the Bull.

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Textbook Bounce and small 1-2 retrace to Fib 62% and then rally away, next stop 8000 and then we will see.

Traded this on the Dow as there looks to be more upside if the Dow is to make a fresh ATH.  27,500 anyone?

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After a small bounce off the potential parallel channel line (potential because it only have 2 touches including the recent one so not conclusive), the market has hit a retrace period.  Short term support will be important to see if this brings out the perma bulls.  A break of the overhead resistance signals a trend to fresh ATH for the DOW at least and likely all the US large Caps.  Other markets seem to be in retrace mode (i.e. will not see fresh ATHs as these markets have already peaked).  If this latter is true then the retrace price action is a better signal of an across the board rally end than the ATH points for obvious reasons.

My lead scenario is for fresh ATHs on US large caps coincident with critical resistance point retrace turns for other indices.  Secondary scenario is that end of Bull market has been seen and Dow put in a H&S top.  This will be indicated by a break below current short term support on the Dow.

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Turning back to the Nasdaq for a minute I am seeing an interesting development on the 1 hour chart in support of my Daily chart road map (as posted last Tuesday).  The end of week price action put in a lower low and dropped on the final hour of live trading, typically a Bearish signal, but in an end of rally stage there is often a lot of whipsaw action as Bulls and Bears slug it out.  The potential for an A-B-C retrace within a Flag consolidation is high.  If the market breaks down to the lower (speculative) line and turns around the Fib 50% and then rallies up through the short term resistance then the Flag will be confirmed.  So what?  Well the flag often marks the halfway point in a rally (+/- a bit) and is this is proven to be a Flag then the end of the rally would be, wait for it...

8000!

 

 

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Not a Flag on Nasdaq, rather a deep retrace and bounce off the lower channel line, making this a firmer line of support with 3 effective touches.  The Dow did make a pennant and is now breaking out and approaching the upper resistance of a short term range.  A breakout to the upside should bring up a fast rally, probably to fresh ATH to close the gap.  Same for Nasdaq.

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@Mercury What are the chances that the gaps made after Trumps tweets that Friday never gets closed and this is a H&S which would see the next big down leg beginning after this minor dead cat bounce / right shoulder. 

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@Theassistanttrader

Great question and a H&S on the Dow is a scenario I have penned in and perfectly valid, albeit very shallow so not exactly a strong one and therefore not one I would rely on at this point.  I would need to see a break of the recent lows (circa 25,200) to be confident of that scenario.  Had all the other US large caps also described a H&S there would be a stronger case but SP500 and Nasdaq made fresh ATHs.  The gap never getting closes point is what Chartists refer to as a breakaway gap, they are rare and occur at major market turns and significant continuation breakouts.  They are rarely right at the top of the market though (Nasdaq and SP500).  The Dow gap is not quite at the top so in theory this gap could be closed without a new ATH and keeping the H&S intact.  Other indices appear to be in retrace mode and not yet completed so my assessment at present, subject to continuing price action confirmation, is for more upside before this all shakes out for the Bears.

Net, the H&S on the Dow is valid at present but so is another ATH.  My approach is to look across all related markets (US large Caps, Russell 2000, Dax, FTSE100 and Nikkei plus USD-DX, Gold/Silver and HG Copper) to spot congruence of major turning points and/or breakouts to signal the markets have peaked or trends changed.  What is helpful here is that, to me, some of these markets have already trend changed so I am looking at retrace price action rather than ATHs.  The former are much easier to call obviously.

 

My current assessment is as follows:

  • Dow: possible H&S but fresh ATH more likely, subject to ongoing price action.
  • SP500: top of the market possible but fresh ATH more likely, subject to ongoing price action.
  • Nasdaq: top of the market possible but fresh ATH more likely, subject to ongoing price action.
  • FTSE: Top already in.  Wave 2 retrace likely in but one more leg up is possible, if wave 2 in then smaller retrace is due before big drop
  • Dax: similar to FTSE, Dax was the first to top out
  • Nikkei: Topped way back in Jan 1990 so on a completely different track but of the recent rally since the central bank interventions in 2008/9 to delay the credit crunch collapse (bias alert!) I believe this market has also topped and is in retrace.
  • USD -DX: has already bottomed out and is in long term rally but currently toying with a retrace bearish move prior to the main event.  Further breakout to the upside through key resistance would negate this scenario.
  • Gold/Silver: has bottomed out and is in retrace prior to a major rally.
  • HG Copper Topped out during the 2011 commodity peak but the recent rally has also topped out and is now in a Bearish trend.  However, since August 2018 this market has been in retrace rally mode, which some would refer to as consolidation.  I am not yet sure if this is done.  Could be another major rally to about the 30,000 level prior to a turn and drop or could drop through the 2018 lows to signal a major economic downturn and therefore stock market crash.

That's how I see it, I have threads on most if not all of the above if you want to see more detals, how do you see it?

 

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@Mercury

I'll just base my analysis on the DJI SP and NDQ

 

How I view it is that the DJI will reach 26150 (IG cash instrument price) to form its right shoulder before it's next significant leg down. With the SP and NDQ forming a sort of double top and complying with the down leg. 

 

However, tomorrow or day after will decide if there is a change in trend, if Mondays close price gets taken out lower then the significant leg down will begin.

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Not sure I am following you there @Theassistanttrader as if there is a H&S formation then it is already done, see my Weekly Chart below.  Problem is the neckline is far from the usual horizontal, one reason I think there will be another leg up to a final ATH neat the very long term resistance trendline (goes all the way back to the 70s).

DJI-Weekly_220519.thumb.png.0ee1102bad7d4439f771f4907a0661f0.png

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The Bear continues, for now, but wait, is that an end of market rally I see?  Often it seems that the final hours are indicative, especially as we close on the end of the week.  Whether valid or not I can't help feeling we are due a bounce before any major drop.  Last few hours may be signaling a bottoming out, early days but let's see.

USDJPY, of late in lock step with stocks, has also put in a bounce.  A weakening Yen may drive some buoyancy overnight in the Nikkei and then who knows what tomorrow will bring...

With most people assuming he Bear is upon us and trade negotiations with China are the negative catalyst I am minded to expect the opposite.  Funny how often the markets so this...

 DJI-1-hour_2906519.thumb.png.891ac4c73352efdb4a392eb886d6fe73.pngUSDJPY-4-hours_290519.thumb.png.0a71d93f732feee5b46cc285d41fe0b2.png

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So the Dow did rally as I thought (see previous post) but it was not yet the end of the bearish move I was looking for as there was to be another leg down, as we now know, that ended with a small Gap last Sunday, which precipitated a sharp rally off the Fib 38% support zone (off the ATH).  The rally was strong last week but what next?  Markets move in waves so perhaps we can anticipate a retrace bearish move?  But what about the medium term beyond that?  Well for me it is shrouded in too many scenarios just now, therefore very uncertain as follows:

  1. The Dow could turn immanently and drop hard;
  2. Put in an A-B-C retrace, with that immanent turn being the A;
  3. Close that Gap above and either turn before the early May top;
  4. Or turn just after but still not post a fresh ATH;
  5. Or post a fresh ATH to join SP500 and Nasdaq.

For me other markets offer stronger clearer set ups so I'm waiting for the fog to clear on stocks but will track all of the above scenarios in the meantime.

Interestingly the Dax offers some more clarity, albeit the same outline scenarios as above on the Dow do exist.  (see below my Dow chart for more on the Dax)

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Dax road map may hold insight for the rest of the stock indices

If we take a look at the long term Dax Monthly chart a series of 1-5 up and A-B-C down moves are clear since the 80s.  The most recent 1-5 bull phase was driven by the Central Banks interventions post the credit crunch, unprecedented QE and ZIRP/NIRP, which the Bulls seem to be anticipating will be restarted as a result of 1 poor US NFP reading (and this is supposed to be a strong economy..??).  All the signals point to this bull market having ended in Jan 2018 on the Dax, but in this crazy market one couldn't 100% rule out another higher high, yet.  At present though I think we have seen the top on the Dax and are now already in a long term Bear market that is simply retracing just now prior to a major drop.  I am projecting a drop in 1-5 form (a motive wave) but even if it is in a large A-B-C, setting up another massive Bull, it will drop a long way.  Zooming in a bit on the Monthly I can see a potential Head & Shoulders that may have concluded in May (or could have another leg up).  Either way the neckline is coincident with the long term channel line and a break of both of these lines, in an around the Fib 23% is an important moment for the Bear scenarios.

Looking at the Weekly chart there is a shorter term H&S possibility and the more recent price action is perhaps more aligned to a wave A-B (pink) that would project to a higher wave 2 (purple) retrace rally end, around about the Fib 76/78% off the Jan 2018 high.  However on the Daily chart, and this is where the Dax gets interesting as a signal for other stock indices, the Dax has a strong channel formation, which was broken and is currently being retested.  If the wave 2 (purple has already been posted then I would expect the channel line resistance to hold.  It may get retested a bit later to complete a short term A-B-C to set up a big drop (scenario 1).  If the line is broken though it sets up a new wave 2 (purple) turning point as mentioned above, which would pleasingly also close the current unclosed gap (scenario 2).

On the 4 hourly chart you can see the potential wave A (blue) test of the channel line in close up.  A possible small rally to the test point at the beginning of this coming week is likely.  The form of the rally is 1-5, so an A-B-C Bearish retrace is the most likely next phase.  There is NMD and Stochastic/RSI are over bought.

I will not trade stocks until things clarify, FX and Oil is much more certain in terms of possible scenarios and trading set ups, but which road map scenario is followed on stocks in the coming weeks is critical to eliminating scenarios down to a few strong candidates.  If either scenario 1 or 2 comes to pass we can expect a fair degree of whipsaw action, which is very dangerous to trade (unless you are a day trader and/or scalper, which I am not) so caution is required.  At this point I would not be betting on a fresh ATH on the Dax, although we may see one on the US Large Caps while the European and Japanese markets retrace.  For me it is important to track several related stock indices to get a better gauge of likely turning point than to just focus on 1.

Let's see what the next few weeks bring in terms of clarity, meanwhile I am trading elsewhere.

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Look for the Dow to trend down unless Powell drops interest rates, as cost of trade war will slowly erode any remaining gains from tax cuts. Dropping of rates will affect $ and bond value. Uncertainty regarding itchy  twitter fingered  POTUS and who he is going after next in relentless pursuit of narcissism. Recent experience with Mexico suggests a man who cannot be trusted and who considers himself a master dealmaker (rich coming from an ex bankrupt) without even the basest of understanding of the art of negotiation. Which is a shame. Dow bias is negative late 19 to 20-22.  Bearish sentiment it maybe, and have made plays to that effect. Would like to be proved wrong. (even if I lose a bit of money).

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Looks like the wave A (or possible 1) has concluded.  Might expect a bearish period to bring up a wave B (or 2) and then another rally.  Similar set ups on all the major stock indices.

DJI-1-hour_110619.thumb.png.0e152f78adf7451788156683d9dccb00.png 

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Looking for a small scale 1-2 retrace before the Bearish Phase really gets going.  Possibility of another test of the overhead resistance trend line (i.e. another leg up).  A break below near term support should trigger the Bearish phase in what is either going to be a wave B of an overall counter trend move OR a wave 2 of a 1-5 motive move that bring up a fresh ATH and probably the end of the Bull.

DJI-1-hour_120619.thumb.png.610e8ae61b113e3cba77d40c60b6d5fc.png 

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Coming back to the Dax, at the close to day (of the US markets that is) the Dax has crucially remained below the Daily channel line after a hard pin bar failed retest.  There are many scenarios in play though, which makes Stocks difficult for me to trade, I prefer fewer options.  Therefore I am staying out until things clarify.  Still it is important to keep tracking the scenarios until the fog lifts.

The scenarios I see in order of preference are:

  1. The market turns down, perhaps after a small relief rally (see 1 hour chart) and then puts in a wave B before rallying to conclude the overall move before the big Bear gets going
  2. Allied to fresh ATHs on US large Caps we see a fresh wave 2 high on European and Nikkei indices (in the case of the Dax to the Fib 76/78% zone
  3. The turn now is the end of the rally and the market hammers down past previous lows
  4. The market turns up and breaks through the channel line and carries on up to destinations unknowable...

As a perma (ish) Bear I discount scenario 4 so that really leaves me with 3 credible scenarios.  My lead scenario retains the integrity of the Dax channel line but allows for US large Caps to do their thing separately.

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Retrace trade is playing out well so far but not yet fully triggered for me.  If I look at the Dax I see the following:

  • Daily chart Channel line has repelled 2 retests now, right where I was targeting.  The first was with a pin bar on the Daily (Bearish candle signal) with Stochastic over bought (intermediate wave turn signal).  EWT count seems like a 1-5 to me, hence my Wave A or 1 marker.
  • On the Dax hourly you can see that move close up.  The market is seemingly trading in a tight channel just now, the breakout of which should resolve the medium term direction (fakeout not withstanding).
  • NMD at the Wave A/1 pin bar turn and credible small 1-2 (or A-B) retrace (brown) but a break of the support levels will be required to confirm.
  • SP500 looks similar, if less spiky, with a channel breakout and apparent failed retest, although I can't rul eout another small leg higher in the US markets at this point.  Again the support break is the key here (or alternatively a clear break up through resistance).
  • The FTSE100 may provide an early clue here as it approaches support and a Third channel breakout.

If you want some corroboration on this, check out the Real Vision Trade Ideas video clip of Joe Perry - 11 June (I just caught up on this yesterday since IG launched their collaboration with RV (excellent move IG, well done!).

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Haven't looked at stocks indices in a while, been focused on FX and catching that retrace move I have been tracking for ages, sometimes you gotta stay focused.  Assuming the retrace is indeed on I don't see stocks topping out for a while yet, at least not until USD completes its retrace (likely not at the exact moment).  For this reason, and because there is too much Bearish talk about and because of my associated technical analysis I see all the US large caps making new all time highs.  Likely FTSE100, Dax and Nikkei will make new retrace highs but probably not new ATHs (although if they did then that might well mark the end...).  In addition to all that the Futures & Options non commercial net COT positions are becoming more bullish now but are not yet at the levels I would expect before a major turn (i.e. they are not Bullish enough).

I wanted to take another look at the long term picture and am using the SP500, the largest and most heavily traded market  and the one with the largest futures and options market too (the E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE) and with good exposure to the Tech led bubble.

Going all the way back to the big picture Quarterly and monthly charts I have the following set up:

  • Massive expanding triangle since the Bretton Woods gold standard was abandoned and money creation via debt took hold.
  • Series of 1-5 rallies interspersed by A-B-C retraces in classic Elliot Wave Theory form.  The whole expanding triangle move can be labeled as one giant 1-5 (red labels).  When this (era) ends we can either expect an equally massive A-B-C retrace or a complete reversal of trend into a 1-5 down, no telling how far down it could carry.
  • The fundamentals back drop to this is a debt fueled boom and price inflation without wage inflation, plus gap between rich and poor widening massively, civil unrest, geopolitical upheaval, outlandish schemes to open space to tourism and colonising Mars,  and protest votes and protest actions in many countries across the world.  Time to pay the piper for all that debt fueled growth.
  • The oscillators show the extreme bullish nature of the rally since 2009, being driven by central bank policy rather than underlying economic recovery, or perhaps by the promise of a recovery that never quite materialised.
  • The anti Santa Clause Bear move looks like a 3-4 so we are, it seems, in the last hurrah...
  • The Weekly chart adds a very credible Triangle formation encompassing the whole move up from the 2009 turn.  The pennant occurs halfway between the wave 2 and 3 (purple), which is where you want it.  The lower line is strong support, stopping the sharp Christmas Bear in its tracks.  The upper line is also very strong with many confirmed turns.  A traditional parallel channel line does not work so the Narrowing Triangle set up is more favourable.
  • There is clean NMD building on the monthly, not usually something I usually look at on the monthly but this is not by any means a usual situation.  The confluence of the Quarterly (black) and Monthly (Purple) lines provides strong resistance but it should be noted that the market can credibly spike through these lines and they will remain valid if it closes back below them within the period, which gives several months/weeks to play with
  • If the market tops with a touch on the Monthly line then we are looking at a top of circa 3050-80, depending on when it happens.  However looking at the Daily chart I could see a scenario where a strong over exuberant exhaustion rally occurs that could push through to test the upper daily channel line (blue) before quickly returning below the monthly long term line.  There are many possible routes the market could take into any ending price action from here so it is pointless to detail all of them.  However I will be most keenly looking for either a rocket to an exhaustion spike, that will probably contain a small 3-4 retrace OR a series of sharp overlapping waves that put in the ending touch and drop through the lower channel line.  In any scenario a break of the lower channel line (blue) is a key breakdown signal.

For me stocks are too close to the end to hold longs, unless you subscribe to the "new normal" types and the "this time it's different" preachers, which I don't.  I am waiting for more price action to reveal a long term Short opportunity but this could be some months away.  The big watch out for anyone trading stock indices currently is the overlapping wave scenario, which will manifest as a series of whipsaw price action that could be seen as consolidation but could be death to short term traders.  For me I am waiting and watching from the sidelines and trading the clearer FX opportunities.

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US stock indices continue to grind up slowly, despite having made new ATHs across the large caps.  Not exactly a run away Bull move to my mind, perhaps more typical of a end game?  Stocks, it seems, tend to V bottom but dome at tops.  Well we certainly got a V bottom at Christmas and New Year just past and I am expecting this move, if it is the end stage wave 5, to be a slow train crash rather than an obvious one top out.

It might be a case of seeking several potential tops until the real one strikes and of course hitting the actual top is not required as there will be some retrace opportunities.  The point for me is to recognise that a top is in so that I can reenter the market to execute my long term Bear strategy.

I have been tracking stocks but not actively as my attention for trading is elsewhere but there are a few emerging factors with price action just now that might be worth a mention.

Since Christmas, the rally started out strong (a V bottom will do that) but then tapered off into a drawn out affair until we got a retrace around May (and the sell in may merchants came out if force, it's a pre-computerised trading saying folks, give it up!).  That retrace looks like a pennant to me, the Bulls might be calling it a 1-2 retrace that points to a rocket, but have we seen a wave 3 rocket?  Well not yet anyway.

There is a potential Triangle forming on price action that could give us some clues.  If this is an ending wave 5 then we may expect such a narrowing channel to form and to see whip saw price action within this so-called ending diagonal (or channel) with a series of overlapping waves that you typically only get in consolidations and ending channels.  As we are at ATHs I suspect the latter is more likely than consolidation.  There is NMD just now as the market touches and is repelled from the upper daily channel line.  Looking at the 1 hour chart we can see a strong short term rally up to the daily channel line and NMD at the hit and fail.  Is this a turn?  Could be but it would be a sell strength move and we could get a small drop and another test a little later, a little higher, to complete a cleaner 1-5, maybe when US markets open...

Is this THE top?  I doubt it just yet, I think there is more to play out here but it could be a swing low towards the lower channel line, which could set up another rally towards the end.  There are so many possible twists and turns it is too hard to project so patience to wait for price action to tell the tale is key for Bears.  If I was thinking with a more Bullish frame of mind I would really want to see some definitive breakout to the upside and on strength.  Volume us subdued and trending to the downside to me, which is not a great Bullish indicator.  Also non commercial COT data seems to have peaked and is trending down (not definitive at the respective large cap levels but suggestive of a cooling off that could drive another retrace move).

As I am biased to the Bearish side (buy low/sell high; weak economy; trade wars; political upheavals; over inflated valuations; Fed to the rescue; "this time it's different" - take yer pick) I will be waiting to see if the ending channel scenario plays out and trading accordingly.  My approach is to dip in at relevant channel tops with close stops until something breaks one way or the other.  A valid alternative approach is to wait for a definitive turn ad breakout to the down side before selling the rallies.  Right now I see no case for buying, unless or until there is an upside breakout.

DJI-Daily_140719.thumb.png.f516f9334bf59f32a9eefad379398145.pngDJI-1-hour_140719.thumb.png.25abf3e32f39613811cc0018f5f6ebb6.png

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mercury said:

US stock indices continue to grind up slowly, despite having made new ATHs across the large caps.  Not exactly a run away Bull move to my mind, perhaps more typical of a end game?  Stocks, it seems, tend to V bottom but dome at tops.  Well we certainly got a V bottom at Christmas and New Year just past and I am expecting this move, if it is the end stage wave 5, to be a slow train crash rather than an obvious one top out.

@Mercury

Picking a top is always testing but I have a feeling Wall St. Bulls may push for 30,000 you know how they like round numbers. 👿

Edited by Foxy

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I don't know that @Foxy in fact I can't find any evidence for round numbers being at all relevant, certainly not something I can consider as a trading methodology.  Having said that there is a technical set up that projects a wave top at around 29900 so maybe?  That said, ending waves do not behave as other waves do so the "rules" governing chartist projections are not necessarily valid in an ending wave.  The zone of the potential end is quite large on both Dow and SP500 such that more price action data is needed to hone in on the potential top.  I am not yet ready to take view so cannot discount 30,000, just would bank on it being a round numbers top is all...

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@Mercury

I think you may be reading to much into the statement, I simply mean resistance is often at or around a round number of sorts and that could be quite away off yet. 👿

us30-m30-fxpro-financial-services.png👿

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Fair enough @Foxy then why 30,000 and not 28000 or 29000?  Got a particular reason for 30k?

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Possible channel breakout on Dow open to add to the NMD and Daily chart upper channel line failed test.

DJI-1-hour_140719A.thumb.png.4b24f5754a5674a1593375cca1a7f8dc.png

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10 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Fair enough @Foxy then why 30,000 and not 28000 or 29000?  Got a particular reason for 30k?

@Mercury

I would have though 30,000 is a lot further than many people expect and it's the next most significant number, that's it pure and simple. From a trading point of view I wouldn't try to guess the value of the turning point any more than guess when it will happen, I just look for the Support or Resistance. 👿

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