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Stock market turning points - are we there yet?

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Guess what Reuters says today?  'Futures jump on possible near completion of phase 1 trade deal'

I swear to God this is absolute torture and I desperately need a new hobby.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Guess what Reuters says today?  'Futures jump on possible near completion of phase 1 trade deal'

I swear to God this is absolute torture and I desperately need a new hobby.

not bad, only 3 hours late ...

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21 hours ago, dmedin said:

50% retrace then drop back down again? :(

Why so sad?  More like Fib 62% it seems.  Break lower on FTSE100?

SPTRD-1-hour_051219.thumb.png.bcd227a40fb17bdf2798c63599da59b2.pngNIKKEI-1-hour_051219.thumb.png.69adb640f186b7e700d5efcbce9c2f88.pngFTSE100-1-hour_051219.thumb.png.c16b120bbe1e6a86f25608ffceaeaf72.pngDAX-1-hour_051219.thumb.png.c84e7b3ce7976dc4f87f72829ceb355d.png

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Us Large caps are stalling, and Europeans have stayed low.  Russell 2000 looks like it may have turned at the Fib78% and is now heading lower...

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HaHa!  And yet true, timing is everything and the Bear always gets the Bull in the end.  If not a case of IF but When.  Buy low sell high.  Bull markets end on over confidence ("this time it's different!"; Just look at the trend man!").

Check these out!  And so on and so on.

ATHyell.jpg.ada0a7045c919256a96156226bdfbe0c.jpgBlinkers.jpg.656cc08a5ce2251556e915967236e46f.jpgFedgotyourback.jpg.f776f6c6456f7ddcacf2961d6418288c.jpgGlobalslowdown.jpg.97797c00c13b5fdbf6b7e1f1920e4441.jpgMathsMyth.jpg.e6dbbba9aa893141986f65e616cd4375.jpgDeathofretail.jpg.4aa7b837d0981f32e8465c6a3a516369.jpgHerd.jpg.810d7e6c88a2d481e015538658d1ab14.jpg

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7 hours ago, Mercury said:

the Bear always gets the Bull in the end

 

Yes, which is why almost 100% of financial advisers tell their clients to buy and hold a diversified portfolio over the long term.  Because the only phenomenon that is reasonably certain is that things in general will go up in value over time (25+ years), so long as you don't put your eggs all in one basket 😮 

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14 hours ago, dmedin said:

Yes, which is why almost 100% of financial advisers tell their clients to buy and hold a diversified portfolio over the long term

Yes because they want you to keep your money invested.  That is how they make money so they have a vested interest in punters keeping their money in.

14 hours ago, dmedin said:

Because the only phenomenon that is reasonably certain is that things in general will go up in value over time (25+ years)

Yes in a bull market but as soon as things turn nasty (1929 nasty) that strategy fails spectacularly.  Unless you believe it will never happen again...?  It took 30 years for the stock markets to regain the 1929 highs.

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10 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Yes in a bull market but as soon as things turn nasty (1929 nasty) that strategy fails spectacularly. 

The last time that happened, the West nearly became communist.  They only held that off by implementing the welfare state and massive public works (not to mention war, to clear out the 'surplus population')!  I doubt the rich would allow things to get that bad again but you never know.

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25 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I doubt the rich would allow things to get that bad again

Gordon Brown tried to hold back the tides of the markets and was found out.  The current crop will fall to similar hubris.  They should have learned the lesson of King Canute but human nature never changes, which is why technical analysis works and swing spotting turns is a favourite occupation among the major traders of the World.

As to Communist, Marxism ets etc, topical in the UK right now with Marxist IRA sympathizers seeking to be elected to the highest offices in the land, it is a form of government that on a large scale has been proven to be bad for people, good for tyrants.  A lot of people forget that dictatorships rise out of not just far right politics but also far left.  Both are undesirable.  

As Churchill said, "democracy is the worst form of government, apart from all the others."  Knew a thing or two about tyranny is Churchill...

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21 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Gordon Brown tried to hold back the tides of the markets and was found out

He 'saved the world' haha ... big socialist-style bailout for the financial system, austerity for the people. 

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The Dax doesn't appear to like the Fed issuance.  Maybe the SP500 doesn't like it either, or maybe the USD collapse is weighing on sentiment.  Either way there is a decent chance this is a pivotal point.

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Seems to be holding on - for dear life - but within a rising wedge formation.

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Early days but looks like a possible turn on the Dax with most others showing similar signs.  If GBPUSD and EURUSD stage a rally this could provide some additional short term impetus.  Gold/Silver has been quite buoyant of late, maybe the gold bugs sense a stocks correction?  One to watch.

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Despite the US large caps progression into the santa rally and the Russell 2000 life accordingly the Dax and Nikkei have remained in doubt.  the FTSE100 did stage a rally but remains under the previous high at the Fib 88% and therefore still in bearish/sideways territory.  I remain unconvinced by the rally and so does the Vix it seems as it held onto its levels and even rally a bit towards the end of trading this week.

Most of the markets put in a bearish end yesterday and potentially at key resistance points.  There is nothing conclusive as yet and so early trading next week will be instructive.  I have a cheeky short on the Dax at present but currently I am favouring USD pairs and Gold/Silver as trading vehicles over stocks.

SPTRD-Daily_281219.thumb.png.4a0772c81e86abe820e8b479ea1790da.pngRUSSELL-Daily_281219.thumb.png.ea535f9577628bbe4a04b2a3da7ece9e.pngNIKKEI-Daily_281219.thumb.png.5694f812507a2f3035d7c1602c32f316.pngDAX-Daily_281219.thumb.png.bac411968a36136a5378a1f99ac64496.pngFTSE100-Daily_281219.thumb.png.c4a6c94c9a0dd2b0e44a186173a6a1e1.png164669300_VolatilityIndex_20191228_16_48.thumb.png.a291f02cfa28e2ad932c48109247f6e7.png 

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5 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Most of the markets put in a bearish end yesterday

 

So you don't think it's fairly reasonable to have a dip (possibly indicating taking profits) after such a prolonged rally?

 

Those are some pretty pessimistic predictions for FTSE 100 and DAX.  I take it you aren't actually trading  for such drastic moves, but speculating them.

Edited by dmedin

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19 hours ago, dmedin said:

So you don't think it's fairly reasonable to have a dip (possibly indicating taking profits) after such a prolonged rally?

Of course but you have plenty of perma bull posters...  I also think there is equally a good chance of a sustained bearish phase after such a strong rally, don't you?

19 hours ago, dmedin said:

Those are some pretty pessimistic predictions for FTSE 100 and DAX. 

Not really, also not predictions, merely scenario possibilities.  The level of pull back is far less that a "normal 10-20% correction after all and we have seen several bearish pull backs over the past few years, all of which I have traded successfully...

19 hours ago, dmedin said:

I take it you aren't actually trading  for such drastic moves, but speculating them.

Not sure what you mean here by speculating???  Perhaps you didn't read my post completely...

19 hours ago, Mercury said:

I have a cheeky short on the Dax at present but currently I am favouring USD pairs and Gold/Silver as trading vehicles over stocks.

 

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Dax has continued it bearishness all morning and now has an additional boost from weak US open.  It is approaching its daily channel lower line for a breakout test.  Meanwhile the Nikkei looks to have broken out after a bearish session last night, which also saw the Yen gather strength for a test of its daily channel.

Across the US large caps and the Russell 2000 we seem to have a 1H channel breakout, which if followed up will produce a test of respective daily channel lower lines.  Breaks of these will open the way to that significant bearish move (correction or otherwise...) that has been on the cards for a week or more.  Now that Santa is back in the North Pole and a slew of US economic data us due out over the next week and a half things could get interesting in a hurry...  Predictably the Vix is rallying and may be about to break a trend line to the upside

DAX-Daily_301219.thumb.png.48a3593db4477e30230fbdc689c26a23.pngDAX-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.d1080ef6e9b42e480ee2f90b7c064b8d.pngNIKKEI-Daily_301219.thumb.png.b1a729591ff8c9df749eda91ac76214a.pngNIKKEI-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.fa85be3221d2be4cea49d136fabdcdf5.pngDJI-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.477e2564ec799eb7f3810a046dc592b9.pngSPTRD-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.32da80598ba3e06c3c8e7332494f69af.png1718892641_VolatilityIndex_20191230_15_08.thumb.png.c9d74f9df4dd78518ea18c8a94e53e49.png

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Victoria says the Nasdaq tech 100 has returned 35% in 2019.  Imagine if someone had bought long and held, instead of trying to trade tops and bottoms. They would have made 35% in capital appreciation, plus income in the form of dividends, all from doing absolutely nothing!  Wow!    But apparently they are going to drag this year, so maybe we should all be selling short and holding :P

 

 

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FTSE 100 and DAX have both taken a big juicy dump today.

It's post-Christmas depression if you ask me.  Everybody seems snarky and unpleasant at this time of year, to me at least.

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I hope y'all had the presence o' mind to take a wee shortie at the appropriate time?  Viz,

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