Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Time to go Long on Coffee

Recommended Posts


From a 'Trend Following' perspective my thoughts are that the opportunity has not quite presented itself to go long 'Coffee'. Maybe from a 'Value' perspective it may seem enticing. 

Looking at the 'Daily' then Coffee - London Robusta is trading below its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. 

Looking at the 'Daily' then Coffee - New York Arabica has just crept above its 20 DMA but is below its 50, 100 and 200 DMA. The moving averages curves are all sloping downwards which is a bearish signal. 

Why do you think there is an opportunity to go long here? Is it simply because you think all the downside is priced in?

Coffee prices are historical lows. The article below maybe of interest to you.

Exclusive: Brazil weighs offering coffee options to support prices - sources


  • Like 1

Share this post

Link to post


Today's Coffee both Arabica and London are bearish. They seem like they may be travelling to a more downward destination albeit shorter term. It still does not present any reason from a 'Trend Following' perspective to go 'long'.

In fact it presents a potential short term 'short' trade opportunity if anything. 

Golden Rule (Trend Following Style) - Never trade against the trend

  • Thanks 1

Share this post

Link to post


Had you gone long on 4th April 2019 then you would be losing capital. One of the reasons would be that you would be trading against a strong bearish trend.

You also need to look at the supply / demand issues for Coffee and any fundamental factors which are driving coffee prices down. One would need to appreciate the background narrative being played before placing any trading position.

I would suggest either short coffee or if you feel uncomfortable shorting an asset then wait patiently and do nothing. Wait for a clear trend reversal. 

  • Like 1

Share this post

Link to post

For those looking at how to trade coffee for the first time, the following article may be of interest. 

How to trade coffee 


"If you’re looking to trade coffee, it’s important to understand the intricate, multi-billion-dollar economy it has created over the years. Here, we’re going to discuss coffee trading and give you more insight into the industry."


  1. Coffee trading basics
  2. What moves the prices of coffee
  3. Four steps to start trading coffee
  4. Coffee trading strategies
  5. Coffees trading hours 

Share this post

Link to post


Thanks for sharing this.

One thing the link to IG's piece on trading Coffee does not mention is that 'Speculation' also moves Coffee prices when there is anticipation in advance of a potential / possible outcome.

Hedge Funds are great at driving prices either higher or lower. 

Share this post

Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    Newest Member
    Joined 11/11/19 23:14
  • Posts

    • https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-prepare-to-pull-back-exacerbating-a-slowdown-in-u-s-oil-growth-11573478550
    • https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=MJ5utsDHP1U&feature=emb_logo
    • It seems Natural Gas is moving towards the 2500 price area. This seems more likely than 3000 price area at this moment in time. However, Nat Gas, is one of the kings of volatility and it can sharply spike upwards on a moment of severe weather being forecasted which leads to more usage of heating and decreases the humongous supply glut in the US.