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Gold Heading For 1276.61

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The plummet continues, gold currently at 1286.94 and heading for the weekly support level 1276.61.

Daily and Hourly chart;

49347186_XAUUSD()Daily.thumb.png.f2afbff5ace7d1af1cfe7d2e28688582.png

911074422_XAUUSD()H1.thumb.png.a7c01a73f26f5ff0460801601dcf714f.png

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@Caseynotes,

Yes I read an IG article this morning suggesting $1277 as support. I think the market is beginning to price in a positive trade end to US-China talks and a better US economy ahead than was expected. US economy still not in brilliant shape by any means but better than expectations. Therefore sentiment is changing.

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yeh @TrendFollower,  that's the most obvious support level on the chart and so that's where buyers can be expected to band together and try to rally. Though the news re; trade talks continues to be good though guarded I think the big news last week was the 2.6% US GDP beating the forecast 2.2%. Match that with US PMIs consistently in the 55s-60s shows the US economy is stronger than thought.

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@Caseynotes,

Yes agree.

Bearing in mind a US Government shutdown in all this, if the US economy was to improve further and reported earnings are positive and meet or exceed expectations then one can see a further decline in Gold as Equities continue rising. 

The price action of Gold is merely reacting to such possibilities and also activity taking place and economic reports.

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This was supposed to be just a throwaway thread but Gold just got a big boost from the very poor China exports data.

H4 chart;

image.thumb.png.7b7e665c21f3de2885155d96a0d61e39.png  

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@Caseynotes,

Do not underplay the importance of your thread. As I have said many times I am not keen on Gold from an investment perspective as I think over a longer time period there are better returning investments available. 

However from a trading perspective there is an opportunity on the long side which has the potential to last for a year or two should bad economic news continue to be released by the major nations around the globe. 

Gold excels when there is economic fear and uncertainty and this is being witnessed across US, EU and Asia which created a kind of ‘perfect storm’ scenario for Gold to shine. 

I have been adding to my positions on the dips and pyramiding upwards on both Gold and Silver. The trend since August 2018 is still clearly intact and on the long side. We will all trade precious metals differently using different methodologies so there is no one right way to trade it but the opportunity is there and present in Gold for those who wish to take it. 

As Gold is less choppy and volatile than other assets then there is also the chance to be more aggressive with the leverage but risk management is key and trailing stops are a must to ensure you don’t end up losing on the trades.

 

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@Caseynotes,

Excellent thread by the way on a real life trend that presents a clear trading opportunity and for those interested an investment opportunity. 

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Didn't think I would be using this thread more than once or twice but, gold has the prior low of 1280.6 in it's sights.

image.thumb.png.1347de91880824d43ab5bc3e2c332d38.png

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1276.5   target seems to make sense

Capture gold.PNG

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Agreed @elle, with trade talks in Beijing today and reports yesterday they were down to line by line fine tuning Gold needs to find solid support.

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Gold bears continuing their attack today on this strong support level having been beaten off yesterday. This 1280 looks to be in serious trouble.

As the article below points out, the fact that retail are scrambling to take on longs is probably the kiss of death for gold.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2019/04/15/Gold-Prices-Approach-April-Low-Hold-at-Symmetrial-Triangle-Support.html

image.thumb.png.b52366d5976b1f2b1b57344232f777b9.png

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9 minutes ago, elle said:

target reached  

yeah, just saw that, a determined push as well.

image.thumb.png.29680c0b73c88fe0f23af77276ede00f.png

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13 minutes ago, elle said:

target reached  

Capture tar.PNG

you may notice the "fib" I have on that chart   - sub 1270 target now

  • Like 1

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The big push through may well have been more of a big pull through as the 76.9% retail net longs had their stops taken out. (From the article linked above in this mornings post)

"Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.33 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.3% higher than yesterday and 9.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 4.5% higher from last week."

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Gold looking to test 1280 from the under side, if 1280 becomes resistance gold will have no choice but to look lower for support.

image.thumb.png.90ec98e3334168c0ac400cb8841dd48f.png

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On ‎16‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 14:30, elle said:

you may notice the "fib" I have on that chart   - sub 1270 target now

done :)

Capture gold.PNG

  • Like 1

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Gold move down related to today's dollar move up, DXY looking looking to break up out of 6 month consolidation, watch out dollar fx pairs.

Daily DXY chart;

image.thumb.png.581f97b5f4746c9e983d71fee8dd7776.png

 

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3 hours ago, elle said:

done :)

Capture gold.PNG

Nice one elle

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Gold has bounced back above $1271. Are the Bulls buying a bargain?

GOLD-1.png

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Gold made a strong attempt to get back above 1280 but beaten back, interesting given the current strength of the USD and Oil.

image.thumb.png.423c373618f5f657560a488b13214e00.png

 

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Gold slides back up through 1280.65 to 1286.30. A close above 1280 could lead to further gains next week.

Interesting 1:00 pm hourly candle where the US GDP beat sent price straight down to 1273 but was then bought back up again just as quick.

image.thumb.png.2c61c48baf31e0d0dc8bb23690eb5f94.png

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generally an upward trend 

Capture channel.PNG

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