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Our picks
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Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
"UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only Nikkei tested key support levels." Stay up to date on how the indices are moving and have your say.
Picked By
JamesIG, -
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Post in Successful strategy?
JamesIG posted a post in a topic,
Analysis of 43 million trades by DailyFX showed that 61% of trades are actually profitable (when looking at EURUSD specifically). Read more about that and check out their Podcast here. Have any questions? Ask away.
Picked By
JamesIG, -
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Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!
Mercury posted a topic in Commodities,
"Looks to me like my question as to whether the the 25 April turn was a rally end or a simple retrace may have been answered as Brent price dropped hard through the supporting lower channel line. I would like to see the recent lows broken to confirm but odds are that this market is now heading down. Could this mean that Stocks have also topped out?"-
- 7 replies
Picked By
JamesIG, -
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Post in Dax & Dow
Bell posted a post in a topic,
What are your long term opinions on market movements? "As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes."
Picked By
JamesIG, -
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Post in US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity
dmedin posted a post in a topic,
What's your trigger for opening a trade? Discuss with others on the Community, specifically about the US500: "I think there's a potential possibility of shorting S&P 500 brewing. I want to wait to see if the 20 MA does drop beneath the 50 MA."
Picked By
JamesIG, -
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Posts
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By Caseynotes · Posted
After the check at the pivot dax moved on to tag R1, currently back to join dow mid way between pivot and R1 awaiting the US market open. May be a tame Friday afternoon and into US market close as it's a public holiday in the US on Monday as well as UK. -
You may well be right @786Trader there are a lot of fundamentals based theories around so yours is as good as anyone's. My hypothesis is not based on Oil fundamentals but can be summed up in 2 words: Deflationary Depression. Regarding the Dow, this attached is my long term view. -
@ mindthegap Did not agree with much of the linked you tube video. Thought he was full of it to be honest. BS with a sprinkling of useful truth. He may have been to Asia but completely failed to understand them. Foxconn make Apple devices in China because there is no way Apple could make them as well, as quick or as cheaply in the US or even Mexico. For example. So either prices go up or Apples margins go right down. Plus everyone is paying more for anything made in china, including simple items like shoes. Not inflationary at all. Ever considered China may do to Apple what Trump has done to Huawei. Trump is a bull in China's shop. And we will all have to pick up the tab. -
Interesting postulation. The big bear? Not quite so convinced. For mostly obvious political reasons to do with supply and demand. Brent to $28? Not anytime soon. WTI crude an unlikely maybe, but Brent ? I am wholly unconvinced. The markets are not over supplied. Demand is as strong as ever. Not to mention sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Saudi will not continue to sell oil on the cheap, even if Trump tells them to, though the Russians will with their current batch of chlorinated crude. A $28 Brent implies a Dow @18000 or less or vast reserves newly discovered. A market adjustment where the Dow rocks down to 20K late 2020 is a solid maybe, but oil? Graphics tell a story, but the giant big bear has not convinced me. Personally, I can see oil increasing through political tension and the strong possibility of actual conflict. The strait of Hormuz controls 30% of global supplies. Support at the $68 mark is considerable.
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